COOPERATIVE MODELING: BUILDING BRIDGES BETWEEN SCIENCE AND THE PUBLIC1

As freshwater resources become more scarce and water management becomes more contentious, new planning approaches are essential to maintain ecologic, economic, and social stability. One technique involves cooperative modeling in which scientists and stakeholders work together to develop a computer simulation model to assist in planning efforts. In the Middle Rio Grande region of New Mexico, where water management is hotly debated, a stakeholder team used a system dynamics approach to create a computer simulation model to facilitate producing a regional plan. While the model itself continues to be valuable, the process for creating the model was also valuable in helping stakeholders jointly develop understanding of and approaches to addressing complex issues. In this paper, the authors document results from post‐project interviews designed to identify strengths and weaknesses of cooperative modeling; to determine if and how the model facilitated the planning process; and to solicit advice for others considering model aided planning. Modeling team members revealed that cooperative modeling did facilitate water planning. Interviewees suggested that other groups try to reach consensus on a guiding vision or philosophy for their project and recognize that cooperative modeling is time intensive. The authors also note that using cooperative modeling as a tool to build bridges between science and the public requires consistent communication about both the process and the product.     

Detecting the signal of atmospheric N deposition in recent national-scale vegetation change across Britain

Model estimates of NO_y and NH_x deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km². The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NH_x deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km² variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NO_y deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.     

RESERVOIR WATER LEVEL IMPACTS ON RECREATION,PROPERTY, AND NONUSER VALUES1

ABSTRACT: Wise interbasin management of Southeastern U.S. water resources is important for future development. Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa and Apalachicola‐Flint‐Chattahoochee River basins' water usage has evolved from power generation to multiple uses. Recreation and housing have become increasingly valuable components. Changing use patterns imply changing resource values. This study focused on six Alabama reservoirs, using contingent valuation questions in on‐site, telephone, and mail surveys to estimate impacts on lakefront property values, recreational expenditures, and preservation values for scenarios of permanent changes to reservoir water quantity. As summer full‐pool duration decreased, lakefront property value decreased, and as duration increased, property values increased, but at a lesser rate. Similar findings occurred for winter draw down alternatives. Permanent one‐foot reductions in summer full‐pool water levels resulted in a 4 to 15 percent decrease in lakefront property values. Recreational expenditures decreased 4 to 30 percent for each one‐foot lowering of reservoir water levels. Current nonusers of the six reservoirs showed strong preferences for protecting study reservoirs with willingness to pay values of 47 per household or approximately 29 million for the entire six‐reservoir watershed basin area. Resource management based on historic use patterns may be inappropriate and more frequent and comprehensive valuation of reservoir resources is needed.     

Prediction and uncertainty source analysis of the spatial and temporal disturbance from off-road vehicular traffic in a complex ecosystem

Vehicle use during military training activities results in soil disturbance and vegetation loss. The capacity of lands to sustain training is a function of the sensitivity of lands to vehicle use and the pattern of land use. The sensitivity of land to vehicle use has been extensively studied. Less well understood are the spatial patterns of vehicle disturbance. Since disturbance from off-road vehicular traffic moving through complex landscapes varies spatially, a spatially explicit nonlinear regression model (disturbance model) was used to predict the pattern of vehicle disturbance across a training facility. An uncertainty analysis of the model predictions assessed the spatial distribution of prediction uncertainty and the contribution of different error sources to that uncertainty.For the most part, this analysis showed that mapping and modeling process errors contributed more than 95% of the total uncertainty of predicted disturbance, while satellite imagery error contributed less than 5% of the uncertainty. When the total uncertainty was larger than a threshold, modeling error contributed 60% to 90% of the prediction uncertainty. Otherwise, mapping error contributed about 10% to 50% of the total uncertainty. These uncertainty sources were further partitioned spatially based on other sources of uncertainties associated with vehicle moment, landscape characterization, satellite imagery, etc.     

Fine-scale observations of the predatory behaviour of the carnivorous copepod <Emphasis Type="Italic">Paraeuchaeta norvegica</Emphasis> and the escape responses of their ichthyoplankton prey,Atlantic cod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gadus morhua</Emphasis>)

Paraeuchaeta norvegica (8.5 mm total length) and yolk-sac stage Atlantic cod larvae (4 mm total length) (Gadus morhua) larvae were observed in aquaria (3 l of water) using silhouette video photography. This allowed direct observations (and quantitative measurement) of predator–prey interactions between these two species in 3-dimensions. Tail beats, used by cod larvae to propel themselves through the viscous fluid environment, also generate signals detectable by mechanoreceptive copepod predators. When the prey is close enough for detection and successful capture (approximately half a body-length), the copepod launches an extremely rapid high Reynolds number attack, grabbing the larva around its midsection. While capture itself takes place in milliseconds, minutes are required to subdue and completely ingest a cod larva. The behavioural observations are used to estimate the hydrodynamic signal strength of the cod larva’s tail beats and the copepod’s perceptive field for larval fish prey. Cod larvae are more sensitive to fluid velocity than P. norvegica and also appear capable of distinguishing between the signal generated by a swimming and an attacking copepod. However, the copepod can lunge at much faster velocities than a yolk-sac cod larva can escape, leading to the larva’s capture. These observations can serve as input to the predator–prey component of ecosystem models intended to assess the impact of P. norvegica on cod larvae.     

The origins of aneuploidy research consortium

The presence of high levels of aneuploidy in oocytes and early embryos and their fate is of considerable scientific and clinical importance. The Origins of Aneuploidy Research Consortium (OARC) was established to promote interdisciplinary communication and collaborative research into this topic. Under the umbrella of OARC, a series of papers has now been published in this Special Issue of Prenatal Diagnosis. Recent studies have transformed the view that aneuploidy is usually attributable to meiotic non-disjunction. The molecular basis for the association between meiotic error and maternal age is becoming understood. The clinical significance of mitotic instability in the earliest cells divisions of the embryo is also becoming clearer. An error in the segregation of one or more whole chromosomes from a parent does not invariably result in a non-viable pregnancy or an abnormal outcome. Epidemiologic data allows an assessment of in utero viability, the effect of maternal age, and secondary factors that may affect aneuploidy prevalence. We advocate careful use of nomenclature and revision of educational materials to more accurately explain the complex and often nuanced mechanisms. OARC plans to hold additional workshops, promote additional publications and offer educational resources.     

Determining gestational age using genome methylation profile: A novel approach for fetal medicine

Gestational age determination by traditional tools (last menstrual period, ultrasonography measurements and Ballard Maturational Assessment in newborns) has major limitations and therefore there is a need to find different approaches. In this study, we looked for a molecular marker that can be used to determine the accurate gestational age of the newborn. To this end, we performed reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) on 41 cord blood and matching placenta samples from women between 25 and 40 weeks of gestation and generated an epigenetic clock based on the methylation level at different loci in the genome. We identified a set of 332 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) that undergo demethylation in late gestational age in cord blood cells and can predict the gestational age (r = −.7, P = 2E-05). Once the set of 411 DMRs that undergo de novo methylation in late gestational age was used in combination with the first set, it generated a more accurate clock (R = .77, P = 1.87E-05). We have compared gestational age determined by Ballard score assessment with our epigenetic clock and found high concordance. Taken together, this study demonstrates that DNA methylation can accurately predict gestational age and thus may serve as a good clinical predictor.