Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Determination of ametryn in sugarcane and ametryn–atrazine herbicide formulations using spectrophotometric method

A sensitive spectrophotometric method has been developed for determination of ametryn in agricultural samples. The proposed method was based on reaction with pyridine and further coupling with sulfanilic acid to form a colored product. The absorbance was measured at 400 nm with a molar absorptivity of 2.1 × 10⁵ L mol⁻¹ cm⁻¹. The method shows a linear range from 0.2–20 μg mL⁻¹ with limit of detection and limit of quantification 0.16 and 0.54 μg mL⁻¹, respectively. The method has been successfully applied to the determination of ametryn in sugarcane juice and commercial formulations after separation of ametryn from triazine herbicides based on solvent extraction. Recovery values were found to be in the range of 96.0 ± 0.2% to 98.4 ± 0.1%.     

Accumulation of trace metals in the muscle and liver tissues of five fish species from the Persian Gulf

In this study, concentrations of 16 elements were quantified in muscles and livers of 141 fishes belonging to five commercially species. It was also our intention to evaluate potential risks to human health associated with seafood consumption. The grunt, flathead, greasy grouper, tiger-tooth croaker and silver pomfret fish species were obtained from Abadan, Deylam, Bushehr-Nirogah, Dayyer port, Lengeh port and Abbas port in Hormozgan, Bushehr and Khozesran provinces at the Iranian waters of the Persian Gulf. The contents of Al, As, Be, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mn, Mo, Ni, Sb, Tl, V and Zn in fish muscles and livers were determined by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP MS), after digestion in a CEM (Mars 5) microwave oven using nitric acid and hydrogen peroxide. Our results indicated that almost all metals were more accumulated in younger flathead, greasy grouper and tiger-tooth fishes. Contrary to the other fish species, grunt seems to stronger accumulating elements in the older fishes. Strong and positive correlations were observed in three or more of the fish species between V, Al, Fe, Tl, Co and Pb. The results confirmed that fish muscle and liver tissues appeared to be good bio-indicators for identification of coastal areas exposed to metallic contaminants. The results also showed that the element levels in the muscles of all fishes in our study were lower than the maximum allowable concentrations and pose no threat to public health, except for arsenic.     

Monitoring and validating the temporal dynamics of interday streamflow from two upland head micro-watersheds with different vegetative conditions during dry periods of the growing season in the Bohemian Massif,Czech Republic

At present, dynamic land use, climate change, and growing needs for fresh water are increasing the demand on the ecosystem effects of forest vegetation. Mountainous areas are at the forefront of scientific interest in European forest ecology and forest hydrology. Although uplands cover a significant area of the Czech Republic and other countries and are often covered with forest formations, they do not receive an appropriate amount of attention. Therefore, two experimental upland head micro-watersheds in the Bohemian Massif were selected for study because they display similar natural conditions, but different vegetative conditions (forest versus meadow). During the 2011 growing season, short-term streamflow measurements were carried out at the discharge profiles of both catchments and were evaluated in relation to climatic data (rainfall and temperature). The basic premise was that the streamflow in a forested catchment must exhibit different temporal dynamics compared to that in treeless areas and that these differences can be attributed to the effects of woody vegetation. These conclusions were drawn from measurements performed during dry periods lasting several days. A decreasing streamflow trend during the day part of the day (0900–1900 hours) was observed in both localities. The decrease reached approx. 44 % of the initial morning streamflow (0.24 dm³ s^?1 day^?1) in the treeless catchment and approx. 20 % (0.19 dm³ s^?1 day^?1) in the forested catchment. At night (1900–0900 hours), the streamflow in the forested catchment increased back to its initial level, whereas the streamflow in the treeless catchment stagnated or slowly decreased. We attribute these differences to the ecosystem effects of woody vegetation and its capacity to control water loss during the day. This type of vegetation can also function as a water source for the hydrographic network during the night.     

Distribution,fate and formation of non-extractable residues of a nonylphenol isomer in soil with special emphasis on soil derived organo-clay complexes

Anthropogenic contaminants like nonylphenols (NP) are added to soil, for instance if sewage-sludge is used as fertilizer in agriculture. A commercial mixture of NP consists of more than 20 isomers. For our study, we used one of the predominate isomers of NP mixtures, 4-(3,5-dimethylhept-3-yl)phenol, as a representative compound. The aim was to investigate the fate and distribution of the isomer within soil and soil derived organo-clay complexes. Therefore, ¹⁴C- and ¹³C-labeled NP was added to soil samples and incubated up to 180 days. Mineralization was measured and soil samples were fractionated into sand, silt and clay; the clay fraction was further separated in humic acids, fulvic acids and humin. The organo-clay complexes pre-incubated for 90 or 180 days were re-incubated with fresh soil for 180 days, to study the potential of re-mobilization of incorporated residues. The predominate incorporation sites of the nonylphenol isomer in soil were the organo-clay complexes. After 180 days of incubation, 22 % of the applied ¹⁴C was mineralized. The bioavailable, water extractable portion was low (9 % of applied ¹⁴C) and remained constant during the entire incubation period, which could be explained by an incorporation/release equilibrium. Separation of organo-clay complexes, after extraction with solvents to release weakly incorporated, bioaccessible portions, showed that non-extractable residues (NER) were preferentially located in the humic acid fraction, which was regarded as an effect of the chemical composition of this fraction. Generally, 27 % of applied ¹⁴C was incorporated into organo-clay complexes as NER, whereas 9 % of applied ¹⁴C was bioaccessible after 180 days of incubation. The re-mobilization experiments showed on the one hand, a decrease of the bioavailability of the nonylphenol residues due to stronger incorporation, when the pre-incubation period was increased from 90 to 180 days. On the other hand, a shift of these residues from the clay fraction to other soil fractions was observed, implying a dynamic behavior of incorporated residues, which may result in bioaccessibility of the NER of nonylphenol.     

