DECISION SUPPORT FOR ALLOCATION OF WATERSHED POLLUTION LOAD USING GREY FUZZY MULTIOBJECTIVE PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: This paper uses the grey fuzzy multiobjective programming to aid in decision making for the allocation of waste load in a river system under versatile uncertainties and risks. It differs from previous studies by considering a multicriteria objective function with combined grey and fuzzy messages under a cost benefit analysis framework. Such analysis technically integrates the prior information of water quality models, water quality standards, wastewater treatment costs, and potential benefits gained via in‐stream water quality improvement. While fuzzy sets are characterized based on semantic and cognitive vagueness in decision making, grey numbers can delineate measurement errors in data collection. By employing three distinct set theoretic fuzzy operators, the synergy of grey and fuzzy implications may smoothly characterize the prescribed management complexity. With the aid of genetic algorithm in the solution procedure, the modeling outputs contribute to the development of an effective waste load allocation and reduction scheme for tributaries in this subwatershed located in the lower Tseng‐Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Research findings indicate that the inclusion of three fuzzy set theoretic operators in decision analysis may delineate different tradeoffs in decision making due to varying changes, transformations, and movements of waste load in association with land use pattern within the watershed.     

Sensitivity analysis of ground-level ozone concentration to emission changes in two urban regions of southeast Texas

Air pollutant emission is one of the predominant factors affecting urban air quality such as ground-level ozone formation. This paper assesses the impact of changing emission inventory scenarios, based on combinations of point, mobile, area/non-road and biogenic sources, on the tropospheric ozone concentration in two southeast Texas urban areas, i.e. Houston-Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur, during the rapid ozone formation event (ROFE) on August 25, 2000. The EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with 1999 national emission inventory (NEI99) estimates and updated SAPRC99 chemical mechanism are used in the sensitivity analysis for twelve different emission scenarios. Based on model results, it is found that the point source emission of NOx and VOC contributes the greatest ozone peak in the ROFE. Removing Texas point sources of VOC and NOx emission from the inventory results in a reduction in peak O3 concentration by 128 and 70 ppbv in Houston urban area, respectively. Similar but less drastic impact from point source is also observed in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. The effect on peak ozone concentration due to mobile, area and non-road sources emissions are less significant compared to that of point source emission. Reducing VOC emission appears to be more effective than reducing NOx emission in lowering peak O3 concentration in the studied region. Although biogenic emission can contribute up to 37 ppbv of peak ozone level over a large area, the affected area is away from the urban region of concern, and should not be the main cause for O3 non-attainment in the two urban areas. Removing CO emission from mobile sources does not lead to significant reduction (< 1 ppbv) in ozone concentrations. The modeled data also show that the transport of O3 precursors from adjacent states can cause a significant ozone plume near Beaumont due to its proximity to the state border based on the conditions during the August 25, 2000 O3 episode.     

TWO PRACTICAL APPROACHES FOR DETERMINING THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF RAINFALL DEPTH PERCENTILES1

ABSTRACT: A simple simulation type approach and a statistical method are proposed for determining the confidence interval of the T‐year frequency rainfall percentiles (or precipitation extremes) for generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. The former method is based on the Monte Carlo testing procedure. To generate realizations, the covariance structure of the three parameters of GEV is investigated using an observed information matrix of the likelihood function. For distributions with realistic parameters, the correlation between the location and the scale parameters is practically constant when the shape parameter varies around values close to its optimal value. The latter method is based on likelihood ratio statistics. In the case where the joint confidence surface for shape parameters and estimates is plotted with lines of best estimates, the region where the estimated best percentile value can be chosen as a possible estimate is part of the joint confidence surface. The projection of this bounded region on axis of percentile is defined as the effective confidence interval in this research. The use of this effective interval as the confidence interval of the percentile of T‐year frequency rainfall is particularly recommended because it is stable for T and it reflects variations in all three parameters of GEV appropriately.     

Importance and uncertainty analysis of flue gas scrubber systems with extreme reliability parameter values

Although reliability analyses have been used to improve the reliability of industrial systems, generic reliability data from publications, such as component failure intensities and repair times, are used to calculate reliability measures instead of the real reliability data collected from the plant. One reason is that the repair history of the components is not well managed in the plant. In this work, the effect of extreme reliability parameter values on system reliability and unavailability is studied. To do this, importance and uncertainty analysis of the components of flue gas scrubber systems is carried out, and results calculated with the extreme reliability parameter values are compared with those with the mean reliability values of the systems. The different reliability parameter values can give us totally different ranks of the components critical to the reliability of the representative scrubber system. Consequently, the effort to establish a reliable database is emphasized to perform accurate reliability analysis of the system.     

