DETECTING UNKNOWN INTERVENTIONS WITH APPLICATION TO FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL DATA1

To accommodate possible parameter changes in time series at times which are not specified in advance, we propose an adaptive procedure for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The mechanism for activating the adaptive procedure is a successively updated change-detection statistic. The statistic has small expected value when no change is present and has large value when change takes place - the larger the change, the larger the statistic. The statistic defines discounting factors which determine how much of the past will be used both for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The change-detection statistic is designed to effect major changes to parameter estimates and to forecasts in a discrete fashion only, as opposed to certain other adaptive procedures that react continuously to perceived fluctuations in data, and so indicate change even when parameters remain fixed. The procedure is illustrated using exponential smoothing and Holt's linear exponential smoothing and is applied to a hydrological series.     

INSTITUTIONAL INTERACTION IN METROPOLITAN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

ABSTRACT Methods of institutional coordination derived from the applied behavioral sciences have been useful in determining the policy planning, and implementation responsibilities that must be shared between local governments, watershed districts, and a regional planning body in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. The confines of the traditional behavioral science models of organizations and institutional change processes, and the realities of administrative systems imbedded in political processes at both the local and state levels, have created conflicts between regional planners, watershed district staff and consultants, and municipal administrators. A conceptual framework based on work by Selznick on institutions was applied to two watershed districts, and the results evaluated for other research purposes as well as policy development for the 1973 Minnesota legislative session.     

Humanitarianism,Pluralism and Ombudsmen: Do the Pieces Fit?

A variety of codes and standards for humanitarian assistance have been put forth in recent years. Many NGOs have agreed to abide by these codes. There is uncertainty, however, about if and how these codes are actually being put into practice. Have we moved from words to action? One response to this concern has been a proposal to establish a humanitarian ombudsman. This paper analyses two choices facing an eventual ombudsman: whether to attempt to take punitive actions to enforce the codes and standards, or whether instead to facilitate agencies' own internal efforts to improve accountability to their beneficiaries. It proposes a pluralistic approach, wherein a variety of methods, structures and local perceptions are accepted as potentially appropriate, but where a clear moral stance is still maintained. Some suggestions are outlined for how flexible forms of policy analysis may be used to combine an acceptance of the validity of a vast range of humanitarian actions while still retaining a strong stance against practices that may harm beneficiaries or feed the causes of conflict. Realism about each agency's room for manoeuvre is essential, especially local institutions. A modest but principled stance will involve helping actors to consider the impact of their work on conflict and to find ways to improve the quality of their interventions as perceived by beneficiaries.     

Possibility of converting indigenous Salvadora persica L. seed oil into biodiesel in Pakistan

In this research study, biodiesel has been successfully produced from vegetable seed oil of an indigenous plant Salvadora persica L. that meets the international biodiesel standard (ASTM D6751). The biodiesel yield was 1.57 g/5 g (31.4% by weight) and the in-situ transesterification ester content conversion was 97.7%. The produced biodiesel density was 0.894 g/mL, its kinematic viscosity 5.51 mm²/s, HHV 35.26 MJ/kg, flash point 210°C, cetane no. 61, and sulfur content 0.0844%. Thermal analysis of the biodiesel showed that 97% weight loss was achieved at 595°C with total oxidation of the biodiesel. The production energy efficiency was 0.46% with a lab scale setup, assuming the volume fraction ratio (volume of the sample/total volume of the equipment used). The results revealed that single-step in-situ transesterification method is suitable for the production of biodiesel from S. persica seed oil.     

Least auklet ornaments: do they function as quality indicators?

Summary In the monogamous least auklet (Aethia pusilla, Alcidae) both males and females have three highly variable ornamental traits (facial plumes, a colourful bill and a knob-like bill ornament) and both sexes perform courtship displays. To assess whether mating preferences could be related to the expression of these ornaments, we performed model presentation experiments in which we varied the bill colour and the size of both the bill ornament and the facial plumes. Auklets reacted to models that had brighter red bills and accentuated facial plumes with more frequent sexual displays than to models with average bills and plumes. We conclude that these two ornamental traits are likely to be favoured by sexual selection through mating preferences. In general, however, ornaments were weak predictors of individual quality. Multiple regression indicated that all ornaments taken together explained a small (R ² = 0.07) but significant proportion of the variability in adult body condition but only in a poor year for reproduction when the birds were in relatively poor body condition and a small proportion of the population bred successfully. The degree of ornamentation was also not related to timing of breeding, chick feeding rate or reproductive success and there was no relationship between adult survival and ornaments. We conclude, therefore, that least auklet ornaments are, at best, weak indicators of quality that may be the result of sexual selection operating only in years when breeding conditions are poor. Offprint requests to: R. Montgomerie     

