Mathematical Methods for Spatially Cohesive Reserve Design

The problem of designing spatially cohesive nature reserve systems that meet biodiversity objectives is formulated as a nonlinear integer programming problem. The multiobjective function minimises a combination of boundary length, area and failed representation of the biological attributes we are trying to conserve. The task is to reserve a subset of sites that best meet this objective. We use data on the distribution of habitats in the Northern Territory, Australia, to show how simulated annealing and a greedy heuristic algorithm can be used to generate good solutions to such large reserve design problems, and to compare the effectiveness of these methods.     

Impacts of ocean CO2 disposal on marine life: I. A toxicological assessment integrating constant‐concentration laboratory assay data with variable‐concentration field exposure

Feasibility studies suggest that the concept of capturing CO₂ from fossil fuel power plants and discharging it to the deep ocean could help reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, the local reduction in seawater pH near the point of injection is a potential environmental impact. Data from the literature reporting on toxicity of reduced pH to marine organisms potentially affected by such a plume were combined into a model expressing mortality as a function of pH and exposure time. Since organisms exposed to real plumes would experience a time‐varying pH, methods to account for a variable exposure were reviewed and a new method developed based on the concept of isomortality. In part II of this paper, the method is combined with a random‐walk model describing the transport of passive organisms through a low pH plume leading to a Monte‐Carlo‐like risk assessment which is applied to several candidate CO₂ injection scenarios.     

Airborne particulate-associated polyaromatic hydrocarbons,n-alkanes,elemental and organic carbon in three European cities

Total suspended particulate (TSP) samples were collected weekly over a period of one year at four European sites during 1995/6. Two sites were in London-a Central London site (CL, St Paul's Cathedral) and a suburban North London site (NL, Bounds Green); the other two sites were in Porto, Portugal and Vienna, Austria. TSP was collected using a low volume sampler. Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations were measured using a thermal-optical carbon analyser. Parallel samplers collected TSP for subsequent GC-MS analysis of thirty-nine combustion-associated organic compounds; 16 polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 23 n-alkanes. OC and EC correlate well at all sites (r2 = 0.39-0.65), although the London inter-site correlations were low, suggesting that local sources of OC and EC have a significant influence on local concentrations. Concentrations do not vary widely across the four urban sites, despite the significant differences in urban characteristics. Seasonal patterns of OC:EC ratios were similar at the London and Vienna sites, with highest ratios in autumn and winter, and annual mean OC:EC ratios were identical at these sites. The Carbon Preference Index (CPI) indicated vehicle emissions to have a stronger influence over particulate concentrations at the Vienna and central London sites; there was a stronger biogenic signature in north London and Porto. In addition, two PAH compounds (pyrene and fluoranthene) previously associated with diesel exhaust, were correlated with OC and EC concentrations at the London and Vienna sites.     

A global assessment of adaptation investment from the perspectives of equity and efficiency

Equity and efficiency should be considered when allocating resources for climate change adaptation. More than a decade after the Least Developed Countries Fund approved adaptation funds for 18 countries in 2003, it is possible to take the stock of investment data and to test empirically whether equity and efficiency have been factored into adaptation investment decision-making. To evaluate equity, one must determine if resources were distributed to areas of greatest need. Vulnerability assessments provide information on the global distribution of the need for adaptation. To evaluate efficiency, one must compare cost and benefit of an investment. Although it is difficult to assess ex-ante the cost and benefit of investment strategies, it is possible to measure efficient use of expenditures with readiness assessment, as a metric of capacity to deploy adaptation resources. We used vulnerability and readiness measures of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Country Index as proxies of equity and efficiency. This article quantitatively interrogates—through the lens of public fund allocation—the roles of vulnerability and readiness in shaping adaptation investment decisions. Our findings suggest that countries facing increasing impacts from climate change have received more adaptation investments from international sources than countries with less vulnerability. Further, international investments also preferentially flow to countries that are more ready to deploy adaptation resources. Since the most vulnerable countries are likely to be less ready for investment, our findings support the efforts to improve the investment potential of the most vulnerable countries by investing first to enhance their readiness, in order to unlock adaptation solutions.     

