The macro implications of a complete transformation of U.S. agricultural production to organic farming practices

A national interregional linear programming model of U.S. agriculture is used to evaluate and compare two conventional and three organic production alternatives. The objective is to estimate the effects on production, supply prices, land use, farm income, and export potential, of a complete transformation of U.S. agriculture to organic practices. Crop yields and production costs are estimated for 150 producing regions for seven crops under both conventional and organic methods. Results indicate that compared with conventional methods, widespread organic farming leads to a decrease in total production, lower export potential, higher supply prices, higher value of production, lower costs of production, and higher net farm income. The United States domestic crop demand can be met with organic methods, but would be more expensive. Some interregional shifts in crop production would also occur.     

Toward Consensus-Based Actions that Balance Invasive Plant Management and Conservation of At-Risk Fauna

Limiting the spread of invasive plants has become a high priority among natural resource managers. Yet in some regions, invasive plants are providing important habitat components to native animals that are at risk of local or regional extirpation. In these situations, removing invasive plants may decrease short-term survival of the at-risk taxa. At the same time, there may be a reluctance to expand invaded habitats to benefit at-risk species because such actions may increase the distribution of invasive plants. Such a dilemma can result in “management paralysis,” where no action is taken either to reduce invasive plants or to expand habitats for at-risk species. A pragmatic solution to this dilemma may be to develop an approach that considers site-specific circumstances. We constructed a “discussion tree” as a means of initiating conversations among various stakeholders involved with managing habitats in the northeastern USA to benefit several at-risk taxa, including New England cottontails (Sylvilagus transitionalis). Major components of this approach include recognition that expanding some invaded habitats may be essential to prevent extirpation of at-risk species, and the effective control of invasive plants is dependent on knowledge of the status of invasives on managed lands and within the surrounding landscape. By acknowledging that management of invasive plants is a complex issue without a single solution, we may be successful in limiting their spread while still addressing critical habitat needs.     

Effects of Stock Use and Backpackers on Water Quality in Wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA

During 2010–2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker-use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E. coli) than those categorized as minimal-use (P ≤ 0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E. coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas (P ≤ 0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E. coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.     

Flooding in Texas: Examination of Temporal Changes and Impacts of Tropical Cyclones

Annual maximum peak discharge measurements from 62 stations with a record of at least 70 years are used to assess extreme flooding in Texas at the regional scale. This work focuses on examination of the validity of the stationarity assumption and on the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on the upper tail of the flood peak distribution. We assess the validity of the stationarity assumption by testing the records for abrupt and gradual changes. The presence of abrupt changes in the first two moments of the flood peak distribution is assessed using the Lombard test. We use the Mann‐Kendall test to examine the presence of monotonic trends. Results indicate that violations of the stationarity assumption are most commonly caused by abrupt changes, which are often associated with river regulation. We fit the time series of stationary flood records with the generalized extreme value distribution to investigate whether TCs control the upper tail of the flood peak distribution. Our results indicate that TCs play a diminished role in shaping the upper tail of the flood peak distribution compared with areas of the eastern United States subject to frequent TCs.     

Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) pose risks to coastal communities around the world, but societal understanding of the distributional and equity implications of SLR impacts and adaptation actions remains limited. Here, we apply a new analytic tool to identify geographic areas in the contiguous United States that may be more likely to experience disproportionate impacts of SLR, and to determine if and where socially vulnerable populations would bear disproportionate costs of adaptation. We use the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to identify socially vulnerable coastal communities, and combine this with output from a SLR coastal property model that evaluates threats of inundation and the economic efficiency of adaptation approaches to respond to those threats. Results show that under the mid-SLR scenario (66.9 cm by 2100), approximately 1,630,000 people are potentially affected by SLR. Of these, 332,000 (～20%) are among the most socially vulnerable. The analysis also finds that areas of higher social vulnerability are much more likely to be abandoned than protected in response to SLR. This finding is particularly true in the Gulf region of the United States, where over 99% of the most socially vulnerable people live in areas unlikely to be protected from inundation, in stark contrast to the least socially vulnerable group, where only 8% live in areas unlikely to be protected. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the equity and environmental justice implications of SLR in climate change policy analysis and coastal adaptation planning.     

