Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.     

Minimax regret discounting

The paper considers an environmental policy decision in which the appropriate approach for discounting future costs and benefits is unknown. Uncertainty about the discount rate is formulated as a decision under Knightian uncertainty. To solve this, we employ minimax regret, a decision criterion that is much less conservative then the related criterion maximin—in particular, it can be shown to implement a “proportional response” in that it equally balances concern about the mistake of doing too little with that of doing too much. Despite the criterion's balanced nature, the minimax regret solution mimics a policy that maximizes the present discounted value of future net benefits with an effective (certainty-equivalent) discount rate that declines over time to the lowest possible rate. In addition to reinforcing Weitzman's (1998) original limiting result, the approach generates concrete policy advice when decision makers are unable to specify a prior over possible discount rates. We apply it to the Stern–Nordhaus discounting debate and find that the effective discount rate converges to the Stern rate in just under 200 years.     

A riparian wildlife habitat evaluation scheme developed using GIS

Recent Italian laws mandate the consideration of environmental factors in local plans, especially at the provincial level of government. The plan for the province of Cremona in northern Italy illustrates the integration of the environment in provincial-level planning. The Cremona plan was developed through an ecological planning approach that occurred from 1994 to 1998. As part of this process, the planning team designed an environmental sustainability index. This index was integrated with an environmental capability analysis. To improve the quality of the Cremona landscape, the planning team developed an ecological network. This network seeks to weave together the natural areas of the province, especially by connecting provincial parks to regional river parks throughout Lombardy. The experience of the Cremona provincial plan has implications for environmental management elsewhere in Italy, Europe, and abroad.     

Does male harassment of females contribute to reproductive synchrony in the grey seal by affecting maternal performance?

We investigated the possibility that male harassment of lactating females differed in relation to time of birth in the grey seal, Halichoerus grypus, on Sable Island, Nova Scotia. This was done by comparing the frequency of male disturbances, maternal performance and pup growth for females that either gave birth during the peak of the pupping season or after the peak. Of the females, 58% gave birth in a 7-day period near the beginning of the pupping period, when the operational sex ratio was 2–4 females per male. Late in the pupping period the operational sex ratio reversed to about 1 female for every 2 males. The relative frequency of disturbances by males was significantly greater for late-pupping mothers than for peak-pupping ones (1.9 vs. 1.4 encounters/h). Females that gave birth late also were disturbed by males 3 times more often than females that gave birth during the peak (3.4 vs. 1.1 % of observation time). Late-pupping mothers spent 22% less time suckling (4.0 vs. 5.1 % of observation time), had 30% slower growing pups (1.7 vs. 2.4 kg/d), and weaned pups that were 16% lighter (45.6 vs. 54.0 kg). The effect of birth time on pup mass gain and weaning mass was not attributable to factors such as maternal mass, pup birth mass or pup sex. We conclude that the reduced maternal performance is likely the result of the increased male harassment. As reduced weaning mass can lead to reduced juvenile survival, male harassment may have contributed to the enhanced reproductive synchrony in this species.     

2,4,6-Trinitrotoluene detection using recombinant antibodies

The ability to detect low levels of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) in aqueous samples is important due to the toxicity of both TNT and its breakdown products. We have been characterizing recombinant anti-TNT antibodies isolated from the Griffin library of phage displayed scFvs by selection for binders to the TNT-surrogate 2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TNB) coupled to the protein bovine serum albumin. Two candidate antibody fragments, TNB1 and TNB2, were isolated and evaluated by ELISA for their ability to bind to TNB coupled to the protein ovalbumin. Competition ELISA was then used to demonstrate antibody fragment binding to TNT in solution and to examine cross-reactivity towards several TNT-related compounds and other explosives. Both recombinant antibody fragments were incorporated into a continuous flow assay for the detection of TNT. TNB2, the best single chain antibody, showed a limit of detection of 1 ng ml(-1), comparable to a commercially available anti-TNT antibody in the same assay format.     

