Assessing model structure uncertainty through an analysis of system feedback and Bayesian networks.

Ecological predictions and management strategies are sensitive to variability in model parameters as well as uncertainty in model structure. Systematic analysis of the effect of alternative model structures, however, is often beyond the resources typically available to ecologists, ecological risk practitioners, and natural resource managers. Many of these practitioners are also using Bayesian belief networks based on expert opinion to fill gaps in empirical information. The practical application of this approach can be limited by the need to populate large conditional probability tables and the complexity associated with ecological feedback cycles. In this paper, we describe a modeling approach that helps solve these problems by embedding a qualitative analysis of sign directed graphs into the probabilistic framework of a Bayesian belief network. Our approach incorporates the effects of feedback on the model's response to a sustained change in one or more of its parameters, provides an efficient means to explore the effect of alternative model structures, mitigates the cognitive bias in expert opinion, and is amenable to stakeholder input. We demonstrate our approach by examining two published case studies: a host-parasitoid community centered on a nonnative, agricultural pest of citrus cultivars and the response of an experimental lake mesocosm to nutrient input. Observations drawn from these case studies are used to diagnose alternative model structures and to predict the system's response following management intervention.     

Estimating the Effect of Being Indoors on Total Personal Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution

A personal air quality model (PAQM) has been developed to estimate the effect of being indoors on total personal exposure to outdoor-generated air pollution. Designed to improve air toxics risk assessment, PAQM accounts for individual hourly activity patterns, indoor-outdoor differences, physical exercise level, and geographic location for up to 56 different population groups. Unique hourly activity profiles are specified for each population group; group members are assigned each hour to one of up to 10 different indoor and outdoor microenvironments. To illustrate PAQM use, we apply it to two example cases: a long-term example representative of situations where pollutant health impact is related to integrated exposure (as in the case of potentially carcinogenic air toxics) and a short-term example representative of situations where health impact is related to acute exposure to peak concentrations (as with ozone).

Case study results illustrate that personal exposure, and thus health risk, attributable to outdoor-generated air pollution is sensitive to indoor-outdoor differences and population mobility. Where health impact is related to long-term integrated exposure (e.g., air toxics), exposure and subsequent risk are likely to be lower than that estimated by previous modeling techniques which do not account for such effects.     

Capturing fugitive methane emissions from natural gas compressor buildings

Fugitive methane emissions account for about 50% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Canadian conventional oil and gas sector. Sources include leaks in natural gas transmission facilities such as pipelines and compressor stations. There are three sources of methane emissions in a compressor station. The first is emissions resulting from incomplete combustion in the engine; the second is leaks in valves, flanges and other equipment in the building; and the third results from instrument venting. Fugitive methane emissions may be in low concentration relative to air, and thus cannot be destroyed by conventional combustion (below flammability limits of about 5-16%). The present study investigates the feasibility of capturing methane emissions from a compressor station. Computer modelling of the flow patterns of lean methane emissions inside the building is used to show the influence of doors, vents and leak location. Simulations show that for a typical building most fugitive methane exits through the ridge vent provided that the main doors remain closed. When the extraction rate through the ridge vent is controlled, the methane concentration is at acceptable levels for destruction in a catalytic flow reverse reactor, that is, in the range of 0.1-1% by volume.     

Comparison of capillary pressure relationships of organic liquid-water systems containing an organic acid or base

The presence of surface-active solutes such as organic acids and bases may have a profound influence on the transport of organic liquid contaminants through their impact on the constitutive relationship of capillary pressure vs. saturation. This relationship is a function of the interfacial tension and wettability of the system, which, in turn, depend on the pH and the concentration of organic acids and bases that are present. This study examines the impact of pH and the concentration on the interfacial tension, contact angle, and capillary pressure of systems consisting of tetrachloroethylene, water, and quartz containing either octanoic acid or dodecylamine. In general, the ionic form of the solute tended to remain in the aqueous phase and reduced the capillary pressure through its impact on the interfacial tension and contact angle; on the other hand, the neutral form of the solute partitioned into the organic liquid phase and had a lesser impact on the capillary pressure for the same total mass of solute. A comparison of these data with data generated in previous research in similar systems where o-xylene was the organic liquid showed that the trends are analogous. Thus, the behavior of these two solvent systems seems to be driven primarily by the aqueous phase speciation of the solute, and the differences between the capillary pressure relationships for the two systems could be attributed to the pure system interfacial tension.     

Role of plants, mycorrhizae and phytochelators in heavy metal contaminated land remediation

Phytoremediation is a site remediation strategy, which employs plants to remove non-volatile and immisible soil contents. This sustainable and inexpensive process is emerging as a viable alternative to traditional contaminated land remediation methods. To enhance phytoremediation as a viable strategy, fast growing plants with high metal uptake ability and rapid biomass gain are needed. This paper provides a brief review of studies in the area of phytoaccumulation, most of which have been carried out in Europe and the USA. Particular attention is given to the role of phytochelators in making the heavy metals bio-available to the plant and their symbionts in enhancing the uptake of bio-available heavy metals.     

