Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

The sands of Forvie (Scotland): A case study in geomorphology and conservational management

The Sands of Forvie, National Nature Reserve, Scotland is a complex coastal sand dune system which is associated with the dynamic estuary of the River Ythan. The dune system has developed over more than 5000 years. The south part is a peninsula of dunes, sand hills, sand arcs, erosion and deflation surfaces. The north part is superimposed on a rock plateau with a cliff coastline. This plateau is covered in glacial deposits and is essentially an upland heath landscape. Some of the best examples of large active parabolic dunes in Britain are found in North Forvie. The sequence of geomorphic development is described. As a nature reserve with a rich ecology it has been managed for conservational purposes since 1960s. As such it is an excellent case study of how conservational management has changed to become more flexible and more aware of the importance of dynamic processes.     

Genetic differentiation in a pelagic crustacean (Meganyctiphanes norvegica: Euphausiacea) from the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea

Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars)is a pelagic crustacean that plays a key role in marine food webs of North Atlantic Ocean and marginal seas. We studied eight population samples collected in the European Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. By means of single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP) and direct sequencing, we investigated a segment of 158 base pairs of the mitochondrial gene coding for the subunit 1 of NADH dehydrogenase. We found 12 sequence variants among the 385 individuals studied. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that 14.75% of the total genetic variability was explained by differences between populations, thus indicating absence of panmixia for these populations. Pairwise comparisons revealed three distinct genetic pools: the first one represented by Cadiz Bay, the second one by the Ligurian Sea, and the third one included all the NE Atlantic samples. We also investigated one population from the Alboran Sea (within the Mediterranean basin, east of the Strait of Gibraltar). This population was found to be genetically intermediate between the NE Atlantic samples and the Ligurian sample, suggesting that the restriction to the gene flow is not associated with the Strait of Gibraltar, but possibly with the Oran–Almeria oceanographic front. The present work indicates that M. norvegica, although endowed with a high dispersal capacity because of its pelagic habit, can develop separate breeding units inside the same oceanic basin (the Atlantic). Furthermore, the Ligurian sample should be considered as a distinct evolutionary entity, separated from the Atlantic population. Received: 2 May 1999 / Accepted: 26 November 1999     

Escape responses of four Chilean intertidal limpets to seastars

The Chilean intertidal Lottiidae limpet fauna consists of at least nine species, grouped into the monophyletic taxon Scurria and a single taxon preliminarily designated as `Lottia' orbignyi (Dall). Within the Scurria clade, the most basal species are Scurria variabilis (Sowerby), S. viridula (Lamarck), and S.zebrina (Lesson), and among the most crown groups are S. ceciliana (Orbigny) and S. araucana (Orbigny). This phylogenetic information, obtained by the analysis of molecular characters (16S mtDNA), provides a framework for a comparative study of behavioral characters. In this study, we analyze the escape responses of two basal limpet species (`L.' orbignyi and S. viridula) and two derived limpet species (S. araucana and S. ceciliana) in the presence of the limpet predatory seastar Heliaster helianthus (Lamarck) and the limpet non-predatory seastars Stichaster striatus Muller and Troschel and Patiria chilensis Lutken. Neither P.chilensis nor Stichaster striatus induced escape responses such as those observed with the predatory H. helianthus. Moreover, in the presence of H. helianthus, basal and derived limpet species differed significantly in the percentage of individuals responding, reaction time, and duration of the response. The basal species `L.' orbignyi and Scurriaviridula exhibited instantaneous and vigorous locomotor responses, whereas the derived species S. araucana and S. ceciliana displayed no locomotor responses. The same pattern was found in responses to H. helianthus homogenates. The results strongly suggest a correlation between phylogeny and anti-predator escape responses to the seastar H. helianthus. Alternative escape responses have evolved for basal and derived species within the Chilean clade. Received: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 16 August 2000     

Phylogeny and biogeographic history of hake (genus Merluccius), inferred from mitochondrial DNA control-region sequences

 Phylogenetic analyses of the left domain of the mitochondrial DNA control-region sequence have been used to examine the relationships among species of the genus Merluccius (Rafinesque, 1810), and to compare these with hypotheses based on morphological, meristic and allozyme characters. Analysis of aligned sequences revealed that transition bias was much lower than in mammalian mtDNA, and that nucleotide composition of control-region sequences was biased toward A and T. We have roughly calibrated a molecular clock for the genus, based on the rise of the Isthmus of Panamá, which is believed to have created a barrier to dispersal between marine species of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Our mtDNA-based phylogeny was highly congruent with allozyme-based phylogenies, but poorly so with a previously described phylogeny based on morphology. Specifically, our phylogeny resolved two well-supported principal clades, one of American (west Atlantic and east Pacific) species and the other of Euro–African (east Atlantic) species. This suggests an evolutionary history during which the ancestral lineage of Merluccius was divided between two geographic regions, with subsequent dispersal and vicariant events resulting in the evolution and distribution of extant taxa. However, the relationships between some taxa within the American clade could not be resolved. We suggest that this is consistent with an hypothesis of a rapid origin and radiation of these taxa. Received: 12 December 1998 / Accepted: 15 October 1999     

