Leadership: a New Frontier in Conservation Science

Abstract:  Leadership is a critical tool for expanding the influence of conservation science, but recent advances in leadership concepts and practice remain underutilized by conservation scientists. Furthermore, an explicit conceptual foundation and definition of leadership in conservation science are not available in the literature. Here we drew on our diverse leadership experiences, our reading of leadership literature, and discussions with selected conservation science leaders to define conservation-science leadership, summarize an exploratory set of leadership principles that are applicable to conservation science, and recommend actions to expand leadership capacity among conservation scientists and practitioners. We define 2 types of conservation-science leadership: shaping conservation science through path-breaking research, and advancing the integration of conservation science into policy, management, and society at large. We focused on the second, integrative type of leadership because we believe it presents the greatest opportunity for improving conservation effectiveness. We identified 8 leadership principles derived mainly from the "adaptive leadership" literature: recognize the social dimension of the problem; cycle frequently through action and reflection; get and maintain attention; combine strengths of multiple leaders; extend your reach through networks of relationships; strategically time your effort; nurture productive conflict; and cultivate diversity. Conservation scientists and practitioners should strive to develop themselves as leaders, and the Society for Conservation Biology, conservation organizations, and academia should support this effort through professional development, mentoring, teaching, and research.     

Inbreeding Depression Accumulation across Life‐History Stages of the Endangered Takahe

Abstract: Studies evaluating the impact of inbreeding depression on population viability of threatened species tend to focus on the effects of inbreeding at a single life‐history stage (e.g., juvenile survival). We examined the effects of inbreeding across the full life‐history continuum, from survival up to adulthood, to subsequent reproductive success, and to the recruitment of second‐generation offspring, in wild Takahe ( Porphyrio hochstetteri ) by analyzing pedigree and fitness data collected over 21 breeding seasons. Although the effect size of inbreeding at individual life‐history stages was small, inbreeding depression accumulated across multiple life‐history stages and ultimately reduced long‐term fitness (i.e., successful recruitment of second‐generation offspring). The estimated total lethal equivalents (2B) summed across all life‐history stages were substantial (16.05, 95% CI 0.08–90.8) and equivalent to an 88% reduction in recruitment of second‐generation offspring for closely related pairs (e.g., sib–sib pairings) relative to unrelated pairs (according to the pedigree). A history of small population size in the Takahe could have contributed to partial purging of the genetic load and the low level of inbreeding depression detected at each single life‐history stage. Nevertheless, our results indicate that such “purged” populations can still exhibit substantial inbreeding depression, especially when small but negative fitness effects accumulate across the species’ life history. Because inbreeding depression can ultimately affect population viability of small, isolated populations, our results illustrate the importance of measuring the effects of inbreeding across the full life‐history continuum.     

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Abstract:  Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.     

Reconstructibility of Density Dependence and the Conservative Assessment of Extinction Risks

Abstract: The probability of extinction is sensitive to the presence and character of density dependence controlling the dynamics of a population. This means that our capacity to estimate a population's risks of extinction under varying environmental conditions or competing management regimes is linked to our ability to reconstruct from data the density-dependence relationships governing the natural dynamics, especially when data do not reveal a trend of population growth or decline. In an example using Gadus morhua , we show that even 10- or 20-year data sets are too short to make precise estimates of these risks. We also observe, however, that under moderate or weak density dependence, the computed risks are lower than when density dependence is not included in the model. We propose, therefore, that when available data sets are insufficient for reconstructing reliable measurements of density dependence, conservative estimates of extinction probabilities can be made from models that simply omit density dependence.     

稀有鮈鲫物种敏感性及其在生态毒理学与水质基准中的应用

物种敏感性分析是水质基准及生态毒理学研究的关键环节,稀有鮈鲫（Gobiocypris rarus）作为我国鲤科鱼类的代表性受试鱼种,其对环境污染物的敏感性受到了国内外广泛关注.通过搜集稀有鮈鲫急性毒性数据,使用物种敏感度分布法比较分析稀有鮈鲫对15种典型环境污染物的敏感性,主要包括重金属（Zn2+、Cu2+、Cr6+、Hg2+）、VOCs（三氯乙烯、四氯乙烯、甲苯、邻苯二甲酸二丁酯）、苯胺类有机物（对氯苯胺、3,4-二氯苯胺）、含氯消毒剂（三氯异氰尿酸）和农药类有机物（毒死蜱、丁草胺、乙草胺、三唑酮）,并对稀有鮈鲫在水质基准和生态毒理学研究中作为本土受试生物的适用性进行了讨论.结果表明:稀有鮈鲫对各类环境污染物的敏感性普遍较高（平均累积概率为46%）,尤其对重金属和农药类有机物反应灵敏,其中对农药类有机物最为敏感（平均累积概率为26%）,表明稀有鮈鲫可作为潜在的水质基准研究的受试生物和水质监测指示生物.在鱼类敏感性排序中,鲤科鱼类对各类环境污染物较为敏感,其中小型鲤科鱼类——稀有鮈鲫在鱼类敏感性排序中位置稳定,对大多数污染物的敏感性超过斑马鱼、黑头呆鱼、日本青鳉等国际标准试验鱼种,并且具有本土性、易人工繁育、生物背景清晰等优点,表明稀有鮈鲫是现阶段我国水质基准及生态毒理学研究的潜在本土受试生物.      

Effects of Tourists on Behavior and Demography of Olympic Marmots

Abstract:  If changes in animal behavior resulting from direct human disturbance negatively affect the persistence of a given species or population, then these behavioral changes must necessarily lead to reduced demographic performance. We tested for the effects of human disturbance on Olympic marmots ( Marmota olympus ), a large ground-dwelling squirrel that has disappeared from several areas where recreation levels are high. We assessed the degree to which antipredator and foraging behavior and demographic rates (survival and reproduction) differed between sites with high recreation levels (high use) and those with little or no recreation (low use). Compared with the marmots at low-use sites, marmots at high-use sites displayed significantly reduced responses to human approach, which could be construed as successful accommodation of disturbance or as a decrease in predator awareness. The marmots at high-use sites also looked up more often while foraging, which suggests an increased wariness. Marmots at both types of sites had comparable reproductive and survival rates and were in similar body condition. Until now, the supposition that marmots can adjust their behavior to avoid negative demographic consequences when confronted with heavy tourism has been based on potentially ambiguous behavioral data. Our results support this hypothesis in the case of Olympic marmots and demonstrate the importance of considering demographic data when evaluating the impacts of recreation on animal populations.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.