A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Calculating pesticide sorption coefficients (Kd) using selected soil properties

Pesticide soil/solution distribution coefficients ( Kd values), commonly referred to as pesticide soil sorption values, are utilized in computer and decision aid models to predict soil mobility of the compounds. The values are specific for a given chemical in a given soil sample, normally taken from surface soil, a selected soil horizon, or at a specific soil depth, and are normally related to selected soil properties. Pesticide databases provide Kd values for each chemical, but the values vary widely depending on the soil sample on which the chemicals were tested. We have correlated Kd values reported in the literature with the reported soil properties for an assortment of pesticides in an attempt to improve the accuracy of a Kd value for a specific chemical in a soil with known soil properties. Mathematical equations were developed from regression equations for the related properties. Soil properties that were correlated included organic matter content, clay mineral content, and/or soil pH, depending on the chemical properties of the pesticide. Pesticide families for which Kd equations were developed for 57 pesticides include the following: Carboxy acid, amino sulfonyl acid, hydroxy acid, weakly basic compounds and nonionizable amide/anilide, carbamate, dinitroaniline, organochlorine, organophosphate, and phenylurea compounds. Mean Kd values for 32 additional pesticides, many of which had Kd values that were correlated with specific soil properties but for which no significant Kd equations could be developed are also included.     

Dimethylphthalate hydrolysis by specific microbial esterase

TWO BACTERIAL STRAINS: Arthrobacter sp. and Sphingomonas paucimobilis were isolated from soil by enrichment cultures using dimethylphthalate (DMP) or monomethylphthalate (MMP) as sole carbon source, respectively. DMP was rapidly transformed by an Arthrobacter sp. culture with formation of MMP and phthalic acid (PA) which is further degraded. This strain was unable to hydrolyse MMP. A mechanism of degradation of DMP was proposed with two ways: DMP-->PA and DMP-->MMP. The S. paucimobilis strain hydrolyses only MMP and a coculture of the two strains allowed a complete degradation of DMP.     

Relevance of coplanar PCBs for TEQ emission of fluidized bed incineration and impact of emission control devices

Five fluidized bed incinerators combusting municipal solid waste were assessed for the impact of coplanar PCBs on total TEQ emission. In 17 stack measurements, the coplanar PCBs contributed on average less than 3% to total TEQ with a maximum contribution of 7.5% to total TEQ in one measurement. Differences in the design of the flue gas cooling section did not show an effect on the impact of coplanar PCBs on total TEQ. The effect of emission control devices on the impact of coplanar PCBs on the total TEQ was studied in more detail at one incinerator. The relative contribution of PCBs to total TEQ increased along the flue gas line. This was caused by a slightly higher removal efficiency for TEQ relevant PCDDs/PCDFs compared to coplanar PCBs by the bag filters and a higher destruction efficiency for PCDDs/PCDFs compared to PCBs by the SCR catalyst. Additionally, the removal efficiencies of the emission control devices (bag filters and catalyst) for other chlorinated aromatic compounds which have been proposed as TEQ indicator compounds (polychlorinated benzenes and polychlorinated phenols) were compared with those for PCDDs/PCDFs and coplanar PCBs. Removal efficiencies for polychlorinated benzenes or polychlorinated phenols considerably differed from those of PCDD/PCDF and coplanar PCBs. Implications for TEQ assessments using indicator compounds as proposed in the literature are discussed.     

Historical record of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in Swiss lake sediments

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) were found in annually laminated sediments from Lakes Zurich, Baldegg, and Lugano in Switzerland. Octachlorodibenzo-p-diox in (OCDD) predominated, averaging approximately 1.3 ppb. The congener distribution indicated that combustion was the source of PCDD and PCDF in these sediments. In these dated sediment cores, we found that PCDD and PCDF were absent from the sediments before about 1945, but increased thereafter.     