Size-related aspects of arm damage, tissue mechanics, and autotomy in the starfish Asterias rubens

 Arm damage is a widely reported but superficially investigated aspect of the biology of the starfish Asterias rubens L. In the present study, the incidence of arm damage was surveyed in populations of A.  rubens at two sites in the Firth of Clyde, Scotland, and three sites in Gullmarsfjorden, Sweden. The mean (±SD) incidence across all sites of individuals with basal arm damage (resulting from detachment at the basal autotomy plane) was 19.69 ± 8.86%, the incidence of those with distal arm damage (resulting from amputation at more distal levels) was 7.74 ± 10.01%. The mean incidence of arms with basal damage was 5.28 ± 4.12%, of those with distal damage 1.83 ± 2.45%. There was a significant negative correlation between size and the incidence of basal damage at all but one site, but no significant correlation between size and distal damage at any site. Mechanical tests on specimens of the aboral body wall from the basal region of the arm (which included the autotomy plane) and from a more distal region revealed that with increasing body size there was a significant increase in yield stress, ultimate stress and Young's modulus (stiffness) but no significant change in yield strain and ultimate strain. There was no significant difference between the relationships for basal and distal specimens. It is hypothesised that in larger individuals increased mechanical toughness replaces autotomy as an effective antipredator strategy. Using two methods to induce autotomy, a significant positive correlation between size and the delay between the onset of stimulation and arm detachment was found; this may represent a size-related decline in the efficiency of the autotomy mechanism through the relaxation of selection pressure. Since size is an unreliable indicator of age in A.  rubens, the trends identified herein can be interpreted only tentatively as age-associated phenomena. Received: 4 September 1999 / Accepted: 17 February 2000     

Allozyme electrophoresis indicates high gene flow between populations of Holothuria (Microthele) nobilis (Holothuroidea: Aspidochirotida) on the Great Barrier Reef

 Genetic variation in 15 Holothuria (Microthele) nobilis (Selenka, 1867) populations on the Great Barrier Reef was studied at seven polymorphic allozyme loci. Although populations were separated by distances up to 1300 km, there were no apparent restrictions to gene flow (F _ST values were not significantly different from 0) and the maximum Nei's unbiased genetic distance was 0.003. Populations were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium at all loci. The estimated maximum sexual input [this is the ratio of the number of sexually produced individuals (N*) to the sample size (N _i )] and the minimum sexual input [this is the ratio of the number of genotypes (N _go ) over the sample size (N _i )] were used as estimators for the amount of asexual reproduction. Both parameters suggested that H. nobilis reproduces solely by sexual means (N*:N _i : = 1; N _go :N _i  = 0.74 to 1). The allozyme data indicated high gene flow between populations, but the possibility that allozyme frequencies may not be at equilibrium means that it was not possible to distinguish whether the patterns reflect present-day dispersal or dispersal that occurred in the past. Received: 27 March 2000 / Accepted: 29 June 2000     

The nature of heat coma in Littorina littorea (Mollusca: Gastropoda)

 The nature of heat coma was examined in the edible periwinkle Littorina littorea (L.). Duration of acclimation did not influence heat-coma temperature at 12 °C, although other acclimation temperatures were important in influencing thermal tolerance, with positive shifts in coma temperature observed in response to elevated temperatures. Previous thermal history also influenced heat-coma temperatures. Individuals subjected to repeat heat-coma events on a daily basis showed significant declines (P < 0.05) in coma-temperature; in contrast individuals exposed to repeat heat-coma events on a weekly basis showed no decline in thermal tolerance. Size-effects occurred at selected sites, where decreased heat-coma temperatures were recorded in large individuals. Received: 16 August 1999 / Accepted: 13 June 2000     

Patterns of time and space utilisation in coelacanths (Latimeria chalumnae), determined by ultrasonic telemetry

Acoustic telemetry was used to examine patterns of activity and space utilisation of coelacanths, nocturnal predators which spend the day in submarine caves. Nine coelacanths (Latimeria chalumnae) were tracked, each for a period of 1 to 16 nights at Grande Comore, West Indian Ocean. Activities lasted on average 9 h, usually starting shortly after sunset and ending before sunrise. Vertically, coelacanths moved up and down at and below cave level by following the bottom contour, mainly between 180 and 400 m depth. The deepest record was 698 m, the shallowest 133 m. Most time was spent between 200 and 300 m depth. Large individuals performed deep excursions to depths below 400 m, usually once per night. The fish spent most time in water temperatures of 15 to 19 °C; they rarely ventured into waters warmer than 22 °C measured at depths shallower than 160 m depth. Horizontally, coelacanths stayed in narrow areas ranging from <1 to 10 km of coastline. Coelacanths are extremely slow drift-hunters with an estimated average swimming speed of 3.2 m min⁻¹, often travelling not more than 3 km per night. They probably take advantage of local upwelling and downwelling and slow currents occurring parallel to the steep slopes. This study shows that coelacanths are inhabitants of the subphotic zone, where they are active mainly below the depth of their daytime refuges. Received: 7 July 1999 / Accepted: 11 February 2000