Optimal annual routines: new tools for conservation biology?

Many applied problems in ecology and conservation require prediction, and population models are important tools for that purpose. Formerly, the majority of predictive population models were based on matrix models. As the limitations of classical matrix models have become clearer, the use of individual-based models has increased. These models use behavioral rules imposed at the level of the individual to establish the emergent consequences of those rules at the population level. Individual behaviors in such models use an array of different rule types, from empirically derived probabilities to long-term fitness considerations. There has been surprisingly little discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of these different rule types. Here, we consider different strategies for modeling individual behaviors, together with some problems associated with individual-based models. We propose a novel approach based on modeling optimal annual routines. Annual routines allow individual behaviors to be predicted over a whole annual cycle within the context of long-term fitness considerations. Temporal trade-offs between different behaviors are automatically included in annual routine models, overcoming some of the primary limitations of other individual-based models. Furthermore, as well as population predictions, individual behaviors and indices of condition are emergent features of annual routine models. We show that these can be more sensitive to environmental change than population size, offering alternative, repeatable metrics for monitoring population status. Annual routine models provide no panacea for the problems of data limitations in predictive population modeling. However, as a result of their ability to deal with life-history trade-offs, as well as their potential for relatively rapid and accurate validation and parameterization, we suggest that annual routine models have strong potential for predictive population modeling in applied conservation settings.     

Application of modeling and simulation tools in costs and pollution monitoring

This paper presents the development and application of process modeling and simulation tools to aid in the monitoring and measuring of pollution from industry, and investigate a plant's overall performance. A case study of a generic reduction plant is investigated, taking into account the underlying principles that determine the amount of fluoride emissions released from the plant's processes. The simulation study includes the investigation of the gas cleaning system within the plant, such as the system's operating relationships between the scrubbing efficiency, wear of the scrubber filter bags, maintenance costs and its response to the change of scrubbing circulation. Two sets of simulation runs are performed to seek a balance for the plant's overall system performance, taking into account environmental issues (fluoride emissions) and cost. The final simulation result demonstrates that cost savings can be achieved when the plant operates in a cleaner manner.     

Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico from Streams in the South‐Central United States1

Rebich, Richard A., Natalie A. Houston, Scott V. Mize, Daniel K. Pearson, Patricia B. Ging, and C. Evan Hornig, 2011. Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico From Streams in the South‐Central United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1061‐1086. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00583.x Abstract: SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to estimate nutrient inputs [total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP)] to the northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico from streams in the South‐Central United States (U.S.). This area included drainages of the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas‐White‐Red, and Texas‐Gulf hydrologic regions. The models were standardized to reflect nutrient sources and stream conditions during 2002. Model predictions of nutrient loads (mass per time) and yields (mass per area per time) generally were greatest in streams in the eastern part of the region and along reaches near the Texas and Louisiana shoreline. The Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River watersheds, which drain nearly two‐thirds of the conterminous U.S., delivered the largest nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, as expected. However, the three largest delivered TN yields were from the Trinity River/Galveston Bay, Calcasieu River, and Aransas River watersheds, while the three largest delivered TP yields were from the Calcasieu River, Mermentau River, and Trinity River/Galveston Bay watersheds. Model output indicated that the three largest sources of nitrogen from the region were atmospheric deposition (42%), commercial fertilizer (20%), and livestock manure (unconfined, 17%). The three largest sources of phosphorus were commercial fertilizer (28%), urban runoff (23%), and livestock manure (confined and unconfined, 23%).     

