APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

Improvement of thermal hydrolysis rate of dichloroacetic acid using alcohol

Dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) is produced during the oxidation of trichloroethylene. It is also produced in drinking water treatment as a disinfection by-product. DCAA is a problem material, because of its toxicity. The objective of this research is to find the final products and the reaction pathway of the DCAA decomposition by hydrolysis, and to increase the hydrolysis rate. The removal of both chlorine atoms in DCAA structure was achieved with hydrolysis at around 75 degrees C, and the final products were oxalic acid and glycolic acid. The reaction pathway was the production of oxalic acid and glycolic acid from two glyoxylic acid molecules by Cannizzaro reaction after the glyoxylic acid production from dechlorination of DCAA with hydrolysis. The hydrolysis rate of DCAA was increased with the use of 90% ethanol solution as solvent. The activation energy of DCAA was about 80 kJ/mol in it, while it was around 105 kJ/mol in water.     

Evaluation of solubility of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ethyl lactate/water versus ethanol/water mixtures for contaminated soil remediation applications

Solubility data of recalcitrant contaminants in cosolvents is essential to determine their potential applications in enhanced soil remediation. The solubilities of phenanthrene, anthracene, fluoranthene and benzo[a]pyrene in ethyl lactate/water and ethanol/water mixtures were measured using equilibrium techniques. The cosolvency powers derived from solubility data were then applied to the model developed from the solvophobic approach to predict the capability of ethyl lactate and ethanol in enhancing the desorption of contaminants from soils. Both ethyl lactate and ethanol cosolvents were shown to be able to enhance the solubilisation of the tested four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons by > 4 orders of magnitude above the levels obtained with water alone. However, ethyl lactate demonstrated a greater capacity to enhance PAH solubility than ethanol. The cosolvency powers of ethyl lactate/water system obtained from the end-to-end slope (σ) and the end-to-half slope (σ_0.5) of the solubilisation curve were 1.0--1.5 and 2.0--2.9 higher than ethanol/water system respectively. In line with this, ethyl lactate/water was demonstrated to enhance the desorption of contaminants from soil by 20%--37% and 18%--61% higher compared to ethanol/water system in low organic content and high organic content soils respectively, with a 2:1 (V/W) ratio of solution:soil and with cosolvent fraction as low as 0.4. With the exception of benzo[a]pyrene, the experimental desorption results agreed fairly with the predicted values, under an applied solution:soil ratio that was enough to hold the capacity of released contaminants.     

Radium isotopes in the Ulsan Bay

In order to estimate the fluxes of Ra isotopes, we measured 224Ra, 226Ra, and 228Ra activities in the Ulsan Bay mixing zone. The convex upwards curvature of the plot of Ra isotope activities versus salinity for the mixing zone suggests that Ra isotopes are supplied from particles entering the mixing zone from both the river and bottom sediments. This addition increases the estuarine flux of 226Ra and 228Ra to the outer sea by factors of 15 and 95 over the flux attributable to Ra dissolved in the riverine water alone. In order to estimate the residence time of the water in Ulsan Bay, we applied a mass balance model to the distribution of 224Ra and 226Ra activities in the Ulsan Bay mixing zone with the inflow from the Taehwa River. The obtained residence times of the waters in the Ulsan Bay were estimated to be 6.8-11.4 d. The waters in the upper part of the estuary have long residence times whereas those in the lower part, in contact with the open sea, have shorter residence times. The mean residence time of the water in the Ulsan Bay was estimated to be 9.1 d.     

A taxonomy of performance influencing factors for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks

This paper introduces the process for, and the result of, the selection of performance influencing factors (PIFs) for the use in human reliability analysis (HRA) of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants. The approach taken in this study largely consists of three steps. First, a full-set PIF system is constructed from the collection and review of existing PIF taxonomies. Secondly, PIF candidates are selected from the full-set PIF system, considering the major characteristics of emergency situations and the basic criteria of PIF for use in HRA. Finally, a set of PIFs is established by structuring representative PIFs and their detailed subitems from the candidates. As a result, a set of PIFs comprised of the 11 representative PIFs and 39 subitems was developed.     

