Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds1

Maurer, Edwin P., Levi D. Brekke, and Tom Pruitt, 2010. Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1024–1035. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00473.x Abstract: We compare the projected changes to streamflows for three Sierra Nevada rivers using statistically downscaled output from 22 global climate projections. The downscaled meteorological data are used to drive two hydrology models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model and the variable infiltration capacity model. These two models differ in their spatial resolution, computational time step, and degree and objective of calibration, thus producing significantly different simulations of current and future streamflow. However, the projected percentage changes in monthly streamflows through mid-21st Century generally did not differ, with the exceptions of streamflow during low flow months, and extreme low flows. These findings suggest that for physically based hydrology models applied to snow-dominated basins in Mediterranean climate regimes like the Sierra Nevada, California, model formulation, resolution, and calibration are secondary factors for estimating projected changes in extreme flows (seasonal or daily). For low flows, hydrology model selection and calibration can be significant factors in assessing impacts of projected climate change.     

Case study analysis of the financial impact of catastrophic safety events

Several catastrophic events in the process industry have caused extensive damage to life and property and have forever changed the process safety landscape. Despite the commitment from the industry, incidents still occur with similar root causes, impacting major companies in various ways. This work examines the financial impact of such incidents on the stability and future of affected companies in different industries. Several devastating incidents were analyzed to evaluate the direct impact in the short- and long-term and to discuss factors influencing the ability of affected companies to withstand the consequence of catastrophic events.     

Leachate treatment before injection into a bioreactor landfill: Clogging potential reduction and benefits of using methanogenesis

In this study, an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor (ASBR) was operated with leachate from Brady Road Municipal Landfill in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Leachate was collected twice from the same cell at the landfill, during the first and 70th day of the study, and then fed into the ASBR. The ASBR was seeded at the start-up with biosolids from the anaerobic digester from Winnipeg’s North End Water Pollution Control Center (NEWPCC). Due to the higher COD and VFA removal rates measured with the second batch of leachate, an increase of approximately 0.3 pH units was observed during each cycle (from pH 7.2 to 7.5). In addition, CO₂ was produced between cycles at constant temperature where a fraction of the CO₂ became dissolved, shifting the CO₂/bicarbonate/carbonate equilibrium. Concurrent with the increase in pH and carbonate, an accumulation of fixed suspend solids (FSS) was observed within the ASBR, indicating a buildup of inorganic material over time. From it, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ were measured within the reactor on day 140, indicating that most of the dissolved Ca²⁺ was removed within cycles. There is precedence from past researches of clogging in leachate-collection systems (Rowe et al., 2004) that changes in pH and carbonate content combined with high concentrations of metals such as Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ result in carbonate mineral precipitants. A parallel study investigated this observation, indicating that leachate with high concentration of Ca²⁺ under CO₂ saturation conditions can precipitate out CaCO₃ at the pH values obtained between digestion cycles. These studies presented show that methanogenesis of leachate impacts the removal of organic (COD, VFA) as well as inorganic (FSS, Ca²⁺) clog constituents from the leachate, that otherwise will accumulate inside of the recirculation pipe in bioreactor landfills. In addition, a robust methanogenesis of leachate was achieved, averaging rates of 0.35 L CH₄ produced/g COD removed which is similar to the theoretical removal of 0.4 L CH₄/g COD. Therefore, using methanogenesis of leachate prior to recirculation in bioreactor landfills will help to (1) control clog formation within leachate pipes and (2) produce an important additional source of energy on-site.     

Effects of silver and cerium dioxide micro- and nano-sized particles on Daphnia magna

Acute (96 h) and chronic (21 d) exposures of Daphnia magna neonates were carried out with nano- and micro-sized Ag and CeO(2) particles to assess the influence of both material and size of particles on mortality and moulting. Mortality rates for silver in the acute exposures were: AgNP, 56.7 ± 23.3% at 0.1 mg L(-1) and 100 ± 20% at 1 mg L(-1), and micro-Ag, 13.3 ± 6.7% at 0.1 mg L(-1) and 80 ± 20% at 1 mg L(-1). CeO(2) was not acutely toxic at concentrations up to 10 mg L(-1). Mortality for Ag over 21d at concentrations of up to 0.05 mg L(-1) was low, while mortality of 30% was observed for 0.001 mg L(-1) of nano-Ag. CeO(2), with the exception of the 10 mg L(-1) of nano-CeO(2) (100% mortality by day 7), was non-toxic. Inhibition of moulting and growth in the acute study occurred at toxic concentrations (Ag particles), and at 10 mg L(-1) of nano-CeO(2). The chronic study revealed reduced moulting at 0.001 mg L(-1) of nano-Ag and 0.01 and 0.05 mg L(-1) of both sizes of Ag, but there was no impact on D. magna size, and no effects of CeO(2). The toxicity of nano-CeO(2) may be attributed to reduced feeding and physical interference with the daphnids' carapace, resulting in reduced swimming ability. Our results suggest that Ag NPs in particular have the potential to be harmful to aquatic invertebrates after release into the environment, whereas CeO(2) particles appear to cause little adverse effects, and only at environmentally irrelevant concentrations.     