Migration path annotation: cross-continental study of migration-flight response to environmental conditions

Understanding the movements of animals is pivotal for understanding their ecology and predicting their survival in the face of rapid global changes to climate, land use, and habitats, thus facilitating more effective habitat management. Migration by flying animals is an extreme form of movement that may be especially influenced by weather. With satellite telemetry studies, and the growing availability of information about the Earth's weather and land surface conditions, many data are collected that can advance our understanding about the mechanisms that shape migrations. We present the track annotation approach for movement data analysis using information about weather from the North American Reanalysis data set, a publicly available, regional, high-resolution model-observation hybrid product, and about topography, from a publicly available high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). As a case study, we present the analysis of the response to environmental conditions in three contrasting populations of Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) across North America, tracked with a three-dimensional GPS-based sensor. Two populations in the east and west coasts of the United States responded similarly to weather, indicating use of both slope and thermal soaring. Continental-interior, "Plains populations," exhibited a different migratory pattern primarily indicative of thermal soaring. These differences help us understand the constraints and behaviors of soaring migrants. The track annotation approach allowed large-scale comparative study of movement in an important migratory species, and will enable similar studies at local to global scales.     

Monitoring the growth of American beech affected by beech bark disease in Maine using the Kalman filter

The effect of beech bark disease on tree growth was tracked using paired resistant and susceptible American beech trees in two locations in Maine. Within each site, the paired trees were chosen in close proximity and with similar morphological characteristics (e.g. stem diameter and crown class) to minimize environment effects in subsequent analysis. A Kalman filter approach was employed to analyse the yearly time-dependent mean differences between paired susceptible and resistant tree-ring widths using simple structural time series models in state space form. On one site, under the influence of a moderate maritime climate, stand dynamics is hypothesized to account for the 34 year difference in onset of decline of trees in codominant, versus those in the intermediate crown classes. The harsher winter conditions associated with the second, more northerly site and known to limit the insect component of the disease complex, are hypothesized to be more of a factor in the close (six year) difference in decline onset between the two crown classes on this site. Some strengths and cautions in the Kalman filter approach are discussed in relation to the analysis of time-dependent trends in tree-ring series.     

The safety of obstetrical ultrasound: a review

Ultrasound is a commonly employed imaging modality in obstetrics and is generally regarded as safe to the fetus. Current ultrasound technology, however, has significantly higher output potential than older machines used in most clinical studies, and the safety profile for the increasing use of Doppler, 3-dimensional (D) and 4-D ultrasound with modern machines is unknown. This article reviews the current status of ultrasound safety within obstetrics, including proposed mechanisms of harm, existing scientific and clinical evidence regarding those mechanisms, and considerations of safety for the clinical user. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal daily routines of singing and foraging in a bird singing to attract a mate

Summary In this paper we develop a dynamic programming model to explore the optimal organization of daily routines of singing and foraging in a small bird. While singing the bird may attract a mate but uses up energy. Most of the patterns of daily variation in singing generated have basic features very characteristic of typical passerine song output. The predictions are remarkably robust to changes in a wide range of parameters, showing which parameters are important. A peak of singing at dawn can result from variability in overnight energy expenditure in the absence of any circadian patterns in the environment.     

用大型底栖动物和ODP系统评价珠江的有机污染

采用大型底栖动物需氧有机体百分率ODP(oxygen demander percentage)法对广州珠江前航道、西航道和流溪河的下游段进行河流有机污染评价.结果显示:底栖动物需氧类群密度在三河段间分布确有显著性差异,并根据其ODP可以判断流溪河水质相对较好,水质级别为中国地表水环境质量标准(EQSSW)Ⅳ级,西航道和前航道水质级别都为Ⅴ级.通过测试,这一方法能成功地应用在珠江及流溪河,且该法可以较好地匹配于EQSSW五级评价系统,初步认为ODP系统可以成为一个较好的河流水质生物监测方法.图3表4参13     

Rick-sensitive foraging in common shrews: an interruption model and the effects of mean and variance in reward rate

Summary A model of risk-sensitive foraging based on a continuously foraging but interruptable predator is developed and tested in a simple choice experiment using common shrews.Given a choice of two feeding stations, shrews behaved in accordance with the broad predictions of the model. Having been trained below their estimated food requirement, shrewss preferred the station y elding the higher mean reward rate, but prefereence for a constant (constant reward rate) or risky variable reward rate) station was influenced by experience of variance in reward rate at the risky station.Preference was influenced most clearly by experience of reward rate variance during tests rather than training.