Sublethal toxicity of two wastewater treatment polymers to lake trout fry (Salvelinus namaycush)

Lake trout fry (Salvelinus namaycush) were exposed in laboratory experiments to two wastewater treatment polymers, one anionic (MagnaFloc 156) and one cationic (MagnaFloc 368; Ciba Speciality Chemical), to determine if these chemicals which are used and discharged by mining operations in Canada's North pose a significant hazard to juvenile fishes. The cationic polymer was substantially more toxic to lake trout fry than the anionic polymer, with 96-h LC50 estimates of 2.08 and >600 mg/l, respectively. Separate 30-d exposure experiments yielded no observed and lowest observed effect concentrations, respectively, of 0.25 and 0.5mg/l for MagnaFloc 368, and 75 and 150 mg/l for MagnaFloc 156. In both cases, behavioural responses, especially startle response, were the most sensitive test endpoints. Histopathological assessment revealed that gill pathology appeared within a few days of exposure to both polymers, apparently as a result of localized hypoxia. Acute (4 d) effects included cloudy swelling of epithelial cells, increased gill vascularization, and thickening and shortening of the gill lamella. Chronic (30 d) polymer exposure produced only slightly greater pathological effects than acute exposure, with comparable responses observed only at >1.0mg/l MagnaFloc 368 and 150 mg/l MagnaFloc 156, suggesting that the fish displayed some level of both behavioural and physiological adaptation to the respiratory stress imposed by the two polymers.     

Environmental impact assessment of salmonid feeds using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

Understanding the environmental burdens associated with aquafeeds is a critical component for assessing and improving the environmental performance of aquaculture. The aim of the study was to assess the environmental impacts associated with feeds for rainbow trout production in France, using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The stages assessed are: the extraction of the raw materials, the production and transformation of the primary ingredients used, the manufacturing of the feeds, the use of the feeds at the farm, transport at all stages, and the production and use of energy resources. The assessment revealed that the use of fishery resources (such as biotic resource use) and nutrient emissions at the farm (such as eutrophication potential) contribute most to the potential environmental impacts of salmonid aquafeeds. Improvements in feed composition and management practices seem to be the best ways for improving the environmental profile of aquafeeds.     

Ozone pollution and ozone biomonitoring in European cities. Part I: Ozone concentrations and cumulative exposure indices at urban and suburban sites

In the frame of a European research project on air quality in urban agglomerations, data on ozone concentrations from 23 automated urban and suburban monitoring stations in 11 cities from seven countries were analysed and evaluated. Daily and summer mean and maximum concentrations were computed based on hourly mean values, and cumulative ozone exposure indices (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40), AOT20) were calculated. The diurnal profiles showed a characteristic pattern in most city centres, with minimum values in the early morning hours, a strong rise during the morning, peak concentrations in the afternoon, and a decline during the night. The widest amplitudes between minimum and maximum values were found in central and southern European cities such as Düsseldorf, Verona, Klagenfurt, Lyon or Barcelona. In the northern European cities of Edinburgh and Copenhagen, by contrast, maximum values were lower and diurnal variation was much smaller. Based on ozone concentrations as well as on cumulative exposure indices, a clear north–south gradient in ozone pollution, with increasing levels from northern and northwestern sites to central and southern European sites, was observed. Only the Spanish cities did not fit this pattern; there, ozone levels were again lower than in central European cities, probably due to the direct influence of strong car traffic emissions. In general, ozone concentrations and cumulative exposure were significantly higher at suburban sites than at urban and traffic-exposed sites. When applying the newly established European Union (EU) Directive on ozone pollution in ambient air, it was demonstrated that the target value for the protection of human health was regularly surpassed at urban as well as suburban sites, particularly in cities in Austria, France, northern Italy and southern Germany. European target values and long-term objectives for the protection of vegetation expressed as AOT40 were also exceeded at many monitoring sites.     

Effect of sequencing batch reactor operation on presence and concentration of tetracycline-resistant organisms.

The effect of sequencing batch reactor operation on presence and concentration of tetracycline-resistant organisms was studied as a function of organic loading rate (OLR) and solids retention time (SRT), with and without supplemented influent tetracycline. These effects were evaluated using bacterial counts, bacterial production, system growth rate, and percent resistance. These evaluation parameters were applied to both intermediate resistant and resistant heterotrophs, enterics, and lactose fermenters. Tetracycline intermediate resistant and resistant bacteria are defined as the survival of colonies on agar with 5 and 20 mg/L tetracycline, respectively. Based on these studies, increases in influent tetracycline concentration and OLR resulted in amplification of tetracycline resistance. Decreases in SRT also resulted in amplification of tetracycline resistance.