Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model

A saturation of climate–carbon cycle feedback was found earlier in the simulations with the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity. Here, this eventual saturation is interpreted by using a conceptual linearised coupled model. It is shown that this saturation is due to weak, logarithmic, dependence of the carbon dioxide radiative forcing on its atmospheric concentration. This eventual saturation leads to the non-monotonic behaviour of climate–carbon cycle parameter f   in time. If the time scale of the atmospheric CO₂${\text{CO}}_2$ build up is _tp$t_{\text{p}}$ then, starting from an initial equilibrium, f   approaches maximum in time ?_tp$?t_{\text{p}}$. Afterwards, climate–carbon cycle parameter decreases and eventually tends to unity. The time scale of the latter decrease is _t1=(1−5)_tp$t_1=(1-5)t_{\text{p}}$. A dependence of _tm$t_{\text{m}}$ and _t1$t_1$ on governing parameters of the conceptual model is studied. It is argued that an eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback is expected to occur also in the other integrations of sufficient length with coupled climate–carbon cycle models.     

Oil spreading in instantaneous and continuous spills on rotating earth

The effect of the Coriolis force on the oil spill spreading in the gravity-viscous regime is examined. A new shallow water model for the transport and spreading of oil slick of arbitrary shape is described in which the Coriolis force is included in the momentum equations and the oil–water friction is parameterized in a frame of the boundary layer theory including the Ekman friction. The numerical Lagrangian method based on smoothed particle dynamics is described. New similarity solutions of the model equations are obtained for unidirectional and axisymmetric spreading in gravity-viscous, gravity-turbulent and gravity-viscous-rotational regimes for instantaneous as well as continuous releases. The numerical simulation extends these results for the case of continuous release in the presence of currents. It was shown that Coriolis term in the momentum equation can be omitted if slick thickness is much less of the laminar Ekman layer thickness. However, the Ekman friction should be retained for slicks of any thickness for larger times. The Ekman friction results in the essential slowdown of the spreading as well as in the deflection of the oil spreading velocity at 45° from the direction of velocity in the non-rotation case. Numerical simulations of large-scale spills showed that after the 2?days the slick area with the Coriolis effect was approximately less than half of that without rotation. Therefore, the earth rotation can be also important in the oil weathering.     

Sensitivity and first-step uncertainty analyses for the preferential flow model MACRO

Sensitivity analyses for the preferential flow model MACRO were carried out using one-at-a-time and Monte Carlo sampling approaches. Four different scenarios were generated by simulating leaching to depth of two hypothetical pesticides in a sandy loam and a more structured clay loam soil. Sensitivity of the model was assessed using the predictions for accumulated water percolated at a 1-m depth and accumulated pesticide losses in percolation. Results for simulated percolation were similar for the two soils. Predictions of water volumes percolated were found to be only marginally affected by changes in input parameters and the most influential parameter was the water content defining the boundary between micropores and macropores in this dual-porosity model. In contrast, predictions of pesticide losses were found to be dependent on the scenarios considered and to be significantly affected by variations in input parameters. In most scenarios, predictions for pesticide losses by MACRO were most influenced by parameters related to sorption and degradation. Under specific circumstances, pesticide losses can be largely affected by changes in hydrological properties of the soil. Since parameters were varied within ranges that approximated their uncertainty, a first-step assessment of uncertainty for the predictions of pesticide losses was possible. Large uncertainties in the predictions were reported, although these are likely to have been overestimated by considering a large number of input parameters in the exercise. It appears desirable that a probabilistic framework accounting for uncertainty is integrated into the estimation of pesticide exposure for regulatory purposes.     

Systemic long-term impact of clinical pathways: UPMC experience with hysterectomy patients

Environment Systems and Decisions - Clinical pathways are defined as evidence-based, multidisciplinary care algorithms that outline essential steps in the management of patients. Pathway...     

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals.     

Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: literature review

Approximately 3000 papers concerning multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database and classified by MCDA method and environmental application using text mining in R. Stemming and stop word removal techniques were used to remove irrelevant text from the literature. Trends in MCDA methods (AHP/ANP, TOPSIS, outranking, MAUT/MAVT) associated with specific environmental applications (water, air, energy, natural resources, and waste management) or interventions/tools applications (stakeholders, strategies, sustainability, and GIS) were identified. The results show a linear growth in the share of MCDA papers in environmental science across all application areas. Furthermore, the results show that AHP/ANP and MAUT/MAVT are the most frequently mentioned MCDA methods in the literature. For environmental applications, the results showed that natural resource and waste management keywords were, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed applications within the MCDA papers. For intervention/tool applications, we found that keywords associated with ‘strategy’ and ‘GIS’ applications are, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed keywords within the MCDA papers. The authors found that MCDA method keywords were evenly distributed across the environmental and intervention/tool applications, indicating a lack of preference in the environmental field for use of specific MCDA methods. This paper demonstrates that text mining is an applicable tool to assess specific textual trends and patterns when analyzing larger bodies of MCDA literature.     

The Detection Rate of Enteric Viruses and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> in a Waste Water Treatment Plant Effluent

Waste water treatment plant (WWTP) is considered as an important source of surface water contamination by enteric pathogens. In this study, we describe the occurrence of enteric viruses (group A rotaviruses, noroviruses, astroviruses, sapoviruses, hepatitis A virus, and hepatitis E virus) and Clostridium difficile in the effluent of a wastewater treatment plant during a 1-year period. Enteric viruses were simultaneously and efficiently concentrated in a single step using methacrylate monolithic chromatographic support. Rotaviruses, noroviruses (genogroup I and II), and sapoviruses were detected in all 12 concentrated samples, whereas astroviruses were not detected in August and September and hepatitis A and E viruses were not detected at all. Clostridium difficile was detected in all samples and altogether 121 strains were isolated and grouped into 32 different ribotypes of which 014/020 and 010 were most prevalent. Pathogens detected in WWTP effluent partially reflect the epidemiological situation of enteric viruses and C. difficile in human population and open the discussion on implementation of possible techniques for virus and bacteria removal from WWTP effluent prior to release into the surface water system.