Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

Polymorphism in the brown alga<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Dictyota dichotoma</Emphasis> (Dictyotales,Phaeophyceae) from Korea

Two morphotypes of Dictyota dichotoma of uncertain taxonomic status have been identified in Korea. The broad thallus type is common on the south and east coasts of Korea, and is similar to European D. dichotoma in gross morphology. The slender thallus type is only found on the west coast. Morphological differences between the two plant types are evident in their thallus width, their terminal bifurcations, the shapes of apices, and their thallus thickness. The differences in the size and shape of the tetrasporangia and tetraspores are also notable. Plants from the east coast exhibit a dominant asexual annual life-cycle involving sporophytes but not gametophytes, and maintain their population by the production of in-situ germlings. In the slender plants from the west coast, a sexual life-cycle dominates. The rbcL, rbcS, psaA and psbA gene sequence differences between the two morphotypes were congruent with morphological, anatomical and phenological characteristics. In spite of these differences, there is no known inbreeding barrier between these two morphotypes. The L_m/L_c values of the second internodes from two types are also within the range of the species criterion specified by Hörnig et al. These results suggest that the two types of D. dichotoma from Korea should be classified as a single species and that they may be in the process of speciation due to geographical isolation (allopatric speciation).Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe     

Sources of productive efficiency: International comparison of iron and steel firms

Using a time-varying stochastic frontier model, this paper examines the technical efficiency of firms in the iron and steel industry to try to identify the factors contributing to the industry's efficiency growth. Industry observers and policymakers tend to cite most frequently three possible sources of efficiency growth: privatization; economies of scale; and vintage of equipment. Our study corroborates these factors. Based on our findings, which pertain to 52 iron and steel firms over the period of 1978–1997, privatization is likely to improve the efficiency of iron and steel firms to a great extent as evidenced in various industries. This study also provides systematic evidence that iron and steel production shows economies of scale. In addition, newer vintages of equipment are found to be closely correlated with higher levels of efficiency. This clearly indicates that investment in new plants and equipments is critical in pursuit of efficiency in the iron and steel industry.     

WATER MANAGEMENT AND N,P LOSSES FROM PADDY FIELDS IN SOUTHERN KOREA1

ABSTRACT: Assessment and control of nutrient losses from paddy fields is important to protect water quality of lakes and streams in Korea. A four‐year field study was carried out to investigate water management practices and losses of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in rice paddy irrigation fields in southern Korea. The amount and water quality of rainfall, irrigation, surface drainage, and infiltration were measured and analyzed to estimate inputs and losses of N and P. The observed irrigation amount surpassed consumptive use, and approximately 52 to 69 percent of inflow (precipitation plus irrigation) was lost to surface drainage. Field data showed that significant amounts of irrigation water and rainfall were not effectively used for rice paddy culture. Water quality data indicated that drainage from paddy fields could degrade the recipient water environment. The nutrient balance indicated that significant amounts of nutrients (29.5 percent of total N and 8.6 percent of total P compared to input) were lost through surface drainage. Furthermore, up to half the nutrient losses occurred during nonstorm periods. The study results indicate that inadequate water management influences N and P losses during both storm and nonstorm periods. Proper water management is required to reduce nutrient losses through surface drainage from paddy fields; this includes such measures as minimum irrigation, effective use of rainfall, adoption of proper drainage outlet structures, and minimized forced surface drainage.     

Asbestos exposure among Seoul metropolitan subway workers during renovation of subway air-conditioning systems

Air quality in underground spaces has seldom been evaluated in Korea. Accordingly, the current study recently evaluated asbestos exposure among Seoul metropolitan subway workers during the renovation of the subway's air-conditioning system. To identify possible routes of asbestos exposure, suspected sources, including gaskets, ceiling boards, ceiling materials, and dust settled inside ducts, were all sampled. Personal air samples were also taken to evaluate any asbestos exposure during the renovation. The asbestos fibers found in the samples were analyzed using a transmission electron microscope (TEM) equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray analyzer (EDX). Twelve out of eighteen bulk samples contained asbestos, the majority of which was chrysotile fibers. Asbestos was detected in 9 out of 72 personal air samples and the level ranged from 0.003 to 0.02 fibers/cm(3). While asbestos levels were below Korean occupational limit of 2 fibers/cm(3), they were still detectable and therefore further monitoring would be appropriate.     

Radon concentrations in groundwater in Busan measured with a liquid scintillation counter method

In this paper, we present the first measurement of radon concentrations in drinking groundwater from private and public deep-bored wells located in the south-eastern area of Korea. The measurements were carried out on 439 samples by using a liquid scintillation method. The results show that the radon concentrations of the samples range from 0 to about 300 Bq l(-1). We find that Sasang ward shows the highest median value of radon concentration among 13 different wards, while Jung ward has the lowest. We find that the radon concentrations are highly dependent on the type of geological rock aquifers.     

