Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

Undue concentration of research and education: multi-criteria decision approach to assess jurisdiction eligibility for NSF funding

Research and education tend to concentrate in specific geographical areas, while many jurisdictions receive limited federal research funding. This has resulted in reduced opportunity for students as well as limited ability of science to influence solving problems at the jurisdiction level. The National Science Foundation’s Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) was intended to address the “undue concentration of research and education” by providing direct funding to improve research infrastructure, hire researchers, develop outreach, and to enhance local research capacity. Despite many successful outcomes attributed to EPSCoR, the aim and the execution of the program have generated controversy. Decision analytic tools can provide a systematic approach to EPSCoR prioritization that improves transparency and addresses the program’s intent. The wording of NSF’s mission and EPSCoR legislation suggest the intent of maximizing NSF’s benefit to the nation by directly supporting scientific research product across all jurisdictions and by supporting development of competitive scientific capabilities within particular jurisdictions. These components may be quantified via data-driven metrics producing indicators of ultimate benefit. Using illustrative scenarios within a multi-criteria decision model, we explore how such decision models may generate insights and how their guidance compares with current eligibility determinations.     

Resilience and lessons learned from COVID-19 emergency response

Environment Systems and Decisions -     

Ammonia and methane oxidation on TiO2 supported on glass fiber mesh under artificial solar irradiation

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In this work, we present the application of solar photocatalysis for air purification including toxic substances such as ammonia and methane normally...     

A schematic sampling protocol for contaminant monitoring in raptors

Birds of prey, owls and falcons are widely used as sentinel species in raptor biomonitoring programmes. A major current challenge is to facilitate large-scale biomonitoring by coordinating contaminant monitoring activities and by building capacity across countries. This requires sharing, dissemination and adoption of best practices addressed by the Networking Programme Research and Monitoring for and with Raptors in Europe (EURAPMON) and now being advanced by the ongoing international COST Action European Raptor Biomonitoring Facility. The present perspective introduces a schematic sampling protocol for contaminant monitoring in raptors. We provide guidance on sample collection with a view to increasing sampling capacity across countries, ensuring appropriate quality of samples and facilitating harmonization of procedures to maximize the reliability, comparability and interoperability of data. The here presented protocol can be used by professionals and volunteers as a standard guide to ensure harmonised sampling methods for contaminant monitoring in raptors.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01341-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Defining practical and robust study designs for interventions targeted at terrestrial mammalian predators

Conflicts between humans and mammalian predators are globally widespread and increasing, creating a long-lasting challenge for conservation and local livelihoods. Protection interventions, which are essential to conflict mitigation, should be based on solid evidence of effectiveness produced by robust study designs. Yet, it is unclear what study designs have been used in predator-targeted interventions and how they can be improved to provide best practices for replications. I examined how applications of five study designs (before-after, before-after-control-impact, control-impact, crossover [i.e., the same randomly assigned study units acting as treatments and controls during alternating trials], and randomized controlled trial) have changed over time and how these changes are related to authors, predator species, countries, and intervention types (aversion, husbandry, mixed interventions, invasive management, lethal control, and noninvasive management). I applied multinomial regression modeling to 434 cases (28 predator species and 45 countries) from 244 studies published from 1955 to 2020. Study design was related only to intervention type. Less reliable before-after and control-impact studies were the most common (47.7% and 38.2% of cases, respectively), and their use increased over years as did all interventions. The contribution of the most robust before-after-control-impact (7.4%), randomized controlled trial (5.3%), and crossover designs (1.4%) remained minor over time. Crossover is suitable for aversion, most husbandry techniques, and a few other interventions, but crossover interventions also have the most limitations in terms of applicability. Randomized controlled trial is generally applicable, but impractical or inappropriate for some interventions, and before-after-control-impact appears to be the most widely applicable study design for predator-targeted interventions.     

Use of fluff in a coking coal blend in a pilot scale

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Fluff is a shredder waste made up mostly of polymeric material generated in semi-integrated steel manufacturing plants, which is usually disposed...     

