Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems--results of a model validation study

The primary objective of the IAEA's BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) was to bring together experimental radioecologists and modellers to facilitate the exchange of information which could be used to improve our ability to understand and forecast radionuclide transfers within forests. This paper describes a blind model validation exercise which was conducted by the FWG to test nine models which members of the group had developed in response to the need to predict the fate of radiocaesium in forests in Europe after the Chernobyl accident. The outcomes and conclusions of this exercise are summarised. It was concluded that, as a group, the models are capable of providing an envelope of predictions which can be expected to enclose experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests over the time scale tested. However, the models are subject to varying degrees of conceptual uncertainty which gives rise to a very high degree of divergence between individual model predictions, particularly when forecasting edible mushroom contamination. Furthermore, the forecasting capability of the models over future decades currently remains untested.     

Equilibrium of radiocesium with stable cesium within the biological cycle of contaminated forest ecosystems

Concentrations of (137)Cs and stable Cs were determined in plant, mushroom, lichen and soil samples collected at two forest sites with different contamination levels in Belarus in 1998. The concentration of (137)Cs in soil was the highest in near-surface organic layers (Of and Oh horizons) and decreased with depth in the mineral layers, whereas the concentrations of stable Cs were almost constant in the soil profile. The levels of (137)Cs and stable Cs in biological samples varied depending both on the species and the plant part sampled. Even though different species and parts of the same species were included, the concentration ratios of (137)Cs to stable Cs were fairly constant for samples collected at the same forest site, and were in the same order of magnitude as the (137)Cs to stable Cs ratios for the organic soil layers. This finding suggests that (137)Cs, mainly deposited on the forest ecosystems from the Chernobyl accident in 1986, was well mixed with stable Cs within the biological cycle in the forest ecosystems by 1998. The transfer factor for each biological sample of (137)Cs was almost the same as that of stable Cs, if they were calculated based on the concentrations in the Of + Oh layer. This suggests that the stable-Cs-based transfer factor could be used as equilibrium transfer factor of (137)Cs for different types of biological samples in the forest.     

Worldviews,institutions and sustainability: An introduction to a co-evolutionary perspective

This work analyzes hierarchical and causal relationship between worldview, institutions, technology and economic behaviour under conditions of informational uncertainty.

In our pursuit of sustainable living, institutions function both as constraints and as primary instruments of change of socio-economic behaviour. The process of radical institutional change is contingent upon prior change in the dominant worldview, while its dynamics resembles that of a paradigm change in political and scientific arenas. Therefore, the timely and adaptive outcome of institutional change with respect to global environmental problems remains intrinsically uncertain.     

Ozone Air Quality over North America: Part II—An Analysis of Trend Detection and Attribution Techniques

ABSTRACT

Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O₃ air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific clima-tological and anthropogenic forcings, are instrumental to this assessment. Detection and attribution are difficult because changes in pollutant concentrations of interest to policymakers may be much smaller than natural variations due to weather and climate. In addition, there are considerable differences in reported trends seemingly based on similar statistical methods and databases. Differences arise from the variety of techniques used to reduce nontrend variation in time series, including mitigating the effects of meteorology and the variety of metrics used to track changes. In this paper, we review the trend assessment techniques being used in the air pollution field and discuss their strengths and limitations in discerning and attributing changes in O₃ to emission control policies.     

Ozone Air Quality over North America: Part I—A Review of Reported Trends

ABSTRACT

Ozone and precursor trends can be used to measure the effectiveness of regulatory programs that have been implemented. In this paper, we review trends in the concentrations of O₃, NO_x, and HCs over North America that have been reported in the literature. Although most existing trend studies are confounded by meteorological variability, both the raw data trends and the trends adjusted for meteorology collectively indicate a general decreasing trend in O concentrations in most areas of the United States during 1985-1996. In Canada, mean daily maximum 1-hr O₃ concentrations at urban sites show mixed trends with a majority of sites showing an increase from 1980 to 1993. Mean daily maximum 1-hr O₃ at most regionally representative Canadian sites appears to decrease from 1985 to 1993 or shows no significant change. There are far fewer data and analyses of NO_x and HC trends. Available studies covering various ranges of years indicate decreases in ambient NO_x and HC concentrations in Los Angeles, CA, decreases in HC concentrations in northeastern U.S. cities, and decreases in NO concentrations in Canadian cities. Two key needs are long-term HC and NO_x measurements, particularly at rural sites, and a systematic comparison of trend detection techniques on a reference data set.     

Diplomacy for science: strategies to promote international collaboration

Technology innovation is an increasingly globalized exercise with dramatic consequences for scientific and diplomatic goals alike, and requires enhanced participation and integration of scientists and science-minded diplomats within diplomatic missions to advance shared policy goals. This more general problem is addressed in the present article by focusing on recent collaborations between U.S. and German scientists, including several of the coauthors.     

Multi-criteria risk management with the use of <Emphasis Type="Italic">DecernsMCDA</Emphasis>: methods and case studies

Emerging challenges of risk management, environmental protection, and land-use planning requires integration of stakeholder values and expert judgment. The process of decision making in situation of high uncertainty can be assisted through the use of decision support systems (DSSs). Such DSSs are often based on tools for spatial data representation (GIS) and environmental models that are integrated using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This paper presents DecernsMCDA implementing all major types of multi-criteria methods and tools (AHP, MAUT, Outranking) under the same user interface. In addition to providing ability for testing model uncertainty associated with selection of specific MCDA algorithms, DecernsMCDA implements new algorithms for parameter uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy sets. The paper illustrates application of DecernsMCDA for selecting remedial alternative at radiologically contaminated sites.     

Algorithms and models for decision making in advanced technology systems

Environment Systems and Decisions -