Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess evidence among competing ecological models that describe system dynamics.     

加快实施“CCP”系统工程进度促进社会经济与环境的协调发展

加快实施“ＣＣＰ”系统工程进度促进社会经济与环境的协调发展烟台市福山区环保局孙承平，孙同旭为进一步落实第四次全国环保会议和第六次全省环保会议精神，加快烟台市政府１９９３年提出的“全国控制环境污染系统工程（‘ＣＣＰ’系统工程）”进度，实现社会经济与环境...     

Spatial and temporal variability of the overall error of National Atmospheric Deposition Program measurements determined by the USGS collocated-sampler program, water years 1989-2001

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collocated-sampler program for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) are used to estimate the overall error of NADP/NTN measurements. Absolute errors are estimated by comparison of paired measurements from collocated instruments. Spatial and temporal differences in absolute error were identified and are consistent with longitudinal distributions of NADP/NTN measurements and spatial differences in precipitation characteristics. The magnitude of error for calcium, magnesium, ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate concentrations, specific conductance, and sample volume is of minor environmental significance to data users. Data collected after a 1994 sample-handling protocol change are prone to less absolute error than data collected prior to 1994. Absolute errors are smaller during non-winter months than during winter months for selected constituents at sites where frozen precipitation is common. Minimum resolvable differences are estimated for different regions of the USA to aid spatial and temporal watershed analyses.     

Policy planning under uncertainty: efficient starting populations for simulation-optimization methods applied to municipal solid waste management

Evolutionary simulation-optimization (ESO) techniques can be adapted to model a wide variety of problem types in which system components are stochastic. Grey programming (GP) methods have been previously applied to numerous environmental planning problems containing uncertain information. In this paper, ESO is combined with GP for policy planning to create a hybrid solution approach named GESO. It can be shown that multiple policy alternatives meeting required system criteria, or modelling-to-generate-alternatives (MGA), can be quickly and efficiently created by applying GESO to this case data. The efficacy of GESO is illustrated using a municipal solid waste management case taken from the regional municipality of Hamilton-Wentworth in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The MGA capability of GESO is especially meaningful for large-scale real-world planning problems and the practicality of this procedure can easily be extended from MSW systems to many other planning applications containing significant sources of uncertainty.     

Drug and drink driving by university students: an exploration of the influence of attitudes

The present study aimed to gather information on drug and alcohol use, the prevalence of drink and drug driving and attitudes to both in an undergraduate university cohort (n = 275). Further, the study aimed to contribute information to aid intervention program development by determining predictors of drink and drug driving behavior. The study examines both drug and alcohol use and the influence of attitudes toward driving while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. Results indicated that significant proportions of university students are engaging in the risk-taking behavior of driving under the influence of drugs (25%), alcohol (14%), or both (8%). The results suggest that attitudes toward driving under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs are a strong predictor of engaging in the behavior. Peer influence emerged as a major aspect of attitudes. The results of this study provide an important beginning to understanding drink and drug driving and the influence of attitudes in the university student body.     

Contaminant Exposure and Effects in Red-Winged Blackbirds Inhabiting Stormwater Retention Ponds

Stormwater wetlands are created to retain water from storms and snow melt to reduce sediment, nutrient, and contaminant pollution of natural waterways in metropolitan areas. However, they are often a source of attractive habitat to wetland-associated wildlife. In this study of 12 stormwater wetlands and a larger, older reference site, elevated concentrations of zinc and copper were found in sediments and carcasses of 8-day-old red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) nestlings inhabiting stormwater sites. Although nesting success in the stormwater wetlands was comparable to national averages, sediment zinc concentrations correlated with clutch size, hatching success, fledgling success, and Mayfield nest success, suggesting that the nestlings may have been stressed and impaired by elevated zinc. This stress may have been direct on the nestlings or indirect through effects on the availability of food organisms.Published online     

Two high-speed, portable GC systems designed for the measurement of non-methane hydrocarbons and PAN: results from the Jungfraujoch High Altitude Observatory

Near real-time measurements of light non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) have been performed in the free troposphere using two fast gas chromatography (GC) instruments designed for use on aircraft. A GC-helium ionisation detector (HID) system measured 15 C(2)-C(5) hydrocarbons with 5 min time resolution and a dual channel GC-Electron Capture Detector (ECD) measured PAN with 90 s resolution. Both instruments had low parts per trillion by volume (pptV) detection limits and ran continuously at the remote Jungfraujoch (JFJ) research station in the Swiss Alps (46.55[degree]N, 7.98[degree]E), 3580 m above mean sea level (AMSL), during February/March 2003. Carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide and all odd nitrogen species (NO(y)) were also measured continuously. Hydrocarbons and CO were strongly correlated in all air-masses whilst PAN exhibited both positive and negative correlations with respect to O(3), dependent on age and origin of the air-mass sampled. PAN was found to contribute [similar]20% to the NO(y) sampled on average. The experiment, as well as providing interesting datasets from this remote location, also demonstrated that when optimised, GC techniques have the potential to measure at a time resolution significantly greater than is traditionally considered, with high sensitivity and low uncertainty.     

Cluster analysis of structural stage classes to map wildland fuels in a Madrean ecosystem

Geospatial information technology is changing the nature of fire mapping science and management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system technology coupled with remotely sensed data provide powerful tools for mapping, assessing, and understanding the complex spatial phenomena of wildland fuels and fire hazard. The effectiveness of these technologies for fire management still depends on good baseline fuels data since techniques have yet to be developed to directly interrogate understory fuels with remotely sensed data. We couple field data collections with GIS, remote sensing, and hierarchical clustering to characterize and map the variability of wildland fuels within and across vegetation types. One hundred fifty six fuel plots were sampled in eight vegetation types ranging in elevation from 1150 to 2600 m surrounding a Madrean 'sky island' mountain range in the southwestern US. Fuel plots within individual vegetation types were divided into classes representing various stages of structural development with unique fuel load characteristics using a hierarchical clustering method. Two Landsat satellite images were then classified into vegetation/fuel classes using a hybrid unsupervised/supervised approach. A back-classification accuracy assessment, which uses the same pixels to test as used to train the classifier, produced an overall Kappa of 50% for the vegetation/fuels map. The map with fuel classes within vegetation type collapsed into single classes was verified with an independent dataset, yielding an overall Kappa of 80%.     

Biodegradability of Atrazine,Cyanazine and Dicamba under methanogenic condition in three soils of China

Persistence and degradation of the herbicides Atrazine, Cyanazine and Dicamba were measured in laboratory microcosms incubated under methanogenic condition using three soils of China. Results showed that Atrazine was more resistant to degradation than Cyanazine and Dicamba for the 300 days of incubation. Between 30% and 40% of the initially introduced chemicals were found to be not recoverable through solvent extraction of the incubated soils. Our results also indicated that the half-life of these herbicides in the three soils generally followed: Atrazine>Cyanazine>Dicamba. Biodegradation of Cyanazine and Dicamba was further substantiated by establishing enrichment cultures in which the degradation of the respective herbicides could be accelerated by the microorganisms. Our results suggest that biodegradation of xenobiotics can be established through enrichment culture transfer technique and non-extractability of chemicals should be taken into account in evaluation of chemicals' fate and risk.