Simulation of Halocarbon Production and Emissions and Effects on Ozone Depletion

/ This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocarbon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications and historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon impacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, regulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relating to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactions, notably: changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromine for ozone depletion, modifications to the elimination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance. Individually, each issue does not unequivocally represent a significant likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. In combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen loading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.KEY WORDS: Halocarbons; Ozone depletion; Montreal Protocol; Integrated assessment     

The hydrolysis of Zectran in buffered and natural waters.

The analyses and rates of hydrolysis of Zectran, 4-dimethylamino-3,5-xylyl methylcarbamate are reported in aqueous media. These rates were measured in phosphate buffered, distilled water and in natural waters where tempteratures of 10 degrees, 20 degrees, and 28 degrees C. and pH values of 5.94, 7.00, and 8.42 were used. Intial concentrations of Zectran exceeded 60 mg/l (0.27 mMol 1(-1), whereas in the natural waters initial concentrations were 30 mg/l (0.135 mMol 1(-1). This study shows that the persistance of Zechtran in natural waters is, in large part, dependent upon the pH value and the temperature.     

Understanding stewardship behaviour: factors facilitating and constraining private water well stewardship

Regulatory frameworks to ensure municipal drinking water safety exist in most North American jurisdictions. However, similar protection is rarely provided to people reliant on water provided from private wells. In Canada, approximately 4 million people depend on privately owned, domestic wells for their drinking water. Numerous studies have shown that people who rely on private wells for their water supplies are at risk from nitrate and bacterial contamination. Given the fact that regulations relating to private wells tend to be weak or poorly enforced, actions taken by well owners to protect their own drinking water safety are extremely important. Drawing on one of the largest and most comprehensive surveys of private well owners ever conducted in Canada or elsewhere, this paper explores factors that influence well owner stewardship behaviour. Key behaviours examined included annual testing of well water and inspection of wells, measures to protect water quality, and proper decommissioning of unused wells. A geographically-stratified survey, sent to 4950 well owners in Ontario, Canada, resulted in an effective response rate of 34% (n = 1567). Logistic regression analyses revealed that motivations for well stewardship behaviours included reassurance, the perception of problems, and knowledge of the environment. Knowing how to perform stewardship behaviours was an important antecedent to action. Barriers to stewardship included complacency, inconvenience, ignorance, cost, and privacy concerns. To promote stewardship, local initiatives, better educational materials, and enforcement through real estate laws are all required. Ultimately, drinking water safety for people reliant on private wells is shown to be a responsibility shared by governments and private well owners.     

Implementing REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation): evidence on governance,evaluation and impacts from the REDD-ALERT project

The REDD-ALERT (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation from Alternative Land Uses in the Rainforests of the Tropics) project started in 2009 and finished in 2012, and had the aim of evaluating mechanisms that translate international-level agreements into instruments that would help change the behaviour of land users while minimising adverse repercussions on their livelihoods. Findings showed that some developing tropical countries have recently been through a forest transition, thus shifting from declining to expanding forests at a national scale. However, in most of these (e.g. Vietnam), a significant part of the recent increase in national forest cover is associated with an increase in importation of food and timber products from abroad, representing leakage of carbon stocks across international borders. Avoiding deforestation and restoring forests will require a mixture of regulatory approaches, emerging market-based instruments, suasive options, and hybrid management measures. Policy analysis and modelling work showed the high degree of complexity at local levels and highlighted the need to take this heterogeneity into account—it is unlikely that there will be a one size fits all approach to make Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) work. Significant progress was made in the quantification of carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes following land-use change in the tropics, contributing to narrower confidence intervals on peat-based emissions and their reporting standards. There are indications that there is only a short and relatively small window of opportunity of making REDD+ work—these included the fact that forest-related emissions as a fraction of total global GHG emissions have been decreasing over time due to the increase in fossil fuel emissions, and that the cost efficiency of REDD+ may be much less than originally thought due to the need to factor in safeguard costs, transaction costs and monitoring costs. Nevertheless, REDD+ has raised global awareness of the world’s forests and the factors affecting them, and future developments should contribute to the emergence of new landscape-based approaches to protecting a wider range of ecosystem services.     

Modeling the Fate and Transport of Plunging Inflows to Onondaga Lake

The transport and fate of two plunging tributaries, Onondaga and Ninemile Creeks, in Onondaga Lake, New York, are quantified based on application of hydrodynamic/transport models. Short‐term transport is simulated with a three‐dimensional Estuary Lake and Coastal Ocean Model (ELCOM), while the longer term fate is represented by a previously validated one‐dimensional model (UFILS4). The validation of ELCOM for the vertical distribution of tributary inflow into the lake's water column is demonstrated for four dye tracer experiments. The models are applied for three years to represent the dynamics of transport and fate for the two tributaries, with ELCOM predictions serving as input for UFILS4. The models together quantify the distribution of these inflows between the upper mixed layer (UML) and stratified depths, and the subsequent transport from stratified depths to the UML by vertical mixing. Substantial short‐term variations are predicted for both tributaries in response to variability in hydrology and weather. Increased inflow to the UML is predicted for high runoff periods. The fraction of Ninemile Creek's inflow directly entering the UML is predicted to be 50% greater than for Onondaga Creek due to Ninemile's lower negative buoyancy. The plunging phenomenon has important water quality implications, by reducing the effective loading to the UML, particularly for constituents with large rates of loss/transformation relative to the rate of vertical transport from stratified depths.     

Wilderness forms and their implications for global environmental policy and conservation

With the intention of securing industry-free land and seascapes, protecting wilderness entered international policy as a formal target for the first time in the zero draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Given this increased prominence in international policy, it is timely to consider the extent to which the construct of wilderness supports global conservation objectives. We evaluated the construct by overlaying recently updated cumulative human pressure maps that offer a global-scale delineation of industry-free land as wilderness with maps of carbon stock, species richness, and ground travel time from urban centers. Wilderness areas took variable forms in relation to carbon stock, species richness, and proximity to urban centers, where 10% of wilderness areas represented high carbon and species richness, 20% low carbon and species richness, and 3% high levels of remoteness (>48 h), carbon, and species richness. Approximately 35% of all remaining wilderness in 2013 was accessible in <24 h of travel time from urban centers. Although the construct of wilderness can be used to secure benefits in specific contexts, its application in conservation must account for contextual and social implications. The diverse characterization of wilderness under a global environmental conservation lens shows that a nuanced framing and application of the construct is needed to improve understanding, communication, and retention of its variable forms as industry-free places.