From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: recent developments and applications

Environmental risk assessment and decision-making strategies over the last several decades have become increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex, including such approaches as expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, and toxicological risk assessment. One tool that has been used to support environmental decision-making is comparative risk assessment (CRA), but CRA lacks a structured method for arriving at an optimal project alternative. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides better-supported techniques for the comparison of project alternatives based on decision matrices, and it also provides structured methods for the incorporation of project stakeholders' opinions in the ranking of alternatives. We argue that the inherent uncertainty in our ability to predict ecosystem evolution and response to different management policies requires shifting from optimization-based management to an adaptive management paradigm. This paper brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in CRA, MCDA, and adaptive management methods applicable to environmental remediation and restoration projects. We propose a basic decision analytic framework that couples MCDA with adaptive management and its public participation and stakeholder value elicitation methods, and we demonstrate application of the framework to a realistic case study based on contaminated sediment management issues in the New York/New Jersey Harbor.     

Phytoplankton distribution across the southeast Adriatic continental and shelf slope to the west of Albania (spring aspect)

We present the first insight to the oceanography of the southeastern Adriatic Sea, where coastal water influenced by Albanian rivers comes into contact with the inflowing oligotrophic Eastern Adriatic Current (Ionian Surface Water and Levantine Intermediate Water). A distinct plankton distribution was observed on each side of the shelf break hydrographic boundary in May 2009, during gradual warming of the surface waters. The prochlorophytes accumulated along the nutricline above the shelf and continental slope. The phosphorus limited inshore waters were dominated by a small diatom Chaetoceros circinalis, dinoflagellates, cryptophytes, autotrophic picoplankton, and heterotrophic nanoplankton. The offshore surface layer was characterized by bigger nanoplankton (coccolithophorids, green flagellates). Low nutrient concentrations influence relatively low productivity not only above the Albanian shelf but also further to the north along the Montenegrine and Croatian coastal Adriatic Sea.     

South-Siberian mountain mires: Perspectives on a potentially vulnerable remote source of biodiversity

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01596-w.     

In search for a compromise between biodiversity conservation and human health protection in restoration of fly ash deposits: effect of anti-dust treatments on five groups of arthropods

Recently, fly ash deposits have been revealed as a secondary refuge of critically endangered arthropods specialised on aeolian sands in Central Europe. Simultaneously, these anthropogenic habitats are well known for their negative impact on human health and the surrounding environment. The overwhelming majority of these risks are caused by wind erosion, the substantial decreasing of which is thus necessary. But, any effects of anti-dust treatments on endangered arthropods have never been studied. We surveyed communities of five arthropod groups (wild bees and wasps, leafhoppers, spiders, hoverflies and orthopteroid insects) colonising three fly ash deposits in the western Czech Republic. We focused on two different anti-dust treatments (~70 and 100 % cover of fly ash by barren soil) and their comparison with a control of bare fly ash. Altogether, we recorded 495 species, including 132 nationally threatened species (eight of them were considered to be extinct in the country) and/or 30 species strictly specialised to drift sands. Bees and wasps and leafhoppers contained the overwhelming majority of species of the highest conservation interest; a few other important records were also in spiders and orthopteroids. Total soil cover depleted the unique environment of fly ash and thus destroyed the high conservation potential of the deposits. On the other hand, partial coverage (with ~30 % of bare fly ash) still offered habitats for many of the most threatened species, as we showed by both regression and multivariate analyses, with a decrease of wind erosion. This topic still needs much more research interest, but we consider mosaic-like preservation of smaller spots of fly ash as one of the possible compromises between biodiversity and human health.     

Algorithms and models for decision making in advanced technology systems

Environment Systems and Decisions -     

The history of seabird colonies and the North Water ecosystem: Contributions from palaeoecological and archaeological evidence

The North Water (NOW) polynya is one of the most productive marine areas of the Arctic and an important breeding area for millions of seabirds. There is, however, little information on the dynamics of the polynya or the bird populations over the long term. Here, we used sediment archives from a lake and peat deposits along the Greenland coast of the NOW polynya to track long-term patterns in the dynamics of the seabird populations. Radiocarbon dates show that the thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) and the common eider (Somateria mollissima) have been present for at least 5500 cal. years. The first recorded arrival of the little auk (Alle alle) was around 4400 cal. years bp at Annikitsoq, with arrival at Qeqertaq (Salve Ø) colony dated to 3600 cal. years bp. Concentrations of cadmium and phosphorus (both abundant in little auk guano) in the lake and peat cores suggest that there was a period of large variation in bird numbers between 2500 and 1500 cal. years bp. The little auk arrival times show a strong accord with past periods of colder climate and with some aspects of human settlement in the area.