Age before beauty? Relationships between fertilization success and age-dependent ornaments in barn swallows

When males become more ornamented and reproduce more successfully as they grow older, phenotypic correlations between ornament exaggeration and reproductive success can be confounded with age effects in cross-sectional studies, and thus say relatively little about sexual selection on these traits. This is exemplified here in a correlative study of male fertilization success in a large colony of American barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster). Previous studies of this species have indicated that two sexually dimorphic traits, tail length and ventral plumage coloration, are positively correlated with male fertilization success, and a mechanism of sexual selection by female choice has been invoked. However, these studies did not control for potential age-related variation in trait expression. Here, we show that male fertilization success was positively correlated with male tail length but not with plumage coloration. We also show that 1-year-old males had shorter tails and lower fertilization success than older males. This age effect accounted for much of the covariance between tail length and fertilization success. Still, there was a positive relationship between tail length and fertilization success among older males. But as this group consisted of males from different age classes, an age effect may be hidden in this relationship as well. Our data also revealed a longitudinal increase in both tail length and fertilization success for individual males. We argue that age-dependent ornament expression and reproductive performance in males complicate inferences about female preferences and sexual selection.     

A new approach to in-situ determination of roadside particle emission factors of individual vehicles under conventional driving conditions

A method for continuous on-road measurements of particle number emissions for both diesel- and petrol-fuelled vehicles is presented. The setup allows the determination of particle number emission factors on an individual vehicle basis by the simultaneous measurement of CO₂ and particle concentrations. As an alternative to previous measurements on the kerbside, the sample is taken directly in the street, with the advantage of sampling in-situ within the exhaust plumes of passing vehicles, allowing the separation of the individual high-concentration plumes. The method was tested in two experiments that were conducted in the Gothenburg area. In the first study, which was performed at an urban roadside, we were able to determine particle emission factors from individual vehicles in a common car fleet passing the measurement site. The obtained emission factors were of the same order of magnitude (between 1.4 × 10¹² and 1.8 × 10¹⁴ particles km^?1) as values published in the recent literature for light duty vehicles. An additional on-road experiment was conducted at a rural road with four light duty reference vehicles (three of them petrol-powered and one diesel-powered) at driving speeds of 50 and 70 km h^?1, realised with different engine speeds. The results of the traffic emission studies show that the method is applicable provided that instruments with an adequate dynamic range are used and that the traffic is not too dense. In addition, the variability in particle emissions for a specified driving condition was estimated.     

Investigating biodiversity trajectories using scenarios – Lessons from two contrasting agricultural landscapes

Agriculture is the major land use at a global scale. In addition to food production, multifunctionality of landscapes, including values and ecosystem services like biodiversity, recreation and culture, is now focus for management. This study explores how a scenario approach, involving different stakeholders, may help to improve landscape management for biodiversity conservation. Local farmers and executives at the County Administrative Board were invited to discuss rural development and conditions for farmland biodiversity in two Swedish landscapes. The potential biodiversity for three future land use scenarios for the two landscapes was discussed: nature conservation, outdoor recreation and energy production, and compared with current and historical landscapes in each region.Analyses of habitat areas, connectedness and landscape diversity suggested that the energy and recreation scenarios had a negative impact on farmland biodiversity, whereas the nature conservation scenario, the current and historically reconstructed landscapes had a higher potential for biodiversity. The farmers appreciated the nature conservation scenario, but also the energy production scenario and they highlighted the need of increased subsidies for management of biodiversity. The farmers in the high production area were less interested in nature quality per se. The executives had similar opinions as the farmers, but disagreed on the advantages with energy production, as this would be in conflict with the high biodiversity and recreational values. The local physical and socio-economical conditions differ between landscapes and potentially shaped the stakeholders emotional attachment to the local environment, their opinions and decisions on how to manage the land. We stress the importance of incorporating local knowledge, visions and regional prerequisites for different land uses in conservation, since site and landscape specific planning for biodiversity together with a flexible subsidy system are necessary to reach the conservation goals within EU.     

The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.