Global-scale vs. regional-scale scenario assumptions: implications for estimating future water withdrawals in the Elbe River basin

In this paper, we explore how scenarios of future water withdrawals in a river basin are influenced by scale-dependent quantifications of the driving forces for two global-scale storylines. Either global-scale information or region-specific information is used to do the quantifications. In addition, we analyze the impact of including or not some restricted regional-scale information in the employed water use model. To develop scenarios of water withdrawals in the German part of the Elbe River basin, we applied the modules for domestic, thermoelectric power and manufacturing water use of the global water model WaterGAP, using scale-dependent driving forces scenarios and other scale-dependent model input. In the global-scale quantitative interpretations of the storylines of the IPCC SRES scenarios A1 and B2, all major driving forces of water withdrawals in the basin—population, thermoelectric power production and industrial gross domestic product—show vigorous increases between 2000 and 2025, while from the regional perspective, smaller increases but mostly decreases appear to be plausible. These discrepancies are partly due to the fact that for the global-scale interpretations only the historic developments until 1990 were taken into account, and not until 2000 as in the regional case. The resulting scenarios of sectoral water withdrawals in 2025 differ strongly between the two scale-dependent interpretations of the storylines, with the global one leading to much higher absolute water withdrawals and much lower withdrawal decreases between 2000 and 2025. Therefore, for regional assessments of water withdrawals, we recommend to embed the scenario analysis in global-scale storylines by performing regional-scale quantifications of the global qualitative driving forces scenarios, based on a limited amount of region-specific information.     

Environmental risk assessment of phosphonates,used in domestic laundry and cleaning agents in The Netherlands

In the long-term cooperative project Voluntary Plan of Action (1990) between the Dutch Soap and Detergent Association (NVZ) and the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) environmental risk assessments of several main components of laundry cleaning formulations were completed. As a part of that project the environmental risk assessment of HEDP, ATMP, EDTMP and DTPMP phosphonates used in detergent applications has been carried out according to the EU Technical Guidance Document for Environmental Risk Assessment for New and Existing Chemicals. All PEC/PNEC ratios were well below 1. Results of this assessment based on the total industry volumes from 1995 and 1998 indicate that the environmental risk of these phosphonates is low in The Netherlands with properly functioning sewage treatment plants.     

Mapping the probability of exceeding critical thresholds for cadmium concentrations in soils in The Netherlands

The probability of exceeding critical thresholds of Cd concentrations in the soil was mapped at a national scale. The critical thresholds in soil were based on food quality criteria for Cd in crops or in organs of cattle (Bos taurus), and were calculated by inverting a regression model for the Cd concentration in the crop, with the Cd concentration in soil, soil organic matter (SOM) content, clay content, and pH as predictors. The probability of exceeding the critical threshold for Cd in soil per node of a 500- x 500-m grid was approximated by Monte Carlo simulation, using the estimated cumulative distribution functions (cdf) of SOM, clay, pH, and Cd as input. The cdfs were estimated by simple indicator kriging with local prior means. For SOM, clay, and pH, detailed maps of soil type and land use were used to define subregions with assumed constant local means of the indicators (a priori distributions). The cdfs were sampled by Latin hypercube sampling. We accounted for correlation between the actual and critical Cd concentrations in soil by drawing Cd values from cdfs conditional on SOM and clay. The estimated probability for grassland is negligible, even in areas with high Cd concentrations in soil, and for maize (Zea mays L.) land the probability is almost everywhere smaller than 5%. For arable soils, however, these probabilities commonly are larger than 5% when sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) or wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is taken as a reference crop, and locally exceed 50%.     

