Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Chloroform

This risk assessment on chloroform was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 23 studies for fish, 17 studies for invertebrates and 10 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a typical PNEC value of 72 µg/l. Due to limitations of the studies evaluated, a worst PNEC of 1 µg/l could also be used. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.2 µg chloroform per litre of water and a worst case PEC of 5 to 11.5 µg chloroform per litre of water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 6 to 360 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentrations. A worst case ratio, however, points to a potential risk for sensitive species. Refinement of the assessment is necessary by looking for more data. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Tetrachloroethylene

This risk assessment on tetrachloroethylene (PER) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 18 studies for fish, 13 studies for invertebrates and 8 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 51 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuary waters and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.2 µg PER/l water and a worst case PEC of 2.5 µg PER/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 20 to 250 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - 1,1,2-Trichloroethane

This risk assessment on 1,1,2-trichloroethane (T112) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 22 studies for fish, 45 studies for invertebrates and 9 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 300 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.01 µg T112/l water and a worst case PEC of 5 µg T112/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 60 to 30,000 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Phenotypic variation in shell form in the intertidal acorn barnacle Chthamalus montagui: distribution,response to predators and life history trade-offs

The acorn barnacle Chthamalus montagui can present strong variation in shell morphology, ranging from flat conic to a highly bent form, caused by a substantial overgrowth of the rostrum plate. Shell shape distribution was investigated between January and May 2004 from geographical to microhabitat spatial scales along the western coast of Britain. Populations studied in the north (Scotland and Isle of Man) showed a higher degree of shell variation compared to those in the south (Wales and south-west England). In the north, C. montagui living at lower tidal levels and in proximity to the predatory dogwhelk, Nucella lapillus, were more bent in profile. Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine behavioural responses, and vulnerability of bent and conic barnacles to predation by N. lapillus. Dogwhelks did not attack one morphotype more than the other, but only 15 % of attacks on bent forms were successful compared to 75 % in conic forms. Dogwhelk effluent reduced the time spent feeding by C. montagui (11 %), but there was no significant difference between conic and bent forms. Examination of barnacle morphology indicated a trade-off in investment in shell structure and feeding appendages associated with being bent, but none with egg or somatic tissue mass. These results are consistent with C. montagui showing an induced defence comparable to that found in its congeners Chthamalus anisopoma and Chthamalus fissus on the Pacific coast of North America, but further work to demonstrate inducibility is required.     

The importance of defining focal assemblages when evaluating amphibian and reptile responses to land use

Habitat loss and degradation are primary threats to amphibians and reptiles, but the relative effects of common land uses on assemblages and the mechanisms that underlie faunal responses are poorly studied. We reviewed the effects of four prevalent types of habitat alteration (urbanization, agriculture, livestock grazing, and silviculture) on amphibian and reptile species richness and abundance by summarizing reported responses in the literature and by estimating effect sizes across studies for species richness in each land‐use type. We then used a multinomial model to classify species as natural habitat specialists, generalists, and disturbed habitat specialists and examined variation in effect sizes for each land‐use type according to habitat specialization categories. There were mixed conclusions from individual studies, some reporting negative, neutral, or positive effects of land use on species richness and total abundance. A large proportion of studies reported species‐specific effects of individual species abundance. However, in our analysis of effect sizes, we found a general trend of negative effects of land use on species richness. We also demonstrate that habitat associations of common species and species turnover can explain variation in the effect of land use on herpetofauna. Our review highlights the pervasive negative effects of common land uses on amphibians and reptiles, the importance of identifying groups vulnerable to land‐use change (e.g., forest‐associated species) in conservation studies, and the potential influence of disturbance‐associated species on whole assemblage analyses.     

USE AND MISUSE OF COMPLEX MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The power of computers has increased in recent decades, and one might expect improved management to result because decisions can be made with understanding available only via models. However, there is potential for quite the opposite: poor decisions due to unrealistic model output generated by users without access to appropriate training in the use of models. We discuss and, by reference to water demand models (IWR-MAIN, MWD-MAIN), illustrate three areas in which unintended errors of judgment by untrained personnel may cause difficulty:

• * Attributes of management models; if output from any type of model has no measure of confidence, then results may be over- or undervalued
• * Input data; with complex models, problems here typically will be difficult to detect.
• * Calibration and history-matching (verification); if these steps or data are combined, then users should be less trustful of model output than otherwise.

Because all models have weaknesses and because there always is uncertainty about output from any model, we end with suggestions for coping with complex models. Monitoring programs play a central role in such efforts because they can identify discrepancies between model predictions and actual events and because they can ensure time is available to develop solutions for problems unanticipated in the modeling effort.     