Evaluating the efficacy of adaptive management approaches: Is there a formula for success?

Within the field of natural-resources management, the application of adaptive management is appropriate for complex problems high in uncertainty. Adaptive management is becoming an increasingly popular management-decision tool within the scientific community and has developed into two primary schools of thought: the Resilience-Experimentalist School (with high emphasis on stakeholder involvement, resilience, and highly complex models) and the Decision-Theoretic School (which results in relatively simple models through emphasizing stakeholder involvement for identifying management objectives). Because of these differences, adaptive management plans implemented under each of these schools may yield varying levels of success. We evaluated peer-reviewed literature focused on incorporation of adaptive management to identify components of successful adaptive management plans. Our evaluation included adaptive management elements such as stakeholder involvement, definitions of management objectives and actions, use and complexity of predictive models, and the sequence in which these elements were applied. We also defined a scale of degrees of success to make comparisons between the two adaptive management schools of thought. Our results include the relationship between the adaptive management process documented in the reviewed literature and our defined continuum of successful outcomes. Our data suggest an increase in the number of published articles with substantive discussion of adaptive management from 2000 to 2009 at a mean rate of annual change of 0.92 (r2 = 0.56). Additionally, our examination of data for temporal patterns related to each school resulted in an increase in acknowledgement of the Decision-Theoretic School of thought at a mean annual rate of change of 0.02 (r2 = 0.6679) and a stable acknowledgement for the Resilience-Experimentalist School of thought (r2 = 0.0042; slope = 0.0013). Identifying the elements of successful adaptive management will be advantageous to natural-resources managers considering adaptive management as a decision tool.     

Volatilization and Metabolism of Pesticides Under Simulated Outdoor Conditions

The fate of 14C-labelled formulated parathion-methyl was investigated for 24 h after application to French beans in a laboratory chamber, where the air temperature and air humidity fluctuations as measured outdoors during a day in August 1993 could be simulated. The wind velocity directly above the plant stand and the radiation intensity could also be simulated with slight restrictions. Under these conditions, 65.9 % and 65.3 % of the A.I. applied volatilized and were directly determined in air samples in two experiments carried out under identical conditions. 28.9 % and 27.8% were determined after 24 h on the plants, only a part of this radioactivity still representing unchanged parathion methyl. The recovery of the radioactivity applied was 94.8 % and 93.1 %, respectively in the two experiments.     

Fishery Stability, Local Extinctions, and Shifts in Community Structure in Skates

Abstract: Skates are arguably the most vulnerable of exploited marine fishes. Their vulnerability is often assessed by examining fisheries catch trends, but these data are not generally recorded on a species basis except in France. Aggregated skate catch statistics tend to exhibit more stable trends than those of other elasmobranch fisheries. We tested whether such apparent stability in aggregated catch trends could mask population declines of individual species. We examined two time series of species-specific surveys of a relatively stable skate fishery in the northeast Atlantic. These surveys revealed the disappearance of two skate species, long-nose skate (   Dipturus oxyrhinchus ) and white skate (   Rostroraja alba ) and confirmed a previously documented decline of the common skate (   D. batis ). Of the remaining five skate species, the three larger ones have declined, whereas two smaller species have increased in abundance. The increase in abundance and biomass of the smaller species has resulted in the stability of the aggregated catch trends. Because there is significant dietary overlap among species, we suggest the increase in abundance of the smaller species may be due to competitive release as the larger species declined. A consequence of this kind of stability is that declining species cannot be detected without species-specific data, especially in taxa exhibiting competitive interactions. This may explain why previously documented disappearances of two species of skates went unnoticed for so long. The conservation of skates and other elasmobranchs requires species-specific monitoring and special attention to larger species.