Dynamics of phosphorus forms in the bottom sediments and their interstitial water for the Prut River (Moldova)

Phosphorus concentration in rivers results from both external inputs and internal loading from the bottom sediments. Seasonal, spatial, and multi-annual dynamics of phosphorus forms in bottom sediments and their interstitial water for the river Prut (Moldova) were evaluated. In order to determine content of total phosphorus in the bottom sediments, fresh (wet) samples were subjected to persulfate oxidation. The content of inorganic phosphorus was determined after acidic oxidation of samples. The amount of organic phosphorus was obtained by subtracting inorganic phosphorus from the amount of total phosphorus. Content of phosphorus forms in interstitial water was determined after centrifugation of fresh (wet) sediments. In general, the shape of dynamics of the amounts of inorganic phosphorus in sediments was close during years?2009, 2010, and 2011, with registered higher contents of this form on the middle course of the river. The spatial dynamics of organic phosphorus is less homogeneous along the Prut River. During 2009, higher amounts of organic phosphorus were recorded on the middle sector. During the spring of year?2010, the content of organic phosphorus in sediments was practically not changed along the river. The ratio of inorganic/organic phosphorus in bottom sediments was similar during the researched years, with the predominance of the inorganic phosphorus being recorded. Also, the increasing tendency of the percentage of organic phosphorus from spring to summer was identified. Generally, appropriate spatial and seasonal dynamics of phosphorus forms in bottom sediments and their interstitial water were recorded, although sometimes with some differences.     

