From Global to Local: Providing Actionable Flood Forecast Information in a Cloud‐Based Computing Environment

Global and continental scale flood forecast provide coarse resolution flood forecast, but from the perspective of emergency management, flood warnings should be detailed and specific to local conditions. The desired refinement can be provided by the use of downscaling global scale models and through the use of distributed hydrologic models to produce a high‐resolution flood forecast. Three major challenges associated with transforming global flood forecasting to a local scale are addressed in this work. The first is using open‐source software tools to provide access to multiple data sources and lowering the barriers for users in management agencies at local level. This can be done through the Tethys Platform that enables web water resources modeling applications. The second is finding a practical solution for the computational requirements associated with running complex models and performing multiple simulations. This is done using Tethys Cluster that manages distributed and cloud computing resources as a companion to the Tethys Platform for web app development. The third challenge is discovering ways to downscale the forecasts from the global extent to the local context. Three modeling strategies have been tested to address this, including downscaling of coarse resolution global runoff models to high‐resolution stream networks and routing with Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID), the use of hierarchical Gridded Surface and Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) distributed models, and pre‐computed distributed GSSHA models.     

AERCOARE: An overwater meteorological preprocessor for AERMOD

AERCOARE is a meteorological data preprocessor for the American Meteorological Society and U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model (AERMOD). AERCOARE includes algorithms developed during the Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) to predict surface energy fluxes and stability from routine overwater measurements. The COARE algorithm is described and the implementation in AERCOARE is presented. Model performance for the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was evaluated against tracer measurements from four overwater field studies. Relatively better model performance was found when lateral turbulence measurements were available and when several key input variables to AERMOD were constrained. Namely, requiring the mixed layer height to be greater than 25 m and not allowing the Monin Obukhov length to be less than 5 m improved model performance in low wind speed stable conditions. Several options for low wind speed dispersion in AERMOD also affected the model performance results. Model performance for the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was found to be comparable to the current EPA regulatory Offshore Coastal Model (OCD) for the same tracer studies. AERCOARE-AERMOD predictions were also compared to simulations using the California Puff-Advection Model (CALPUFF) that also includes the COARE algorithm. Many model performance measures were found to be similar, but CALPUFF had significantly less scatter and better performance for one of the four field studies. For many offshore regulatory applications, the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was found to be a viable alternative to OCD the currently recommended model.

Implications: A new meteorological preprocessor called AERCOARE was developed for offshore source dispersion modeling using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory model AERMOD. The combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach allows stakeholders to use the same dispersion model for both offshore and onshore applications. This approach could replace current regulatory practices involving two completely different modeling systems. As improvements and features are added to the dispersion model component, AERMOD, such techniques can now also be applied to offshore air quality permitting.     

Satellite-Derived Mean Fire Return Intervals As Indicators Of Change In Siberia (1995–2002)

Under current climate change scenarios, temperatures in Siberia are expected to increase, and consequently, fire is also expected to increase. Potential climate-induced change is difficult to assess in Siberia because ground-based fire data are not complete. This investigation introduces a method by which potential climate-induced change can be remotely evaluated. Mean fire return intervals are established for 58 ecosystems across Siberia using eight years of satellite-based area burned data (1995 to 2002). Mean fire return intervals should decrease under current climate change scenarios, however the results do not currently demonstrate consistent evidence of fire-induced change. The overall boreal forest mean fire return interval is lower than the published mean, inferring increased fire. Most notably, using satellite data to calculate mean fire return intervals in individual ecosystems for the entire population of fire is shown to be a viable method by which potential climate-induced land cover change can be evaluated.     

Trisomy 12 mosaicism in phenotypically normal fetuses following prenatal detection

We report three cases of amniocentesis in which mosaicism for trisomy 12 was detected in two or more independent cultures. The parents elected to terminate the pregnancy in all three cases. Follow-up studies in two of the cases confirmed the mosaicism in fetal tissues (in subcutaneous tissue in one case; in fetal lung in the other), but not in blood. No fetal anomalies were evident by ultrasound or at autopsy. These results along with other reported cases demonstrate the difficulty in counselling for mosaic trisomy 12.     

Appraisal and Modification Of West-Gaeke Method For Sulfur Dioxide Determination

The West-Gaeke method has been shown to be feasible for detecting changes in SO₂ concentration greater than 10%. Reliable results can be obtained if one makes up stock solutions of the pararosaniline dye from the same powder batch at the same time. Gum arabic stabilizes the SOvtetrachloromercurate complex at concentrations of SO₂ > 8 μg/ml.     

Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of four alternatives for using by-products of cane sugar production

Cane sugar production by-products can be considered either as waste, affecting the environment, or as a resource when an appropriate valorization technology is implemented.This study is made with the objective of identifying and quantifying the aspects which have the largest environmental impact of four alternatives for using by-products and wastes from the cane sugar process and suggest improvements in the systems.For this analysis a cane sugar mill was chosen in Cuba and four alternatives were designed for the by-product valorization. The first alternative represents the conventional sugar production; its main characteristics are the use of synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, the bagasse combustion and the usage of molasses and agricultural wastes as animal food. Other wastes constitute emissions to the environment. Alternatives II, III and IV incorporate more use of by-products and wastes. Alternative II considers the use of wastewater, filter cake and ashes for the substitution of synthetic fertilizers. In Alternative III, the filter cake and wastewater are used for biogas production and Alternative IV integrates alcohol and biogas production into the sugar production process.The assessment is done by means of Life Cycle Assessment, according to the ISO 14040 series by using the SimaPro 6.0 LCA software, Ecoinvent database and the Eco-indicator 99 methodology. As a functional unit the daily sugar production of the mill was defined (216 t/d). The sugar was selected as main product and all the by-products were assumed to substitute other products on the market, avoided products.For the four alternatives, the agricultural stage shows the greatest impact due to land use, fuel and agrochemicals consumption. In the industrial stage, the electricity cogeneration with bagasse has the highest impact as to respiratory effects due to the emission of tiny particle material into the atmosphere. The major difference between the alternatives is found in the resource impact category. The advantage of producing alcohol, biogas, animal food and fertilizers from the by-products is made obvious through the comparative study for resource savings.