Dietary separation between two blennies and the Pacific gregory in northern Taiwan: evidence from stomach content and stable isotope analyses

Two blennies, Ecsenius lineatus Klausewitz and Ecsenius namiyei (Jordan and Evermann), and a cohabiting territorial damselfish, the Pacific gregory, Stegastes fasciolatus (Ogilby), were collected from shallow reefs in northern Taiwan between September and November 2004, and in October 2005 for stomach content and δ ¹³C and δ ¹⁵N analyses in an effort to study how extensively their food sources overlapped and to delineate the pattern of cohabiting interactions. These analyses showed differences in food use between the Ecsenius blennies and S. fasciolatus. However, there were inconsistencies. Epiphytic algae were their major food items of E. namiyei and E. lineatus. Macroalgae were rarely taken. Nevertheless, δ ¹³C and δ ¹⁵N signatures suggested that E. namiyei and E. lineatus might have assimilated mainly macroalgae-derived detritus instead of epiphytic algae. In contrast, macroalgae were the major food items of S. fasciolatus, followed by epiphytic algae. Differences in both δ ¹³C and ¹⁵N values indicated that for S. fasciolatus, algae (both macroalgae and epiphytic algae) might not be as important as the stomach contents showed. Instead, polychaetes were possibly its major food source. Differences between stomach contents and evidence from the separation of stable isotope signatures between blennies and the Pacific gregory indicate that some of the interspecific interactions derived from exploitative competition may have been alleviated. Moreover, their widespread territory overlap is possibly a sign of mutualism: S. fasciolatus allows territory sharing, while Ecsenius blennies, in return, clean up the algal mat by removing sand and detritus.     

Development of an empirical equation for the transverse dispersion coefficient in natural streams

In this study, a new empirical equation for the transverse dispersion coefficient has been developed based on the hydraulic and geometric parameters in natural streams using a regression technique. First, a total of 32 data sets in 16 streams were collected. Among those sets, 16 sets were used for deriving the new equation, and the other 16 sets were used for verifying the equation. Then, through dimensional analysis, it was found that the normalized transverse dispersion coefficient is associated with several parameters such as sinuosity, aspect ratio, and a friction term. The robust least square method was applied to estimate regression coefficients. The newly proposed equation was proven to be superior in explaining the dispersion characteristics of natural streams more precisely compared to the existing equations.     

Comments on selecting a geographic information system for environmental management

Many organizations in environmental fields stand to benefit from the use of a geographic information system (GIS). Selecting a GIS to implement within an organization can be a difficult task that is often required of people with little experience using a GIS. A framework for evaluating competing GIS considers cost, functionality, ease of use, future stability, development potential, support availability, and maintenance costs. Initial cost involves more than the actual purchase price of hardware and software; it includes the cost of building the data base and training users within the organization. Functionality refers to the depth and breadth of capabilities of a GIS. Issues involved in evaluating functionality include the appropriateness of raster vs vector processing and the ability to add your own software. Ease of use is important, but there is generally a trade-off with functionality. The degree of centralization of use of the GIS within the organization affects requirements for ease of use. GIS are rapidly evolving, and as a result it is important to select a system with high potential for future development. With the proliferation of companies offering GIS it is important to select one that is likely to survive and prosper. Similarly, the ability to find support in the forms of technical help, advice, and possibly even skilled employees can be significant.     

MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF INFORMATION FOR GROUND WATER PROTECTION: THREE TEST CASES1

ABSTRACT: Public awareness of the importance of protecting the nation's water supplies is growing. Recent studies have shown a substantial increase in the perceived value of protecting water supplies for future use. In the Northeast, much of the water supply comes from ground water. This paper examines three test cases, each with different approaches for using geographic information systems (GIS) for ground water protection planning. In Wellfleet, Massachusetts, build-out scenarios were used to support regulatory and land acquisition decisions for siting a public water supply well. In Hadley, Massachusetts, the focus was on a decision support model for septic suitability assessment in support of regulatory efforts and infrastructure expansion. For Cortland County, New York, an interactive graphic user interface was created to facilitate the manipulation and recombination of a large volume of data by county officials to target ground water pollution prevention efforts. As personal computers become more powerful and inexpensive, and GIS data become more readily available, community and county governments are turning to GIS as a tool for developing comprehensive resource protection plans. Once appropriate data are input, a GIS can effectively and efficiently be used to derive outcomes of various land use plans and regulations.