Cadmium accumulation and elimination in tissues of juvenile olive flounder, Paralichthys olivaceus after sub-chronic cadmium exposure

Experiments were carried out to investigate the accumulation and elimination of cadmium (Cd) in tissues (gill, intestine, kidney, liver and muscle) of juvenile olive flounder, Paralichthys olivaceus, exposed to sub-chronic concentrations (0, 10, 50, 100 microg l(-1)) of Cd. Cd exposure resulted in an increased Cd accumulation in tissues of flounder with exposure periods and concentration, and Cd accumulation in gill and liver increased linearly with the exposure time. At 20 days of Cd exposure, the order of Cd accumulation in organs was gill > intestine > liver > kidney > muscle and after 30 days of exposure, those were intestine > gill > liver > kidney > muscle. An inverse relationship was observed between the accumulation factor (AF) and the exposure level, but AF showed an increase with exposure time. During the depuration periods, Cd concentration in the gill, intestine and liver decreased immediately following the end of the exposure periods. No significant difference was found Cd in concentration in the kidney and muscle during depuration periods. The order of Cd elimination rate in organs were decreased intestine > liver > gill during depuration periods.     

Removal of ammonia by biofilters: a study with flow-modified system and kinetics

The characteristics of ammonia removal by two types of biofilter (a standard biofilter with vertical gas flow and a modified biofilter with horizontal gas flow) were investigated. A mixture of organic materials such as compost, bark, and peat was used as the biofilter media based on the small-scale column test for media selection. Complete removal capacity, defined as the maximum inlet load of ammonia that was completely removed, was obtained. The modified biofilter showed complete removal up to 1.0 g N/kg dry material/day. However, the removal capacity of the standard biofilter started to deviate from complete removal around 0.4 g N/kg dry material/day, indicating that the modified biofilter system has higher removal efficiency than the standard upflow one. In kinetic analysis of the biological removal of ammonia in each biofilter system, the maximum removal rate, Vm, was 0.93 g N/kg dry material/day and the saturation constant, Ks, was 32.55 ppm in the standard biofilter. On the other hand, the values of Vm and Ks were 1.66 g N/kg dry material/day and 74.25 ppm, respectively, in the modified biofilter system.     

Accumulation of butyl- and phenyltin compounds in starfish and bivalves from the coastal environment of Korea

Triphenyltin (TPT) and tributyltin (TBT) concentrations were determined in two starfish species (Asteria pectinifera and Asterias amurensis), bivalves (Crassostrea gigas or Mytilus edulis), and seawater samples from sites around the coasts of Korea. Both TPT and TBT concentrations in starfish ranged from 8 to 1560 ng/g and from <2 to 797 ng/g as Sn on a dry weight basis, respectively. TPT concentration accounted for 75.4% and 86.4% of total phenyltin concentration in A. pectinifera and A. amurensis, respectively, while monobutyltin, a degradation product of TBT, accounted for 86.3% and 57.2% of total butyltin, respectively. Triphenyltin concentrations in A. pectinifera were significantly correlated to water and bivalve TPT concentrations, which implies that dietary uptake of TPT from contaminated prey as well as direct uptake from surrounding water contribute to TPT body residues in the starfish. Starfish could be target organisms for monitoring TPT compound in the marine environment, due to their high accumulation and low degradation capacity towards TPT.     

Combustion characteristics of spent catalyst and paper sludge in an internally circulating fluidized-bed combustor

Combustion of spent vacuum residue hydrodesulfurization catalyst and incineration of paper sludge were carried out in thermo-gravimetric analyzer and an internally circulating fluidized-bed (ICFB) reactor. From the thermo-gravimetric analyzer-differential thermo-gravimetric curves, the pre-exponential factors and activation energies are determined at the divided temperature regions, and the thermo-gravimetric analysis patterns can be predicted by the kinetic equations. The effects of bed temperature, gas velocity in the draft tube and annulus, solid circulation rate, and waste feed rate on combustion efficiency of the wastes have been determined in an ICFB from the experiments and the model studies. The ICFB combustor exhibits uniform temperature distribution along the bed height with high combustion efficiency (>90%). The combustion efficiency increases with increasing reaction temperature, gas velocity in the annulus region, and solid circulation rate and decreases with increasing waste feed rate and gas velocity in the draft tube. The simulated data from the kinetic equation and the hydrodynamic models predict the experimental data reasonably well.