一种新型复合混凝剂处理餐饮废水的实验研究

介绍了一种利用自制混凝剂处理餐饮废水的方法。对处理工艺进行了优化,处理了100mL餐饮废水,投加5％的混凝剂1．5mL,搅拌强度90－120r/min,时间60－90s,沉淀时间20min。该方法工艺流程简单,运行成本低,不受温度限制,操作管理容易,CODCr去除率达90％以上,为使餐饮废水成为可再利用资源开辟了一条途径。     

Concentrations,Cumulative Exposure and Critical Levels of Ozone in Ireland

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone(O₃) and exceedance of critical levels to vegetationhave been investigated and mapped for Ireland. Hourlyozone concentration data (1995–1997) at 7 sevenmonitoring stations and the CORINE landcover database,supported by a Geographical Information System, wereused. AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40ppb) was calculated for daylight hours for each station,and mapped using surface interpolation. Average O₃concentrations vary from year to year, and were estimatedto be 28 ppb, 26 ppb and 24 ppb for 1995, 1996 and 1997respectively. Ozone concentrations show a large diurnalvariation, with a maximum in the afternoon and a minimumat night-time. The critical level for crops and (semi-)natural vegetation was exceeded in all years examined.The highest exceedance occurred in 1995, where thecritical level was exceeded for almost 35% of the mappedarea. Approximately 15% and 1% of the mapped area wasexposed to exceedance levels during 1996 and 1997respectively. The maximum cumulative exposures (AOT40)were approximately 5000, 3890 and 3230 ppbh in 1995, 1996and 1997 respectively. The critical level for forests wasnot exceeded during the period of investigation.     

Towards a grand deal on subsidies and climate change

Recent studies have identified public subsidies as a principal cause of unsustainable development. Worldwide, governments are spending up to $U950 billion a year on subsidies. Many of these public subsidies fail to serve their purpose and in fact, often turn out as policy failures as they further distort trade and cause environmental harm. The energy sector is among the most subsidized sectors in the world, receiving over $U240 billion per annum of public subsidies. This article highlights current energy subsidies and their implications. The article examines: (i) the global size and distribution of energy subsidies in industrialized and developing countries; (ii) the impact of these subsidies on the economy, equity and the environment and their role as barriers for sustainable development; (iii) the political economy behind public subsidies and the various political and institutional barriers and lock-in mechanisms that cause subsidies to become entrenched in economic and public structures; and (iv) proposals for effective subsidy reform in energy policies, suggesting a global strategy to eliminate energy subsidies. OECD governments are in a position to take the lead, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change presents an excellent opportunity of striking a political grand deal and linking the reform of energy subsidies to a meaningful participation of developing countries to the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, if sinks are to be included in the clean development mechanism (CDM), it is crucial to include the removal of forestry subsidies in the grand deal.     

Population feedback after successful invasion leads to ecological suicide in seasonal environments

For most consumer species, winter represents a period of harsh food conditions in addition to the physiological strain that results from the low ambient temperatures. In size-structured populations, larger-bodied individuals do better during winter as they have larger energy reserves to buffer starvation periods. In contrast, smaller-bodied individuals do better under growing conditions, as they have lower maintenance costs. We study how the interplay between size-dependent life-history processes and seasonal changes in temperature and food availability shape the long-term dynamics of a size-structured consumer population and its unstructured resource. We show that the size dependence of maintenance requirements translates into a minimum body size that is needed for surviving starvation when consumers can adapt only to a limited extent to the low food densities in winter. This size threshold can lead to population extinction because adult individuals suffer only a little during winter and hence produce large numbers of offspring. Due to population feedback on the resource and intense intra-cohort competition, newborn consumers then fail to reach the size threshold for survival. Under these conditions, small numbers of individuals can survive, increase in density, and build up a population, which will subsequently go extinct due to its feedback on the resource. High juvenile mortality may prevent this ecological suicide from occurring, as it releases resource competition among newborns and speeds up their growth. In size-structured populations, annual fluctuations in temperature and food availability may thus lead to a conflict between individual fitness and population persistence.     

