In recent 2 years, the incidence of influenza showed a slight upward trend in Guangxi; therefore, some joint actions should be done to help preventing and controlling this disease. The factors analysis of affecting influenza and early prediction of influenza incidence may help policy-making so as to take effective measures to prevent and control influenza. In this study, we used the cross correlation function (CCF) to analyze the effect of climate indicators on influenza incidence, ARIMA and ARIMAX (autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables) model methods to do predictive analysis of influenza incidence. The results of CCF analysis showed that climate indicators (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, O3, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average relative humidity, and sunshine duration) had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. People need to take good precautions in the days of severe air pollution and keep warm in cold weather to prevent influenza. We found that the ARIMAX (1,0,1)(0,0,1)12 with NO2 model has good predictive performance, which can be used to predict the influenza incidence in Guangxi, and the predicted incidence may be useful in developing early warning systems and providing important evidence for influenza control policy-making and public health intervention.
• Air masses from Zhejiang Province is the major source of O3 in suburban Shanghai.• O3 formation was in VOC-sensitive regime in rural Shanghai.• O3 formation was most sensitive to propylene in rural Shanghai. A high level of ozone (O3) is frequently observed in the suburbs of Shanghai, the reason for this high level remains unclear. To obtain a detailed insight on the high level of O3 during summer in Shanghai, O3 and its precursors were measured at a suburban site in Shanghai from July 1, 2016 to July 31, 2016. Using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and concentration weighted trajectories (CWT), we found that Zhejiang province was the main potential source of O3 in suburban Shanghai. When the sampling site was controlled by south-western winds exceeding 2 m/s, the O3-rich air masses from upwind regions (such as Zhejiang province) could be transported to the suburban Shanghai. The propylene-equivalent concentration (PEC) and ozone formation potential (OFP) were further calculated for each VOC species, and the results suggested that propylene, (m+p)-xylene, and toluene played dominant roles in O3 formation. The Ozone Isopleth Plotting Research (OZIPR) model was used to reveal the impact of O3 precursors on O3 formation, and 4 base-cases were selected to adjust the model simulation. An average disparity of 18.20% was achieved between the simulated and observed O3 concentrations. The O3 isopleth diagram illustrated that O3 formation in July 2016 was in VOC-sensitive regime, although the VOC/NOx ratio was greater than 20. By introducing sensitivity (S), a sensitivity analysis was performed for O3 formation. We found that O3 formation was sensitive to propylene, (m+p)-xylene, o-xylene and toluene. The results provide theoretical support for O3 pollution treatment in Shanghai. 相似文献
Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Bio-drying has been proved to be a promising method for treatment of MSW (municipal solid waste) and sewage sludge due to its high energy... 相似文献
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The carbon emission reduction in city regions as a result of the optimization of urban spatial layout is crucial for combating global warming and has... 相似文献
Salinity levels vary spatially in coastal areas, depending on proximity to freshwater sources, and may also be slowly decreasing
as a result of anthropogenic climatic changes. The impact of salinity on host–parasite interactions is potentially a key regulator
of transmission processes in intertidal areas, where trematodes are extremely common parasites of invertebrates and vertebrates.
We investigated experimentally the effects of long-term exposure to decreased salinity levels on output of infective stages
(cercariae) and their transmission success in the trematode Philophthalmus sp. This parasite uses the snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus as intermediate host, in which it asexually produces cercariae. After leaving the snail, cercariae encyst externally on hard
substrates to await accidental ingestion by shorebirds, which serve as definitive hosts. We found that at reduced salinities
(25 or 30 psu), the cercarial output of the parasite was lower, the time taken by cercariae to encyst was longer, fewer cercariae
successfully encysted and encysted parasites had lower long-term survival than at normal seawater salinity (35 psu). The strong
effect of salinity on the replication and transmission of this parasite suggests that there may be sources and sinks of transmission
to birds along coastal areas, depending on local salinity conditions. Also, unless it evolves to adapt to changing conditions,
the predicted reduction in salinity as a consequence of climate change may have negative impact on the parasite’s abundance. 相似文献