Isotopic evidence for niche partitioning and the influence of anthropogenic disturbance on endemic and introduced rodents in central Madagascar

We applied a multi-isotope approach to examine aspects of niche partitioning, competition, and mobility for rodents in the Central Highlands of Madagascar. Specifically, we used carbon (δ¹³C), nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), and strontium (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) isotope ratios in bone to investigate diet and mobility for endemic tufted tail rats (Eliurus spp.), and introduced black rats (Rattus rattus) and house mice (Mus musculus) within and outside a fragment of montane humid forest in the Ambohitantely Special Reserve. There was a clear spatial segregation in trapping success for different species: Eliurus was only in the forest interior and edge, Mus only outside of the fragment in a marsh and park housing complex, and Rattus in all habitats except the housing complex. We find only moderate support for mobility of rodents among habitats. Mus may routinely move between the marsh and housing complex. However, regular movement between the forest edge and interior, or between the forest fragment and surrounding grassland is not supported. Taxa appear to target different foods: Rattus tends to feed at a higher trophic level than Eliurus, and Mus consumes some C₄ resources. To date, strontium isotopes have been underutilized in ecological research. Here, we show that they are highly complementary to carbon and nitrogen isotope data. Even in localities with relatively uniform underlying geology, it may be possible to distinguish individuals that regularly forage in different habitats.     

N-Nitrosamine formation from chloramination of two common ionic liquids

Ionic liquids(ILs) are a class of solvents increasingly used as "green chemicals." Widespread applications of ILs have led to concerns about their accidental entry to the environment.ILs have been assessed for some environmental impacts;however,little has been done to characterize their potential impacts on drinking water if ILs accidentally enter surface water.IL cations are often aromatic or alkyl quaternary amines that resemble structures of previously confirmed N-nitrosamine(NA) precursors.Therefore,this study has evaluated two common ILs,1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide(EMIm Br) and 1-ethyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium bromide(EMPyr Br),for their NA formation potential.Each IL species was reacted with pre-formed monochloramine under various laboratory conditions.The reaction mixtures were extracted using liquid–liquid extraction and analyzed for NAs using high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry.At low concentration of IL(250 μmol/L),the yields of NAs(NMEA or NPyr) increased with increasing doses of monochloramine from both IL species.The total NA yield was as high as 2.5 ± 0.3 ng/mg from EMIm Br,and as high as 8.6 ± 0.8 ng/mg from EMPyr Br.At high concentration of IL(5 mmol/L),the NA yield reached a maximum at 2.5 mmol/L NH_2Cl,and then decreased with subsequent increases in the reactant concentrations,demonstrating ILs' solvent effects.This study re-emphasizes the importance of preventing discharge of ILs to water bodies to prevent secondary impacts on drinking water.     

COOPERATIVE MODELING: BUILDING BRIDGES BETWEEN SCIENCE AND THE PUBLIC1

As freshwater resources become more scarce and water management becomes more contentious, new planning approaches are essential to maintain ecologic, economic, and social stability. One technique involves cooperative modeling in which scientists and stakeholders work together to develop a computer simulation model to assist in planning efforts. In the Middle Rio Grande region of New Mexico, where water management is hotly debated, a stakeholder team used a system dynamics approach to create a computer simulation model to facilitate producing a regional plan. While the model itself continues to be valuable, the process for creating the model was also valuable in helping stakeholders jointly develop understanding of and approaches to addressing complex issues. In this paper, the authors document results from post‐project interviews designed to identify strengths and weaknesses of cooperative modeling; to determine if and how the model facilitated the planning process; and to solicit advice for others considering model aided planning. Modeling team members revealed that cooperative modeling did facilitate water planning. Interviewees suggested that other groups try to reach consensus on a guiding vision or philosophy for their project and recognize that cooperative modeling is time intensive. The authors also note that using cooperative modeling as a tool to build bridges between science and the public requires consistent communication about both the process and the product.     

Detecting the signal of atmospheric N deposition in recent national-scale vegetation change across Britain

Model estimates of NO_y and NH_x deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km². The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NH_x deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km² variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NO_y deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.