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Spatially dependent data arises in many applications, and Gaussian processes are a popular modeling choice for these scenarios. While Bayesian analyses of these problems have proven to be successful, selecting prior distributions for these complex models remains a difficult task. In this work, we propose a principled approach for setting prior distributions on model variance components by placing a prior distribution on a measure of model fit. In particular, we derive the distribution of the prior coefficient of determination. Placing a beta prior distribution on this measure induces a generalized beta prime prior distribution on the global variance of the linear predictor in the model. This method can also be thought of as shrinking the fit towards the intercept-only (null) model. We derive an efficient Gibbs sampler for the majority of the parameters and use Metropolis–Hasting updates for the others. Finally, the method is applied to a marine protection area dataset. We estimate the effect of marine policies on biodiversity and conclude that no-take restrictions lead to a slight increase in biodiversity and that the majority of the variance in the linear predictor comes from the spatial effect.  相似文献   
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Using information derived from the voluntary system of notification of congenital malformations in England and Wales, the birth prevalence of anencephaly and spina bifida was estimated to have declined by 80 per cent from 31.5 to 6.2 per 10 000 between 1964–1972 and 1985. Over the same period, notified terminations of pregnancy with a suspected fetal central nervous system abnormality increased from less than 1 per cent to 56 per cent of neural tube defect births and central nervous system terminations combined, accounting for 31 per cent of the decline in births. Routinely collected national statistics provide a method for monitoring the impact of screening for open neural tube defects. However because they are incomplete and lack detail an alternative method of monitoring is needed. This paper includes an outline of such a method, together with the results of a pilot study designed to assess the feasibility of monitoring screening in the Oxford Region.  相似文献   
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The birth prevalence rate of each common autosomal trisomy generally increases with advancing maternal age and there is a substantial fetal loss rate between late first trimester and term. The literature is reviewed in order to provide the best estimates of these rates, taking account where possible of biases due to prenatal diagnosis and selective termination of pregnancy. There is an almost exponential increase in Down syndrome birth prevalence between ages 15 and 45 but at older ages the curve flattens. There is no evidence of the claimed relatively high birth prevalence at extremely low ages. Gestation-specific intra-uterine fetal loss rates are estimated by follow-up of women declining termination of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis, comparison of observed rates with those expected from birth prevalence and comparison of age-specific curves developed for prenatal diagnosis and birth. Down syndrome fetal loss rates reduce with gestation and increase with maternal age. Edwards and Patau syndrome birth prevalence is approximately 1/8 and 1/13 that of Down syndrome overall, although the ratio differs according to maternal age, particularly for Patau syndrome where it reduces steadily from 1/9 to 1/19. Fetal loss rates are higher for Edwards and Patau syndromes than for Down syndrome.  相似文献   
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Amniocentesis was performed for maternal age and subsequent cytogenetic studies revealed a male fetus with a mosaic karyotype, one cell line having a duplication for the long arm of chromosome 7. The pregnancy was terminated and the two cell lines confirmed in varying proportions in the fetal tissues. External examination of the fetus revealed only growth retardation and a high forehead. The lack of phenotypic defects and the possible aetiology of the de novo rearrangement are considered.  相似文献   
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