基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

Introduced and cryptogenic species in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia

Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a large (1,930 km²), temperate embayment in southern Victoria, Australia. Extensive bay-wide surveys of PPB have occurred since 1840. In 1995/1996 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests (CRIMP) undertook an intensive evaluation of the region with the aims of developing a comprehensive species list of native and introduced biota and contrasting previous bay-wide assessments with a current field survey in order to detect new incursions and discern alterations to native communities. Two methods were used to meet these aims: a re-evaluation of regional museum collections and published research in PPB to identify and determine the timing of introductions; and field surveys for benthic (infauna, epifauna and encrusting) organisms between September 1995 to March 1996. One hundred and sixty introduced (99) and cryptogenic (61) species were identified representing over 13% of the recorded species of PPB. As expected, the majority of these are concentrated around the shipping ports of Geelong and Melbourne. Invasions within PPB appear to be increasing, possibly due to an increase in modern shipping traffic and an increase in aquaculture (historically associated with incidental introductions); however the records of extensive biological surveys suggest that this may, in part, be an artefact of sampling effort. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere studies, PPB (and Southern Hemisphere introductions in general) have significantly different suites of successfully invading taxa. PPB is presented as one of the most invaded marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Toxicity of uranium mine receiving waters to early life stage fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in the laboratory.

Elevated concentrations of arsenic, nickel, and molybdenum in aquatic systems around northern Saskatchewan uranium mines are an environmental concern. Early life stage fathead minnows were used to assess toxicity from several aquatic systems near the Key Lake and Rabbit Lake uranium operations. Hatching success of fish embryos exposed to waters receiving contaminants associated with uranium ore milling was reduced by 32-61% relative to controls. Mortality differed in two lakes receiving mill effluents because of opposing factors influencing metal toxicity (i.e. low pH and high hardness). In one mill receiving water (Fox Lake), larval mortality was 0%, whereas mortality was 85% in water collected from a downstream location (Unknown Lake). Fish embryos exposed to open-pit dewatering effluent receiving waters, or water from a flooded open pit (i.e. pit waters), hatched 26-39% earlier than those exposed to reference or control water. The combination of low water hardness and elevated nickel concentrations in pit waters contributed to the early hatching. Egg hatchability and hatching time were more sensitive indicators of toxicity than 'standard' endpoints, like larval mortality and growth. Current regulatory emphasis on single contaminants and standard toxicological endpoints should be re-evaluated in light of the complex interaction among confounding variables such as pH, hardness. conductivity, and multi-metal mixtures.