Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Dynamics of the Mite Communities (Acari: Parasitiformes) in Nests of the Parus major

The dynamics of nest-dwelling mites from the nests of the great tit in the protected area of Kamchia Mountain in Northeastern Bulgaria was investigated. The mite fauna inhabiting the nests of great tit differs significantly in terms of the degree of infestation, species richness, abundance and structure of communities in study years. There are statistically significant differences in the specimens’ number between 2014 and the other years 2012, 2013 and 2015. The mite species such as Dermanyssus gallinae, Androlaelaps casalis and Ornithonyssus sylviarum demonstrated significant changes in the abundance over the study years. A relation between the abundance of a species and the species diversity in the nests was not registered. Comparison of the annual dynamics of mites in the nests of great tit and the nests of semi-collared flycatcher for the same period of time and for the same environment, showed similarities—a significant fluctuation in the abundance of mites over the years and differences—in the species richness. Regarding the structure of the communities, both similarities and differences were recorded.

     

Origin of major ions in monthly rainfall events at the Bamenda Highlands, North West Cameroon

Rainwater characteristics can reveal emissions from various anthropogenic and natural sources into the atmosphere. The physico-chemical characteristics of 44 monthly rainfall events （collected between January and December 2012） from 4 weather stations （Bamenda, Ndop plain, Ndawara and Kumbo） in the Bamenda Highlands （BH） were investigated. The purpose was to determine the sources of chemical species, their seasonal inputs and suitability of the rainwater for drinking. The mean pH of 5 indicated the slightly acidic nature of the rainwater. Average total dissolved solids （TDS） were low （6.7 mg/L）, characteristic of unpolluted atmospheric moisture/air. Major ion concentrations （mg/L） were low and in the order K＋ 〉 Ca2＋ 〉 Mg2~ 〉 Na＋ for cations and NO3 〉〉 HCO3 〉 SO] 〉 CI- 〉 PO3- 〉 F- for anions. The average rainwater in the area was mixed Ca-Mg-SO4-CI water type. The CI-/Na＋ ratio （1.04） was comparable to that of seawater （1.16）, an indication that N a＋ and CI originated mainly from marine （Atlantic Ocean） aerosols. High enrichments of Ca2＋, Mg2＋ and SO2- to Na＋ ratios relative to seawater ratios （constituting 44% of the total ions） demonstrated their terrigenous origin, mainly from Saharan and Sahelian arid dusts. The K＋/Na＋ ratio （2.24）, which was similar to tropical vegetation ash （2.38）, and NO3 was essentially from biomass burning. Light （〈 100 mm） pre-monsoon and post-monsoon convective rains were enriched in major ions than the heavy （〉 100 mm） monsoon rains, indicating a high contribution of major ions during the low convective showers. Despite the acidic nature, the TDS and major ion concentrations classified the rainwater as potable based on the WHO guidelines.