The Genetic Diversity of Native, Stocked, and Hybrid Populations of Brook Trout in the Southern Appalachians

Using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) restriction analysis and starch-gel electrophoresis of the CK-A2 locus product, we examined genetic variation in 311 brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from 11 native, 5 hatchery-derived, and 8 hybrid populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Native southern Appalachian fish were genetically distinct from hatchery-derived fish. Southern and hatchery-derived fish were reliably distinguished based on three mtDNA restriction sites. Native southern haplotypes differed from hatchery-derived haplotypes by an average of 0.84%. Northern hatchery-derived haplotypes varied little in mtDNA compared to native southern haplotypes. Introgression of mtDNA haplotypes and the CK-A2 locus varied among populations, and introgression of allozyme and mtDNA markers was positively correlated. Continued introductions of nonnative strains of brook trout in the southern Appalachians could simplify the genetic structure of native brook trout populations and eliminate unique genotypes.     

Designing Optimal Strategies to Attain the New U.S. Particulate Matter Standards: Some Initial Concepts

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes that a fundamental principle for designing optimal strategies to attain new U.S. particulate matter (PM) standards be minimization of community and susceptible group exposure to, and inhaled dosage of, ambient PM. Properly done, such minimization maximizes human health risk reduction. To illustrate implementation of such a principle, an initial prototype model, PM Exposure (PMEX), is described that calculates PM exposure and inhaled dosage as figures-of-merit for control strategy optimization. The model accounts for age-occupation and susceptible group activity patterns, indoor-outdoor concentration differences, and geographical location. Modeling results are presented for a hypothetical example, apportioning inhaled dosage among different classes of sources, under alternative assumptions about the relative potency of different PM species categories. The results, while preliminary, demonstrate that conclusions about source class contribution based on inhaled dosage can be appreciably different than those based on ambient air measurements or emission inventories.     

Sociality, exotic ectoparasites, and fitness in the plural breeding rodent Octodon degus

Social animals are susceptible to high infection levels by contact-transmitted parasites due to increased conspecific interaction. Exotic parasites are known to have adverse consequences on native hosts. We examined the relationship between social group size and exotic ectoparasite loads, and adult infection levels with per capita fitness and offspring survival in the plural breeding rodent Octodon degus in central Chile. Degus at our site were almost entirely infected by two exotic ectoparasites: the fleas Leptopsylla segnis and Xenopsylla cheopis. Neither group size nor number of females per group predicted the abundance of either exotic flea species. The per capita number of pups (per capita fitness) that emerged from burrow systems used by known social groups was negatively correlated with abundance of L. segnis but not X. cheopis. On adults, X. cheopis abundance was three times greater than L. segnis but was not significantly correlated with per capita fitness. In females, L. segnis abundance was negatively correlated with peak body mass during pregnancy. Adult ectoparasite load was not correlated with offspring survival. Based on these results, we hypothesize that high infection levels of L. segnis result in decreased reproductive fitness of adult female degus but are not a cost of sociality because parasite loads are not predicted by social group size. Further work is needed to experimentally test this hypothesis and to determine if L. segnis serves as a vector for a deleterious pathogen. Lastly, the lack of native ectoparasites may explain why a previous study at our site determined that behavioral adaptations needed to cope with high ectoparasite burdens (e.g., grooming) are not extensive in degus; they simply have not had the coevolutionary time needed for selection of these behaviors.     

Different isotope compositions of C32 DPEP and C32 etioporphyrin III in oil shale

The authors thank Dr. J. Connan [Société Nationale Elf Aquitaine (Production), Pau, France] for a sample of Julia Creek oil shale and helpful discussions; they also thank the Petroleum Research Fund (PRF 19791-AC2) for financial support.     

Isolation and fractionation of soil humin using alkaline urea and dimethylsulphoxide plus sulphuric acid

Humin, the most recalcitrant and abundant organic fraction of soils and of sediments, is a significant contributor to the stable carbon pool in soils and is important for the global carbon budget. It has significant resistance to transformations by microorganisms. Based on the classical operational definition, humin can include any humic-type substance that is not soluble in water at any pH. We demonstrate in this study how sequential exhaustive extractions with 0.1 M sodium hydroxide (NaOH) + 6 M urea, followed by dimethylsulphoxide (DMSO) + 6% (v/v) sulphuric acid (H₂SO₄) solvent systems, can extract 70–80% of the residual materials remaining after prior exhaustive extractions in neutral and aqueous basic media. Solid-state ¹³C NMR spectra have shown that the components isolated in the base + urea system were compositionally similar to the humic and fulvic acid fractions isolated at pH 12.6 in the aqueous media. The NMR spectra indicated that the major components isolated in the DMSO + H₂SO₄ medium had aliphatic hydrocarbon associated with carboxyl functionalities and with lesser amounts of carbohydrate and peptide and minor amounts of lignin-derived components. The major components will have significant contributions from long-chain fatty acids, waxes, to cuticular materials. The isolates in the DMSO + H₂SO₄ medium were compositionally similar to the organic components that resisted solvation and remained associated with the soil clays. It is concluded that the base + urea system released humic and fulvic acids held by hydrogen bonding or by entrapment within the humin matrix. The recalcitrant humin materials extracted in DMSO + H₂SO₄ are largely biological molecules (from plants and the soil microbial population) that are likely to be protected from degradation by their hydrophobic moieties and by sorption on the soil clays. Thus, the major components of humin do not satisfy the classical definitions for humic substances which emphasise that these arise from microbial or chemical transformations in soils of the components of organic debris.