Project Engineering

Abstract

Screening of biofiltering material for treatment of volatile organic compounds was performed by using a gas stream containing methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) as a target pollutant. Filtering media (FM) for screening were prepared by blending compost (such as pig and cow manure) and filling material (such as fern chips, wheat bran, and bagasse). Results show that a blend of pig manure/fern chips = 9:1 (wt basis) was superior with respect to the stability of the pH and the water-holding capacity of the FM and in the capacity for treating the target compound. Complete removal of the target compound was obtained at an organic loading of 100 g per cubic meter of filtering media per hour. By using the screened FM for treating MEK and toluene, long-term stability (>1,200 hours) and complete removal can be obtained at an organic loading of 50 g per cubic meter of FM per hour for either compound.     

Effect of fluid concentration in titanium machining with an atomization-based cutting fluid (ACF) spray system

The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of metal-working fluid (MWF) concentration on the machining responses including tool life and wear, cutting force, friction coefficient, chip morphology, and surface roughness during the machining of titanium with the use of the ACF spray system. Five different concentrations from 5 to 15% of a water-soluble metalworking fluid (MWF) were applied during turning of a titanium alloy, Ti–6Al–4V. The thermo-physical properties such as viscosity, surface tension and thermal conductivity of these concentrations were also measured. The test results demonstrate that the tool life first extends with the increase in MWF concentration and then drops with further increase. At low concentration (e.g., 5%), a lack of the lubrication effect causes to increase in a higher friction at the tool–chip interface resulting in severe chipping and tool nose/flank wear within a short machining time. On the other hand, at high concentration, the cooling effect is less. This increases cutting temperature and a faster thermal softening/chipping/notching of the tool material and higher friction at the tool–chip–workpiece interaction zones resulting in early tool failure. A good balance between the cooling and the lubrication effects seems to be found at the 10% MWF concentration as it offers the best machining performance. However, machining with flood coolant is observed to perform the best in the range of 5–7%.     

Simulation model for wind-driven summer phytoplankton dynamics in Auke Bay,Alaska

A model was developed for use in simulating effects of short-term wind-mixing of the water column on estuarine phytoplankton dynamics. Simulation results, using parameter values estimated from field data, exhibited maxima observed in phytoplankton standing crop over a summer in Auke Bay, Alaska. Short-term wind-mixing of the water column can be important in determining the time of occurrence of phytoplankton community productivity pulses in deep estuaries.     

Linking movement, diving, and habitat to foraging success in a large marine predator

Establishing where and when predators forage is essential to understanding trophic interactions, yet foraging behavior remains poorly understood in large marine carnivores. We investigated the factors leading to foraging success in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the Northwest Atlantic in the first study to use simultaneous deployments of satellite transmitters, time depth recorders, and stomach-temperature loggers on a free-ranging marine mammal. Thirty-two seals were each fitted with the three types of instrumentation; however, complete records from all three instruments were obtained from only 13 individuals, underscoring the difficulty of such a multi-instrument approach. Our goal was to determine the characteristics of diving, habitat, and movement that predict feeding. We linked diving behavior to foraging success at two temporal scales: trips (days) and bouts (hours) to test models of optimal diving, which indicate that feeding can be predicted by time spent at the bottom of a dive. Using an information-theoretic approach, a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with trip duration and accumulated bottom time per day best explained the number of feeding events per trip, whereas the best predictor of the number of feeding events per bout was accumulated bottom time. We then tested whether characteristics of movement were predictive of feeding. Significant predictors of the number of feeding events per trip were angular variance (i.e., path tortuosity) and distance traveled per day. Finally, we integrated measures of diving, movement, and habitat at four temporal scales to determine overall predictors of feeding. At the 3-h scale, mean bottom time and distance traveled were the most important predictors of feeding frequency, whereas at the 6-h and 24-h time scales, distance traveled alone was most important. Bathymetry was the most significant predictor of feeding at the 12-h interval, with feeding more likely to occur at deeper depths. Our findings indicate that several factors predict feeding in gray seals, but predictor variables differ across temporal scales such that environmental variation becomes important at some scales and not others. Overall, our results illustrate the value of simultaneously recording and integrating multiple types of information to better understand the circumstances leading to foraging success.