Sulfur organic compounds in bottom sediments of the eastern Gulf of Finland

Background, Aims and Scope Despite the large number of studies on the forms of sulfur in marine deposits, investigations on sulfur organic compounds are still rare. It is known that the processes leading to formation of intermediate and final sulfur compounds (including organic ones) in modern deposits are the results of microbiological transformation of sulfur containing proteins, as well as the microbiological reduction of sulfate ions. The latter are finally reduced by anaerobic sulfate-reducing bacteria to H₂S, HS⁻ and S²⁻; the total sum of these is referred to as ‘hydrogen sulfide’ in chemical oceanography. Further, the formation of reduced sulfur organic derivatives (sulfides and polysulfides) is the result of interaction of the organic substance destruction products with the sulfide ions. In such cases, the main source of organic substances, as well as sulfates for the sulfur reducing processes, is the pore water in the sediments. The choice of the target of our study is based on the fact that the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland water area receives the bulk of the anthropogenic load of the St. Petersburg region. Low vertical intermixing of the water thickness is observed there (thus creating a deficiency of oxygen near the bottom), and the bottom sea current transfers the polluted salty water of the Baltic Sea into the Neva Bay. The whole of the above are the preconditions for the formation of sulfur-bearing organic compounds. A great number of bottom sediment samples for analytical surveys were collected in the Eastern Gulf of Finland during research expeditions in the years of 1997 and 2001. These were screened for structures of sulfur organic microcontaminants, including organic forms of sulfur, using advanced instrumentation and experienced personnel in our two, cooperating laboratories. This work is a part of the research being carried out on organic micro-admixtures present in bottom sediments, and is the summary of our findings on previously unstudied sulfur organic substances there. Materials and Methods A number of sulfur organic compounds present in nineteen bottom sediment samples from the Eastern Gulf of Finland (EGF) were characterized by high performance gas chromatography connected to low and high resolution mass spectrometers (GC/LRMS and GC/HRMS). The structure screening was carried out as compared with literature and library mass spectra, and taking the GC retention times into account. In the cases of an absence of mass spectra not in the literature, interpretation of the most probable structures was performed with the help of high resolution mass-spectrometric data, fragmentation rules for sulfur-bearing organic substances and ICLU simulation of spectra. These data were registered to form a conclusive ‘fingerprint’ for identification and confirmation of the structure of each novel compound found, e.g. by later syntheses of authentic model compounds. The relative contents of sulfur organic compounds were determined from MS response ratios of each compound to 2-fluorine naphthalene (internal standard). Results This paper is a completion of work, which has been published in part as three papers in the European Journal of Mass Spectrometry. As the total study result, 43 sulfur-bearing compounds were characterized. The mass spectra of 20 of them were found in the literature. The most probable structures for the 23 compounds whose mass-spectra were not available in the literature data were proposed. All of those 23 compounds were detected in bottom sediments for the first time, and 5 of them were described as originating from plants or being generated by chemical synthesis products, while the remaining 18 substances were previously unknown. The structures of these were deduced to be most probably the following (in order of their GC retention): dichloromethyl thiylsulfenylchloride, chloromethyl dichloromethyl disulfide, 3,4-dithiacyclohexene, 1,2,4-trithiacycloheptane, 1,2,3-trithiacyclohexane, tetrathiacyclopentane, 3,4,5-trithiacyclohexene, 1,2,4-trithiacyclohexane, cyclopropylhydrotrisulfide, 1,2-dithiane-3-thiol, 1,3-dithiane-2-thiol, bis(trichloromethyl)-tri-sulfide, 1,2,4,5-tetrathiacyclohexane, 1,2,3,4-tetrathiacycloheptane, 1,2,3,4-tetrathiacycloheptane, 1,2,3,4-tetrathia-cyclo-hexane, pentathiacyclohexane, and 1,2,4,6-tetrathiacyclooctane. The highest amounts of sulfur organic compounds were found in the deepest, bottom areas in the open part of the sea, where the salinity was highest, and oxygen deficiency occurred as well. Also, some coastal places with a high solid matter deposition rate had elevated contents of sulfur organic compounds. Discussion From the 43 sulfur organic compounds found, the HRMS data provided the atomic composition of the molecular ions for 16 compounds with a high confidence (see Table 3). The LRMS spectra could be identified with catalogue or literature spectra in 29 cases. The MS information obtained was insufficient in two cases: 1) The obvious molecular ion (at m/z 110) of compound 1 was not visible in LRMS. 2) For compound 43, the HRMS measurement, due to the low intensity (2%) of the molecular ion (m/z 210), could not exclude the presence of 2 oxygen atoms (instead of one sulfur atom) in the molecule. Major fragments, however, of our 43, certainly contained no oxygen atoms according to HRMS. The limited LRMS data in the literature, for an isomer of 43, had m/z values of all fragments different from those of the compound found by us. The retention times (RT) formed one more evidence for identity between compounds in different samples. The use of different non-polar columns in GC and similar, but not identical, temperature programs produced eluted peaks of novel and known compounds in each sample (mixture) in GC/HRMS and GC/LRMS. These gave sets of RTs which were in a very significant linear correlation (measured example R = 0.999866, p = 1.85E-06, N = 5). Therefore, the RTs in the HRMS analysis systems could be converted to values comparable with those from the LRMS device. The RT values, HRMS m/z values, LRMS spectra, and ICLU simulation results for each organic sulfur compound form an identification ‘fingerprint’. The interpretation of these experimental data, with supporting use of fragmentation rules, allow the giving of a provisional name and structure to the ‘suspect’. In this study and in environmental surveys of micropollutants in general, the compounds suspected of anthropogenic or natural origin occur at low levels in complex mixtures. Therefore, no bulk amount of an authentic, pure model substance for the suspect is available quite often. The most probable name and structure from the fingerprint data are very useful in guiding the preparation of the model substance for a conclusive identification. Similarly, the unknown criminal can be identified in advance by forensic science and his fingerprint, DNA, etc. as registered before the arrest. The analogy can be found in the literature and CAS register of organic polysulfides, which in great part consists of the results of sensitive mixture analysis methods. Conclusions Sediment of the Eastern Gulf of Finland is over large areas anaerobic, as indicated by the existence of novel, non-oxygenated sulfur organic microcontaminants. These substances were most abundant in anoxic and saline, deep bottom regions, and, in addition, in one coastal area near industrial discharges. This occurrence, and also the limited information about sulfur organic compounds in scientific literature, is considered evidence for the dominantly natural processes in their formation. Recommendations and Perspectives The importance and necessity of investigating the sulfur organic compounds in the bottom sediments, result from the fact that their presence can be an indicator of stable anaerobic processes. Similarly, the oxygen disappearance (anoxia) in the marine water, due to a high concentration of the sulfate ions and relatively high content of organic matter, is practically always connected with the appearance of hydrogen sulfide and sulfides. The generation of sulfur organic compounds precedes the formation of the new, or expansion of the existing anaerobic (‘hydrogen sulfide’) zones, which lead to such environmental disasters as mass destruction of hydrobionts. Many organic compounds of sulfur, including sulfides and polysulfides, are toxic to the aquatic organisms. Therefore, in addition to the danger of mass wholesale deaths of marine fauna in the bottom sediments region, there exists a probability of secondary pollution of the water thickness as well, due to the entry of those substances from bottom sediments in the water when the environmental conditions are changed (stormy weather, floods, geological activity of the earth’s crust, etc.).     

Statistical analysis of trends in organic pollution and pollution by nutrients at selected Danube river stations

The paper describes an application of a statistical analysis for estimating long-term trends in pollutant concentrations of selected pollutants in the Danube river. The results show the changes of concentrations of NH(4)(+)-N, NO(3)(-)-N, PO(4)(3-)-P, total P, BOD(5) and COD(Cr) in a ten year period with the aim to find how the concentrations vary in the whole stretch of this river. The study was based on the data collected in the frame of Transnational Monitoring Network of the ICPDR. To obtain plausible results we have chosen statistical methods, such as tests based on the Spearman correlation coefficient and median regression, which are not sensitive to departures from normality as high skewness or outliers.