Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

Land cover changes as impacted by spatio-temporal rainfall variability along the Ethiopian Rift Valley escarpment

Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation (ρ _RFE1.0 = 0.85, p = 0.00, n = 126; ρ _RFE2.0 = 0.76, p = 0.00, n = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β = 0.23, p = 0.02, n = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.     

Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda,Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

Regional Environmental Change - Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem...     

Heavy metals in brick kiln located area using atomic absorption spectrophotometer: a case study from the city of Peshawar, Pakistan

Environmental pollution is one of the burning issues of the world. In developed countries, there are lot of awareness about the environment and the impact of various industries on their life and surroundings. A little has been done in this direction in developing countries. In Pakistan, a big problem is the rapid conglomeration of the brick kilns in the outskirts of nearly all the urban centers to cope with the rapid construction work in big cities. A huge amount of low-grade coal or rubber tires is used as fuel in a very non-scientific manner. The purpose of the present study was to look into the impact of the brick kilns on the different aspects of environmental pollution caused by these kilns. Concentration of metals Cu, Co, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cd, and Mn were measured on 36 soil samples collected from the area and the same number of plant samples in order to establish the distribution of heavy metals in the area and to determine the effect of this distribution on the surrounding atmosphere and the possible effects on human life.     

DDT residue in soil and water in and around abandoned DDT manufacturing factory

Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) belongs to one of the most hazardous groups of chemicals called persistent organic pollutants. Many organochlorine pesticides including p,p(')-DDT are long lasting due to their non-degradability can travel to distant places and being fat soluble can accumulate in animals and human bodies. Due to the persistent nature of p,p(')-DDT, its adverse environmental and health impacts, the present study was undertaken to examine the residual p,p(')-DDT in and around abandoned p,p(')-DDT manufacturing factory in Amman Gharh, Nowshera, NWFP. Samples of soil, sediments and water were collected in and around the factory area, nearby p,p(')-DDT stores, main factory drain leading to river Kabul and nearby villages. Standard procedures were used for the collection, transportation and storage of samples for analyses. Extraction of each sample for p,p(')-DDT analyses was carried out in triplicates using Soxhelt extraction. p,p(')-DDT contents in the samples were analyzed by capillary GC with electron capture detector. Most of the samples collected up to half kilometer distance from the site of the DDT factory were found contaminated. Further the level of p,p(')-DDT decreased with increasing depth from top to bottom and with distance from the site. The results indicate that there is no immediate threat to underground water reservoirs.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a one-off global survey of bivalves

During the Danish Galathea 3 expedition, bivalve samples were collected at the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Ghana, South Africa, Australia, Solomon Islands, New Zealand, Chile, US Virgin Islands, Boston, Newfoundland and Shetland Islands and analysed for organochlorines and PAHs. Concentration differences of up to three orders of magnitude were observed, with the highest concentrations at Boston harbour (SPCB 338 ng g(-1) dw, ΣSPAH 5966 ng g(-1) dw) and the Sydney estuary (ΣSPCB 282 ng g(-1) dw, SPAH 1453 ng g(-1) dw). Local impacts were also found for the Greenland capital Nuuk in terms of PCB and PAH levels, while other Greenland samples came closest to representing PAH background levels. Several locations had undetectable organochlorine levels, including Hobart and Chile, which had the lowest SPAH concentrations (<200 ng g(-1) dw). It was possible to group the stations according to their pyrogenic/petrogenic influence using Principal Component Analyses, and indications of petroleum sources were found at Nuuk.     

Occupational exposure to mould and microbial metabolites during onion sorting—insights into an overlooked workplace

Manual sorting of onions is known to be associated with a bioaerosol exposure. The study aimed to gain an initial indication as to what extent manual sorting of onions is also associated with mycotoxin exposure. Twelve representative samples of outer onion skins from different onion origins were sampled and analyzed with a multimycotoxin method comprising 40 mycotoxins using a single extraction step followed by liquid chromatography with electrospray ionization and triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. Six of the 12 samples were positive for mycotoxins. In those samples, deoxynivalenol, fumonisin B₁, and B₂ were observed in quantitatively detectable amounts of 3940 ng/g for fumonisin B₁ and in the range of 126–587 ng/g for deoxynivalenol and 55–554 ng/g for fumonisin B₂. Although the results point to a lower risk due to mycotoxins, the risk should not be completely neglected and has to be considered in the risk assessment.     

External drift kriging of NOx concentrations with dispersion model output in a reduced air quality monitoring network

In the mid nineteen eighties the Dutch NO_x air quality monitoring network was reduced from 73 to 32 rural and city background stations, leading to higher spatial uncertainties. In this study, several other sources of information are being used to help reduce uncertainties in parameter estimation and spatial mapping. For parameter estimation, we used Bayesian inference. For mapping, we used kriging with external drift (KED) including secondary information from a dispersion model. The methods were applied to atmospheric NO_x concentrations on rural and urban scales. We compared Bayesian estimation with restricted maximum likelihood estimation and KED with universal kriging. As a reference we also included ordinary least squares (OLS). Comparison of several parameter estimation and spatial interpolation methods was done by cross-validation. Bayesian analysis resulted in an error reduction of 10 to 20% as compared to restricted maximum likelihood, whereas KED resulted in an error reduction of 50% as compared to universal kriging. Where observations were sparse, the predictions were substantially improved by inclusion of the dispersion model output and by using available prior information. No major improvement was observed as compared to OLS, the cause presumably being that much good information is contained in the dispersion model output, so that no additional spatial residual random field is required to explain the data. In all, we conclude that reduction in the monitoring network could be compensated by modern geostatistical methods, and that a traditional simple statistical model is of an almost equal quality.