Improving the effectiveness of warnings by increasing the appropriateness of their information content: some hypotheses about human compliance

The ways that warnings are administered vary greatly. A warning may come as a message broadcast on the radio about severe weather, as a flashing light in the cockpit of an airplane, or as an audible smoke alarm. Typically, warnings provide an auditory or visual signal to assist in the detection of an anticipated stimulus. However, warnings tend to operate in an all or none mode: either the warning is present, or it is not. Consequently, the information they provide is limited. If warnings are provided too often, their information content becomes even lower and frequent false alarms render them ineffective because of the “cry-wolf” effect. On the other hand, if warnings are not administered frequently enough, they result in too many potentially costly misses. In this conceptual paper, it is argued that the effectiveness of warnings might be significantly improved if warnings are made more “intelligent” by providing information about the likelihood of the occurrence of the stimulus. Several representative cases are discussed and analyzed in order to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods.     

In-situ biological treatment of vinyl acetate-contaminated soil: An emergency response action

In-situ biological solid-phase (or land) treatment was cost-effectively used to remediate 1,500 cubic yards (1,100 m³) of contaminated soil within three months of field operation following spillage of an estimated 12,000 gallons (45,000 L) of vinyl acetate from a railroad tank car onto surface soil. The vinyl acetate rapidly hydrolyzed to acetate and acetaldehyde with concentrations ranging up to 22,000 and 3,000 mg/kg, respectively. Ethanol, a metabolic intermediate, was found to accumulate in soil to concentrations as high as 280 mg/kg. The estimate for excavation, transportation, and disposal of the contaminated soil as a special waste, and for backfilling of the excavated area, was $850,000. The cost for biological remediation of the contaminated soil was $400,000, which was less than half the cost of excavation. In-situ biological treatments have been used to readily remove contaminants, such as acrylonitrile, styrene, butylcellosolve, ethylacrylate, and n-butylacrylate, at other sites involving railroad incidents.     

An erosion-based land classification system for military installations

The universal soil loss equation (USLE) has been integrated with a geographic information system known as the geographical resources analysis support system (GRASS) to create a land classification system for use by military trainers and land managers to minimize the environmental impacts of military training activities. The USLE provides an estimate of current average annual sheet and rill erosion based upon factors representing climate, soil erodibility, topography, cover, and conservation support practices. The erosion estimate is compared to erosion tolerance values to produce an expression of the current erosion status. An index of inherent site erodibility is also achieved through manipulation of the USLE. Based on published soil surveys, satellite imagery, and ground-truth vegetation transects, data layers are created within GRASS for each of the component factors of the USLE. Appropriate mathematical operations are performed with the data layers, and color-coded maps are produced that represent the erosion status and erodibility index for each 50-m × 50-m area of soil surface. These maps aid military trainers and land managers in scheduling appropriate kinds and intensities of military training activities.     

Exploratory field trial of motorcycle autonomous emergency braking (MAEB): Considerations on the acceptability of unexpected automatic decelerations

Objective: Autonomous emergency braking (AEB) acts to slow down a vehicle when an unavoidable impending collision is detected. In addition to documented benefits when applied to passenger cars, AEB has also shown potential when applied to motorcycles (MAEB). However, the feasibility of MAEB as practically applied to motorcycles in the real world is not well understood.

Methods: In this study we performed a field trial involving 16 riders on a test motorcycle subjected to automatic decelerations, thus simulating MAEB activation. The tests were conducted along a rectilinear path at nominal speed of 40 km/h and with mean deceleration of 0.15 g (15% of full braking) deployed at random times. Riders were also exposed to one final undeclared brake activation with the aim of providing genuinely unexpected automatic braking events.

Results: Participants were consistently able to manage automatic decelerations of the vehicle with minor to moderate effort. Results of undeclared activations were consistent with those of standard runs.

Conclusions: This study demonstrated the feasibility of a moderate automatic deceleration in a scenario of motorcycle travelling in a straight path, supporting the notion that the application of AEB on motorcycles is practicable. Furthermore, the proposed field trial can be used as a reference for future regulation or consumer tests in order to address safety and acceptability of unexpected automatic decelerations on a motorcycle.     

Tracer studies to characterize the effects of roadside noise barriers on near-road pollutant dispersion under varying atmospheric stability conditions

A roadway toxics dispersion study was conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to document the effects on concentrations of roadway emissions behind a roadside sound barrier in various conditions of atmospheric stability. The homogeneous fetch of the INL, controlled emission source, lack of other manmade or natural flow obstructions, and absence of vehicle-generated turbulence reduced the ambiguities in interpretation of the data. Roadway emissions were simulated by the release of an atmospheric tracer (SF₆) from two 54 m long line sources, one for an experiment with a 90 m long noise barrier and one for a control experiment without a barrier. Simultaneous near-surface tracer concentration measurements were made with bag samplers on identical sampling grids downwind from the line sources. An array of six 3-d sonic anemometers was employed to measure the barrier-induced turbulence. Key findings of the study are: (1) the areal extent of higher concentrations and the absolute magnitudes of the concentrations both increased as atmospheric stability increased; (2) a concentration deficit developed in the wake zone of the barrier with respect to concentrations at the same relative locations on the control experiment at all atmospheric stabilities; (3) lateral dispersion was significantly greater on the barrier grid than the non-barrier grid; and (4) the barrier tended to trap high concentrations near the “roadway” (i.e. upwind of the barrier) in low wind speed conditions, especially in stable conditions.     