Seed trait changes in dispersers' guts and consequences for germination and seedling growth

The effectiveness of a frugivore as a disperser of a plant is greatly determined by how fruits and seeds are handled in its mouth and its digestive tract. Although a number of studies have investigated the effect of avian ingestion on germination, we still know very little about the modifications to seeds during ingestion and the specific consequences on plant fitness. Here we investigate for the first time the different mechanisms by which germination patterns of seeds are modified following ingestion by frugivores. Specifically, we examine changes in seed mass, water content, permeability, seed coat thickness, texture, and resistance in two common Mediterranean fleshy-fruited plants, Phillyrea angustifolia and Myrtus communis, after ingestion by Eurasian Blackbirds, Turdus merula. We found a number of differences between the plant species: Phillyrea seeds lost mass, mainly due to water loss, and had thinner coats after gut passage, but Myrtus seeds did not. Seeds of both species showed increased permeability, while Myrtus seeds in particular became less resistant to breakage. No quantifiable changes in seed coat texture were detected in either species, although this trait was partly associated with differences in germination rate in Phillyrea. High intraspecific plant variation was found for most seed traits measured. Seed passage through birds' guts sped up germination in both species, especially in Myrtus. Increased permeability in seeds of both species following ingestion resulted in a higher germination rate. Moreover, seeds with thick coats (and in the case of Phillyrea, harder coats) germinated at a slower rate and produced seedlings that also grew more slowly, indicating a cost of coat thickness and/or hardness for seedling emergence. Results obtained here contribute to explaining the great heterogeneity in germination responses among and within plant species and the large variety of factors, both intrinsic and extrinsic to the plants, that influence such responses.     

UVR-induced photoinhibition of summer marine phytoplankton communities from Patagonia

During austral summer 2006, experiments were carried out to evaluate the effects of ultraviolet radiation (UVR, 280–400 nm) on carbon fixation of natural phytoplankton assemblages from Patagonia (Argentina). Surface water samples were collected (ca. 100 m offshore) at mid morning using an acid-cleaned (1 N HCl) dark container. The short-term impact of UVR (measured as radiocarbon incorporation) was immediately assessed by exposing samples to three artificial illumination treatments: PAR (400–700 nm), PAR + UV-A (320–700 nm), and PAR + UV-A + UV-B (280–700 nm). Pico-nanoplankton characterized the assemblages, and taxon-specific pigment fingerprinting combined with CHEMTAX and supplemented with microscopic observations showed varied proportions of diatoms, chlorophytes, and cyanobacteria throughout January–February 2006. Photosynthetic efficiency, as assessed through assimilation numbers, was high [between 4.4 and 10.4 μg C (μg chl-a)⁻¹ h⁻¹], and it was probably favored by the supply of inorganic nutrients from the Chubut River. UVR-induced photoinhibition appeared to be related to the taxonomic composition: in general, higher photoinhibition was observed when diatoms dominated, whereas this was lower when samples were dominated by chlorophytes. Our data suggest that xanthophyll pigments might have provided only limited protection in these already highlighted acclimated assemblages.     

ANAFORE: A stand-scale process-based forest model that includes wood tissue development and labile carbon storage in trees

A stand-scale forest model has been developed that dynamically simulates, besides carbon (C) and water (H₂O) fluxes, wood tissue development from physiological principles. The forest stand is described as consisting of trees of different size cohorts (for example, dominant, co-dominant and suppressed trees), either of the same or of different species (deciduous or coniferous). Half-hourly C and H₂O fluxes are modeled at the leaf, tree and stand level. In addition to total growth and yield, the model simulates the daily evolution of tracheid or vessel biomass and radius, parenchyma and branch development. From these data early and latewood biomass, wood tissue composition and density are calculated. Simulation of the labile C stored in the living tissues allows for simulation of trans-seasonal and trans-yearly effects, and improved simulations of long-term effects of environmental stresses on growth. A sensitivity analysis was performed to indicate the main parameters influencing simulated stem growth and wood quality at the tree and stand level. Case studies were performed for a temperate pine forest to illustrate the main model functioning and, more in particular, the simulation of the wood quality. The results indicate that the ANAFORE model is a useful tool for simultaneous analyses of wood quality development and forest ecosystem functioning.