Molecular orbital studies on brominated diphenyl ethers. Part II--reactivity and quantitative structure-activity (property) relationships

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are widely used as flame retardants and are increasingly turning up in the environment. Their structural similarities to polychlorinated biphenyls and thyroid hormones suggest they may be a risk to human health. The present study examines the reactivity of brominated diphenyl ethers (BDEs) on the basis of the electronic structures as calculated by semiempirical AM1 self-consistent field molecular orbital (SCF-MO) method. Frontier orbital energies were used to elucidate the reactivity of BDEs in electrophilic, nucleophilic and photolytic reactions. From an examination of the frontier electron densities, the regioselectivity, or orientation, of metabolic reactions of BDEs was predicted. Furthermore, satisfactory quantitative structure-activity (property) relationship (QSAR and QSPR) models were derived to calculate gas chromatographic and ultraviolet spectral properties and luciferase induction activities from the AM1-computed electronic parameters.     

Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems--results of a model validation study

The primary objective of the IAEA's BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) was to bring together experimental radioecologists and modellers to facilitate the exchange of information which could be used to improve our ability to understand and forecast radionuclide transfers within forests. This paper describes a blind model validation exercise which was conducted by the FWG to test nine models which members of the group had developed in response to the need to predict the fate of radiocaesium in forests in Europe after the Chernobyl accident. The outcomes and conclusions of this exercise are summarised. It was concluded that, as a group, the models are capable of providing an envelope of predictions which can be expected to enclose experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests over the time scale tested. However, the models are subject to varying degrees of conceptual uncertainty which gives rise to a very high degree of divergence between individual model predictions, particularly when forecasting edible mushroom contamination. Furthermore, the forecasting capability of the models over future decades currently remains untested.     

Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident

The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.     

SIMULATION OF FRESHWATER DISCHARGES FROM UNGAGED AREAS TO THE SEBASTIAN RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Due to alterations in the natural drainage system over the past several decades and intensified agricultural practices, freshwater discharges to the Sebastian River, Florida, have increased substantially. As a result, salinity patterns in the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River lagoon have been disrupted and the influx of nutrients has increased. Recently, the St. Johns River Water Management District has developed a 3‐D hydrodynamic and salinity model for the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River to study the effects of freshwater inflows, and to set guidelines for management of future freshwater discharges. Freshwater inflows to the Sebastian River are part of the input data of the hydrodynamic model. Except for the downstream drainage areas, inflows are gaged, and the data were used for calibration of the hydrologic simulations. Collectively, the downstream ungaged areas constitute about 16 percent of the total drainage area. Because of the significant contribution to the total drainage area, reliable estimates of freshwater discharges from the ungaged areas to the Sebastian River are needed. This case study illustrates the development of a set of model parameters, reflecting the hydrologic and physiographic characteristics of the entire region. In this context region applies to the watersheds located in the coastal area along the Indian River from Titusville in the north to Vero Beach in the south. The parameter set was first tested on a number of gaged drainage basins in the region, and was then applied to the ungaged areas.     

Mitigation of methane emission from an old unlined landfill in Klintholm,Denmark using a passive biocover system

Methane generated at landfills contributes to global warming and can be mitigated by biocover systems relying on microbial methane oxidation. As part of a closure plan for an old unlined landfill without any gas management measures, an innovative biocover system was established. The system was designed based on a conceptual model of the gas emission patterns established through an initial baseline study. The study included construction of gas collection trenches along the slopes of the landfill where the majority of the methane emissions occurred. Local compost materials were tested as to their usefulness as bioactive methane oxidizing material and a suitable compost mixture was selected. Whole site methane emission quantifications based on combined tracer release and downwind measurements in combination with several local experimental activities (gas composition within biocover layers, flux chamber based emission measurements and logging of compost temperatures) proved that the biocover system had an average mitigation efficiency of approximately 80%. The study showed that the system also had a high efficiency during winter periods with temperatures below freezing. An economic analysis indicated that the mitigation costs of the biocover system were competitive to other existing greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.     

On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The burden of proof in trade disputes and the environment

The WTO leaves discretion over environmental policies to its members, but requests that a fundamental non-discrimination principle is respected: National Treatment (NT). The provision seeks to prevent protectionist use of domestic policy instruments, requesting that when an imported product is sufficiently similar to a domestic product, they are treated identically. WTO adjudicators will often face severe informational problems in environmental disputes. Important for the practical implementation of NT is therefore the allocation of the burden of proof (BoP). This paper highlights basic implications of the BoP for the occurrence of judicial errors, for the environment and for welfare, using a setting where NT serves its intended role of supporting negotiated tariff liberalization. The paper suggests that NT may indeed constrain environmental policies, but that this may be desirable from an efficiency point of view. Also, BoP rules that benefit the environment may not benefit global welfare, and conversely.     

Interactions in male baboons: the importance of both males’ testosterone

To date, research on testosterone and behavior has focused on individuals, even when studying social behaviors that necessarily involve multiple participants. Here, we explore male responses to other males of different dominance ranks and testosterone levels in a population of wild baboons. In chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) of the Okavango Delta, a male’s testosterone is related to his rank trajectory and, therefore, the threat he poses to other males. To examine the effects of testosterone and rank on male–male interactions, we used playback experiments to measure how a target male responded to the simulated approach of another male, scoring responses by whether or not the subject moved away from the speaker in the first minute. High testosterone subjects did not move away from the speaker more often than low testosterone subjects, but high testosterone callers elicited a move more often than low testosterone callers. When the combined testosterone of the subject and caller was high, moves were most common. The rank relationship between subject and caller did not predict moves, but the effect of combined testosterone on moving was most pronounced in adjacently ranked males. Adjacently ranked, high testosterone males are the most likely to be competing for each others’ rank, and our experiments on these dyads elicited the most moves. Both behavioral and experimental observations indicate that testosterone may be more important than the rank relationship in predicting the outcome of male–male interactions. Furthermore, combined information on the testosterone of both males was the best predictor of results, highlighting the utility of dyadic analyses when relating testosterone to behavior.