Role of Propagule Size in the Success of Incipient Colonies of the Invasive Argentine Ant

Abstract: Factors that contribute to the successful establishment of invasive species are often poorly understood. Propagule size is considered a key determinant of establishment success, but experimental tests of its importance are rare. We used experimental colonies of the invasive Argentine ant (   Linepithema humile ) that differed both in worker and queen number to test how these attributes influence the survivorship and growth of incipient colonies. All propagules without workers experienced queen mortality, in contrast to only 6% of propagules with workers. In small propagules (10–1,000 workers), brood production increased with worker number but not queen number. In contrast, per capita measures of colony growth decreased with worker number over these colony sizes. In larger propagules ( 1,000–11,000 workers), brood production also increased with increasing worker number, but per capita brood production appeared independent of colony size. Our results suggest that queens need workers to establish successfully but that propagules with as few as 10 workers can grow quickly. Given the requirements for propagule success in Argentine ants, it is not surprising how easily they spread via human commerce.     

Zonal management of arsenic contaminated ground water in Northwestern Bangladesh

This paper used ordinary kriging to spatially map arsenic contamination in shallow aquifers of Northwestern Bangladesh (total area  35,000 km²). The Northwestern region was selected because it represents a relatively safer source of large-scale and affordable water supply for the rest of Bangladesh currently faced with extensive arsenic contamination in drinking water (such as the Southern regions). Hence, the work appropriately explored sustainability issues by building upon a previously published study (Hossain et al., 2007; Water Resources Management, vol. 21: 1245–1261) where a more general nation-wide assessment afforded by kriging was identified. The arsenic database for reference comprised the nation-wide survey (of 3534 drinking wells) completed in 1999 by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in collaboration with the Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE) of Bangladesh. Randomly sampled networks of zones from this reference database were used to develop an empirical variogram and develop maps of zonal arsenic concentration for the Northwestern region. The remaining non-sampled zones from the reference database were used to assess the accuracy of the kriged maps. Two additional criteria were explored: (1) the ability of geostatistical interpolators such as kriging to extrapolate information on spatial structure of arsenic contamination beyond small-scale exploratory domains; (2) the impact of a priori knowledge of anisotropic variability on the effectiveness of geostatistically based management. On the average, the kriging method was found to have a 90% probability of successful prediction of safe zones according to the WHO safe limit of 10 ppb while for the Bangladesh safe limit of 50 ppb, the safe zone prediction probability was 97%. Compared to the previous study by Hossain et al. (2007) over the rest of the contaminated country side, the probability of successful detection of safe zones in the Northwest is observed to be about 25% higher. An a priori knowledge of anisotropy was found to have inconclusive impact on the effectiveness of kriging. It was, however, hypothesized that a preferential sampling strategy that honored anisotropy could be necessary to reach a more definitive conclusion in regards to this issue.     

Surface chemistry of a pine-oil cleaner and other terpene mixtures with ozone on vinyl flooring tiles

Indoor environments are dynamic reactors where consumer products (such as cleaning agents, deodorants, and air fresheners) emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that can subsequently interact with indoor oxidants such as ozone (O₃), hydroxyl radicals, and nitrate radicals. Typically, consumer products consist of mixtures of VOCs and semi-VOCs which can react in the gas-phase or on surfaces with these oxidants to generate a variety of oxygenated products. In this study, the reaction of a pine-oil cleaner (POC) with O₃ (100 ppb) on a urethane-coated vinyl flooring tile was investigated at 5% and 50% relative humidity. These results were compared to previous α-terpineol + O₃ reactions on glass and vinyl surfaces. Additionally, other terpene and terpene alcohol mixtures were formulated to understand the emission profiles as seen in the POC data. Results showed that the α-terpineol + O₃ reaction products were the prominent species that were also observed in the POC/O₃ surface experiments. Furthermore, α-terpineol + O₃ reactions generate the largest fraction of oxygenated products even in equal mixtures of other terpene alcohols. This finding suggests that the judicial choice of terpene alcohols for inclusion in product formulations may be useful in reducing oxidation product emissions.     

Current Status of Mathematical Models for Population Dynamics of Prymnesium parvum in a Texas Reservoir1

Grover, James P., Jason W. Baker, Daniel L. Roelke, and Bryan W. Brooks, 2010. Current Status of Mathematical Models for Population Dynamics of Prymnesium parvum in a Texas Reservoir. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(1):92-107. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00393.x Abstract: Blooms of the harmful alga Prymnesium parvum have apparently increased in frequency in inland waters of the United States, especially in western Texas. A suite of mathematical models was developed based on a chemostat (or continuously stirred tank reactor) framework, and calibrated with data from Lake Granbury, Texas. Inputs included data on flows, salinity, irradiance, temperature, zooplankton grazing, and nutrients. Parameterization incorporated recent laboratory studies relating the specific growth rate of P. parvum to such factors. Models differed in the number of algal populations competing with P. parvum, and whether competition occurred only by consumption of shared nutrients, or additionally through production of an allelopathic chemical by one of the populations, parameterized as cyanobacteria. Uncalibrated models did not reproduce the observed seasonal dynamics of P. parvum in Lake Granbury, which displayed a maximum population in late February during a prolonged bloom in cooler weather, and reduced abundance in summer. Sensitivity analyses suggested two modifications leading to predictions that better resembled observations. The first modification greatly reduces the optimal temperature for growth of P. parvum, an approach that disagrees with laboratory experiments indicating a strong potential for growth at temperatures above 20°C. The second modification increases the growth rate of P. parvum at all temperatures, in models including cyanobacterial allelopathy. Despite these adjustments, calibrated models did not faithfully simulate all features of the seasonal dynamics of P. parvum.