The effects of feeding by the black bean aphidAphis fabae Scop. (Homoptera: Aphididae) on copper and cadmium accumulation in broad bean (Vicia faba L.)

Broad beans (Vicia faba L.), cultured hydroponically were supplied with 100 g mL^–1 copper or 50 g mL^–1 cadmium in nutrient solution. Samples of plant material from both nutrient regimes were analysed before and after infestation by the black bean aphid (Aphis fabae Scop.). Heavy aphid infestation resulted in a significant reduction in copper content of shoots in comparison with uninfested plants. A similar, but less well- defined, situation occurred in the case of cadmium.Further investigations examined the effects of different levels of aphid infestation on the above phenomena. In all cases the presence of feeding aphids reduced elemental accumulation in plant shoots. Long term infestation with population densities as low as three adult aphids showed a reduction in shoot copper and cadmium content.     

Test of a behavior-based individual-based model: response of shorebird mortality to habitat loss.

In behavior-based individual-based models (IBMs), demographic functions are emergent properties of the model and are not built into the model structure itself, as is the case with the more widely used demography-based IBMs. Our behavior-based IBM represents the physiology and behavioral decision making of individual animals and, from that, predicts how many survive the winter nonbreeding season, an important component of fitness. This paper provides the first test of such a model by predicting the change in winter mortality of a charadriid shorebird following removal of intertidal feeding habitat, the main effect of which was to increase bird density. After adjusting one calibration parameter to the level required to replicate the observed mortality rate before habitat loss, the model predicted that mortality would increase by 3.65%, which compares well with the observed increase of 3.17%. The implication that mortality was density-dependent was confirmed by predicting mortality over a range of bird densities. Further simulations showed that the density dependence was due to an increase in both interference and depletion competition as bird density increased. Other simulations suggested that an additional area of mudflat, equivalent to only 10% of the area that had been lost, would be needed by way of mitigation to return mortality to its original level. Being situated at a high shore level with the flow of water in and out impeded by inlet pipes, the mitigating mudflat would be accessible to birds when all mudflats in the estuary were covered at high tide, thus providing the birds with extra feeding time and not just a small replacement mudflat. Apart from providing the first, and confidence-raising, test of a behavior-based IBM, the results suggest (1) that the chosen calibration procedure was effective; (2) that where no new fieldwork is required, and despite being parameter rich, a behavior-based IBM can be parameterized quickly (few weeks), and thus cheaply, because so many of the parameter values can be obtained from the literature and are embedded in the model; and (3) that behavior-based IBMs can be used to explore system behavior (e.g., the role of depletion competition and interference competition in density-dependent mortality).     

塔基图穆保护区——库克群岛的社区所属生态旅游明星

塔基图穆保护区 1996年创建于库克群岛的拉罗汤加岛 , 其目标是为了当前和未来生产者的利 益而对生物多样性实施保护 . 只有当地人民对其土地和资源拥有所有权 . 生态旅游将成为该 保护区的主要经济活动 . 在土地所有者同意和支持下 , 一个有指导的 " 大自然漫步 " 已经组 织起来 .     

Role of heavy polar organic compounds for water repellency of sandy soils

Separation and chemical characterisation of specific compounds responsible for soil water repellency has not previously been achieved. Here we describe the extraction, separation and analysis by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry of organic compounds found in wettable and water repellent sandy soils from the Netherlands and United Kingdom. Fatty acids (C₁₆–C₂₄), amides (C₁₄–C₂₄), alkanes (C₂₅–C₃₃), aldehydes/ketones (C₂₃–C₃₁) and complex ring-containing structures were detected in all samples. We found a greater abundance of high molecular mass polar compounds in the water repellent samples.