Population frequencies of alternative male phenotypes in tree lizards: geographic variation and common-garden rearing studies

Tree lizards (Urosaurus ornatus) vary in throat fan (dewlap) color. Earlier, we described five dewlap types (Orange, Orange-Blue, Yellow, Yellow-Blue, and Blue), and reported that only males had blue in the dewlap and that presence or absence of a discrete blue patch was correlated with male alternative reproductive phenotypes in a central Arizona population. Here, with a modified scheme characterizing two dewlap elements, background color (orange, yellow, blue) and blue patch occurrence, we assessed: (1) sexual, annual, and geographic variation in the frequencies of dewlap elements; (2) simple habitat correlates; and (3) the effects of laboratory rearing regime on dewlap type. Within a population, frequencies of males and females expressing orange or yellow backgrounds did not differ, suggesting that control of background is similar in the sexes. Within several populations, frequencies of the dewlap elements did not differ across years (and probably generations), indicating that phenotype frequencies are relatively stable. Among five populations frequencies of background colors varied, as did frequencies of male types (blue patch present or absent). Dewlap frequencies did not correlate with habitat (boulders or mesquite trees), although few populations were sampled. In male and female offspring reared from eggs to sexual maturity in a common-garden laboratory study, background color frequencies in both sexes and blue patch frequencies in males differed among offspring from different populations. Offspring frequencies matched respective parental population frequencies. Results suggest that among-population variation in frequencies of the two dewlap elements are mediated by differences in genetics, in maternal effects, or both. Thus, differences in male behavior functionally linked to the blue patch also may be controlled by genetic or maternal effects. Received: 17 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 30 August 1997     

Spoil disposal

Summary The colliery spoil problem in existing mining areas requires the same attention as that in the new coalfields. The Yorkshire coalfield has particular problems since so much land near collieries has already been tipped on. Suggested short-term and long-term solutions are outlined. Some will be successful, others may not.The Commission on Energy and the Environment has made many recommendations to improve the existing situation in the coalfields. How many of these will the Government support? The National Coal Board promised a high standard of environmental treatment at the Belvoir public inquiry. Will these high standards be reflected in developments on the existing coalfields?Effective day-to-day management can have beneficial results out of all proportion to expenditure. All collieries should match up to the high standards achieved at the better ones. Is there any reason why lagoons should be features of colliery spoil disposal for the next decade? Can colliery spoil be used more extensively as an alternative material in construction? The National Coal Board and the local authorities need a strategic plan for coal development including spoil disposal and in detail need an agreed plan for short-term spoil disposal at each colliery.Commitment and research is needed to look into methods of backstowage — which tackles the problem at source. Can other European experience help in this matter? Fluidised-bed technology may lead to a reduction in spoil. Maximum use will have to be made of local tipping opportunities, whether quarry, voids, opencast coal sites, new land forms or upgrading agricultural land — but they won't happen on their own. Effort and determination will be needed. Long-distance movement of spoil appears expensive. It cannot be financed under the NCB's present system of accounting and certainly not financed by local authorities. Costs may need to be met nationally. The financing of major spoil solutions may well be the major problem in making and progress in any direction — but a national resource such as coal should be developed through a national approach to overall costs.     

Statistical hypothesis testing formulations for U.S. environmental regulatory standards for ozone

Environmental regulatory standards are intended to protect human health and environmental welfare. Current standards are based on scientific and policy considerations but appear to lack rigorous statistical foundations and may have unintended regulatory consequences. We examine current and proposed U.S. environmental regulatory standards for ozone from the standpoint of their formulation and performance within a statistical hypothesis testing framework. We illustrate that the standards can be regarded as representing constraints on a percentile of the ozone distribution, where the percentile involved depends on the defined length of ozone season and the constraint is stricter in regions with greater variability. A hypothesis testing framework allows consideration of error rates (probability of false declaration of violation and compliance) and we show that the existing statistics on which the standards are based can be improved upon in terms of bias and variance. Our analyses also raise issues relating to network design and the possibilities of defining a regionally based standard that acknowledges and accounts for spatial and temporal variability in the ozone distribution.     

Impact of heating and air conditioning system operation and leakage on ventilation and intercompartment transport: studies in unoccupied and occupied Tennessee Valley homes

Forced-air heating and air conditioning (HAC) systems caused an average and maximum increase in air infiltration rates of 1.8- and 4.3-fold, respectively, during brief whole-house studies of tracer gas decay in 39 occupied houses. An average increase in air infiltration rate of 0.33 +/- 0.37 h-1 corresponded to an incremental air leak of 240 m3/h, based on approximate house volume. More detailed tracer gas decay studies were performed in basement, kitchen and bedroom locations of six homes with low air infiltration rates (i.e., less than 0.25 h-1). The HAC mixed the indoor air efficiently between measurement sites. HAC operation also caused 1.1- to 3.6-fold increases in air infiltration rates, corresponding to absolute increases of 0.02 to 0.1 h-1. In an unoccupied research house, three-fold increases in average air infiltration rate with HAC operation (i.e., from 0.13 to 0.36 h-1) were reduced to two-fold (i.e., from 0.10 to 0.18 h-1) by sealing the external HAC unit and crawlspace ductwork system. This sealing also resulted in a 30 percent reduction in crawlspace-to-indoor transport rates with the HAC turned on. Blower door tests indicated a less than 20 percent reduction in house leakage area.