Potential source of asbestos in non-asbestos textile manufacturing company

Recently, a worker with lung carcinoma and a metastatic brain tumor was diagnosed as having a work-related disease. He had been employed in a non-asbestos textile company for 25 years. Consequently, to identify and explore possible causative agents for lung cancer in a non-asbestos textile manufacturing company and establish a causal relationship between exposure and lung cancer, an epidemiological investigative study was conducted and the work processes the worker was engaged in were examined. Air samples were taken from the workplace and during the drilling processes, and a suspected causative material was analyzed. The study revealed that the subject had been employed in the non-asbestos textile manufacturing company for 25 years from 1973 and his responsibilities included repairing spinning machines. In particular, the subject was involved in drilling B-bushings that were used to protect against gear abrasion in the spinning machines. An analysis of the B-bushings using a transmission electron microscope equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray analyzer indicated that they contained crocidolite asbestos fibers. Air samples obtained when drilling the B-bushings clearly indicated that the subject had most likely been exposed to crocidolite fibers when installing the B-bushings in the spinning machines. The frequency and duration of the work suggested that there would be a sufficient degree of exposure to crocidolite fibers to cause lung cancer. Except for smoking and asbestos exposure, no other chemical exposure was suspected for developing lung cancer in the workplace. Smoking appeared to be more of a potentiating risk factor in conjunction with the asbestos exposure. Accordingly, this case may provide significant evidence in identifying the cause of the mesothelioma or lung carcinoma found among workers in non-asbestos textile manufacturing companies elsewhere.     

To court or not to court: reproductive decisions by male fiddler crabs in response to fluctuating food availability

For males, courting and foraging are often behavioral alternatives, which take time and consume energy. When males have a possibility of mating with receptive females, there may be a behavioral trade-off between courtship and feeding; the outcome of which may be affected by male physiological condition and food availability. Although many mathematical models and empirical studies suggest that the expression of male courtship signals are condition-dependent, decisions about courtship and mating strategies in relation to food availability have not attracted much attention. In this study, we tested whether daily changes in food availability affect males’ decisions about whether to court. We conducted experiments with the fiddler crab Uca lactea by providing males with additional food every other day. In food-supplemented enclosures, males did not increase courtship activity on the days when food was supplemented. However, they built more courtship structures (semidomes) and waved more on the days when they were not given additional food. Male size had a strong influence on the number of days the males courted. We also tested whether the frequency of surface mating, as an alternative reproductive tactic, decreased when food was supplemented. Contrary to our expectation, the number of males that exhibited the surface-mating tactic increased when food was supplemented whereas the number of mate-searching females did not change. Our findings in this field study suggest that reproductive decisions by male fiddler crabs are affected by fluctuating food availability and present body condition, and the alternative mating tactic of this species may be more frequently used by males under good condition.     

The effects of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans</Emphasis> on the leaching of cobalt and strontium adsorbed onto soil particles

Bioleaching from soil artificially contaminated with analogues of radionuclides, Co and Sr, was carried out using a Fe-oxidizing bacterium, Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans. Due to bacterial metabolism, the pH and dissolved Fe³⁺ concentration in a biotic slurry decreased and increased respectively, over time, but the concentrations of Co and Sr extracted from the soil showed no significant enhancement compared with those under abiotic control. In both cases, Co and Sr were leached from the soil during the initial period of the experiment, due to the initially low solution pH of 2.0, and the dissolved concentrations remained almost constant for the duration of the experiment (300 h). Since oxidation of Fe²⁺ by A. ferrooxidans led to the production of Fe precipitates and colloidal suspensions, the Co and Sr extracted into solution were most likely re-adsorbed onto the Fe solids. Also, A. ferrooxidans, without an external supply of Fe²⁺, extracted almost equal or greater amounts of Co and Sr from the soil than when Fe²⁺ was supplied. Under the same leaching conditions, the extent of Sr removal was much lower than that of Co. On the contrary to the high efficiency of microbial metal leaching in biohydrometallurgy for low-graded sulfide ores, which has been widely documented, conventional bioleaching techniques with A. ferrooxidans supplied with enough Fe²⁺ showed low efficiency for the removal of radionuclides loosely bound onto soil particle surfaces.     

Human health risk assessment of explosives and heavy metals at a military gunnery range

In this research, a risk assessment was undertaken in order to develop the remediation and management strategy of a contaminated gunnery site, where a nearby flood controlling reservoir is under construction. Six chemicals, including explosives and heavy metals, posing potential risk to environmental and human health, were targeted in this study. A site-specific conceptual site model was constructed, based on effective, reasonable exposure pathways, to avoid any overestimation of the risk. Also, conservative default values were adapted to prevent underestimation of the risk when site-specific values were not available. The risks posed by the six contaminants were calculated using the API’s Decision Support System for Exposure and Risk Assessment, with several assumptions. In the crater-formed-area (Ac), the non-carcinogenic risks (i.e., HI values) of tri-nitro-toluene (TNT) and Cd were slightly larger than 1, but for RDX (Royal Demolition Explosives) was over 50. The total non-carcinogenic risk of the whole gunnery range was calculated to be 62.5, which was a significantly high value. The carcinogenicity of Cd was estimated to be about 10⁻³, while that for Pb was about 5 × 10⁻⁴, which greatly exceeded the generally acceptable carcinogenic risk level of 10⁻⁴–10⁻⁶. It was concluded from the risk assessment that there is an immediate need for remediation of both carcinogens and non-carcinogens before construction of the reservoir. However, for a more accurate risk assessment, further specific estimations of the changes in environmental conditions due to the construction of the reservoir will be required; and more over, the effects of the pollutants to the ecosystem will also need to be evaluated.