Individual lifetime pollen and nectar foraging preferences in bumble bees

Foraging specialization plays an important role in the ability of social insects to efficiently allocate labor. However, relatively little is known about the degree to which individual bumble bees specialize on collecting nectar or pollen, when such preferences manifest, and if individuals can alter their foraging preferences in response to changes in the colony workforce. Using Bombus impatiens, we monitored all foraging visits made by every bee in multiple colonies and showed that individual foragers exhibit consistent lifetime foraging preferences. Based upon the distribution of foraging preferences, we defined three forager types (pollen specialists, nectar specialists, and generalists). In unmanipulated colonies, 16–36?% of individuals specialized (≥90?% of visits) on nectar or pollen only. On its first day of foraging, an individual’s foraging choices (nectar only, pollen only, or nectar and pollen) significantly predicted its lifetime foraging preferences. Foragers that only collected pollen on their first day of foraging made 1.61- to 1.67-fold more lifetime pollen foraging visits (as a proportion of total trips) than foragers that only collected nectar on their first foraging day. Foragers were significantly larger than bees that stayed only in the nest. We also determined the effect of removing pollen specialists at early (brood present) or later (brood absent) stages in colony life. These results suggest that generalists can alter their foraging preferences in response to the loss of a small subset of foragers. Thus, bumble bees exhibit individual lifetime foraging preferences that are established early in life, but generalists may be able to adapt to colony needs.     

Effect of Diel Activity Patterns and Harvesting Pressure on the Diversity and Biomass of Sea Cucumbers in Marovo Lagoon, Solomon Islands

A marked decline in the contribution by Marovo Lagoon to the annual total bêche-de-mer production of the Solomon Islands from 58% in 1989 to 17% in 2003 prompted investigation of their current biomass and diversity. We also assessed changes to critical ecological services and the prospects for population recovery following a fisheries closure. Day time and nocturnal transects revealed a mean abundance of 32.4 (SD = 5.3) low value species per ha (e.g. Holothuria atra, H. edulis, H. coluber and Thelenota anax) and 15.2 (SD = 2.7) high value species per ha (e.g. H. fuscogilva, Actinopyga lecanora, Stichopus hermanni and Thelenota ananas). Following a 17 month closure of the fishery (2005–2007), the abundance of bêche-de-mer was reported by local fisherman to have increased; however, no scientific studies were conducted that can substantiate this community held belief. The current study aimed to document the impact of re-opening the fishery in 2007 and documented a decline in high value species of 9% over a 5 month period following the opening of the fishery, while low value species continued to increase in abundance by 11%, over the same period based on nocturnal surveys. Continued observation of the recovery, post closure, and any subsequent harvest in Marovo will be required to properly understand population dynamics and provide a sustainable harvest plan for bêche-de-mer in the future.     

Long-Term Community Dynamics of Small Landbirds with and Without Exposure to Extensive Disturbance from Military Training Activities

Military training activities are known to impact individual species, yet our understanding of how such activities influence animal communities is limited. In this study, we used long-term data in a case study approach to examine the extent to which the local small landbird community differed between a site in northeast Kansas that experienced intensive disturbance from military training activities (Ft. Riley Military Installation) and a similar, nearby site that experienced minimal human disturbance (Konza Prairie Biological Station). In addition, we characterized how the regional pool of potential colonizers influenced local community dynamics using Breeding Bird Survey data. From 1991 to 2001, most species of small terrestrial landbirds (73%) recorded during breeding surveys were found at both sites and the mean annual richness at Ft. Riley (39.0 ± 2.86 [SD]) was very similar to that of Konza Prairie (39.4 ± 2.01). Richness was maintained at relatively constant levels despite compositional changes because colonizations compensated local extinctions at both sites. These dynamics were driven primarily by woodland species that exhibited stochastic losses and gains and were present at a low local and regional abundance. Our results suggest that military training activities may mimic natural disturbances for some species in this area because the small landbird community did not differ markedly between sites with and sites without extensive human disturbance. Although our results suggest that military training is not associated with large changes in the avian community, additional studies are needed to determine if this pattern is found in other ecological communities.     

Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies

Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a “Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)” to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m³/month or m³/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from ?1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past “point” measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment.