Effect of outdoor temperature, heat primes and anchoring on belief in global warming

It is generally acknowledged that global warming is occurring, yet estimates of future climate change vary widely. Given this uncertainty, when asked about climate change, it is likely that people’s judgments may be affected by heuristics and accessible schemas. Three studies evaluated this proposition. Study 1 revealed a significant positive correlation between the outdoor temperature and beliefs in global warming. Study 2 showed that people were more likely to believe in global warming when they had first been primed with heat-related cognitions. Study 3 demonstrated that people were more likely to believe in global warming and more willing to pay to reduce global warming when they had first been exposed to a high vs. a low anchor for future increases in temperature. Together, results reveal that beliefs about global warming (and willingness to take actions to reduce global warming) are influenced by heuristics and accessible schemas. Several practical implications are discussed.     

Urban tracer dispersion experiments during the second DAPPLE field campaign in London 2004

As part of the DAPPLE programme two large scale urban tracer experiments using multiple simultaneous releases of cyclic perfluoroalkanes from fixed location point sources was performed. The receptor concentrations along with relevant meteorological parameters measured are compared with a three screening dispersion models in order to best predict the decay of pollution sources with respect to distance. It is shown here that the simple dispersion models tested here can provide a reasonable upper bound estimate of the maximum concentrations measured with an empirical model derived from field observations and wind tunnel studies providing the best estimate. An indoor receptor was also used to assess indoor concentrations and their pertinence to commonly used evacuation procedures.     

Partitioning of dioxin and dibenzofuran congeners between plasma and cell fractions of blood from 10 adult male patients

We previously characterized levels of dioxin and dibenzofuran congeners in adipose tissue and plasma fraction of blood collected from 20 adult males, using paired speciments. It has been found that the 2,3,7,8-TCDD level reported on a lipid basis was similar, although not identical, in plasma lipid and in adipose tissue lipid from the same patients, however, higher levels of the more chlorinated dioxins and dibenzofurans existed in plasma lipid as compared to adipose tissue lipid. This study reports measurements from ten individuals' blood cell fraction and compares this to the plasms fraction and to adipose tissue lipid. In all cases where readily detectable amounts of PCDD/Fs were found, a minimum of 85% was in the plasma fraction and less than 15% in the cellular component. Congeners varied in percentage for each component.     

Toxicity of methyl tert-butyl ether to marine organisms: ambient water quality criteria calculation

In response to increasing concerns over the detection of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) in groundwater and surface water and its potential effects in aquatic ecosystems, industry and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) began to collaborate in 1997 to develop aquatic toxicity databases sufficient to derive ambient water quality criteria for MTBE consistent with USEPA requirements. Acute toxicity data for seven marine species, chronic toxicity data for an invertebrate, and plant toxicity data were developed to complete the saltwater database. The species tested were Cyprinodon variegatus, Gasterosteus aculeatus, Callinectes sapidus, Mytilus galloprovincialis, Palaemonetes pugio, Rhepoxynius abronius, Americamysis bahia, and Skeletonema costatum. The toxicity tests were conducted in accordance with USEPA and American Society for Testing and Materials testing procedures and Good Laboratory Practice guidelines. Data developed from this study were consistent with existing data and showed that MTBE has low acute and chronic toxicity to the marine species tested. Based upon measured MTBE concentrations, acute effects were found to range from 166 mg MTBE/l for the grass shrimp to 1950 mg MTBE/l for marine mussel. The no-observed effect concentration for the reproduction and growth of mysids was 26 mg MTBE/l during the life cycle test. The toxicity of MTBE to saltwater organisms is comparable to its toxicity to the freshwater species tested. Reported MTBE concentrations in coastal waters are several orders of magnitude lower than concentrations observed to cause effects in marine organisms.     

Analysis of running child pedestrians impacted by a vehicle using rigid-body models and optimization techniques

Lack of information from vehicle-to-child pedestrian impacts provides considerable challenges when developing vehicle countermeasures for the pediatric population. Crash reconstructions of real-world incidents provide useful information about the vehicle damage and injury outcome but do not permit definitive and quantitative measures of the impact severity given the high level of uncertainty in the initial conditions of the pedestrian and the vehicle prior the impact. This paper develops an advanced methodology for reconstructing child pedestrian–vehicle impacts that combines the crash data with multi-body simulations and optimization techniques for identifying the pedestrian posture and vehicle speed prior to impact. For the child pedestrian posture, a continuous sequence of the running gait was developed based on the literature data and simulations. Using vehicle damage information from an actual child pedestrian crash, an objective function was developed that minimized the difference between vehicle and pedestrian contact points for the simulated child postures, pedestrian, and vehicle speeds. Simulated annealing and genetic optimization algorithms were used to identify sets of potential solutions for the pedestrian and vehicle initial conditions. Local minimums were observed for several response surfaces of the objective function which shows the non-convex nature of the crash reconstruction optimization problem with the chosen objective function. Based on the results of the real-world reconstruction, this study indicates that numerical simulations coupled with heuristic optimization algorithms can be used to reconstruct child pedestrian and vehicle pre-impact conditions.     

Patient demands,lack of reciprocity,and burnout: a five‐year longitudinal study among general practitioners

This study among a sample of 207 general practitioners (GPs) uses a five‐year longitudinal design to test a process model of burnout. On the basis of social exchange and equity theory, it is hypothesized and found that demanding patient contacts produce a lack of reciprocity in the GP–patient relationship, which, in turn, depletes GPs' emotional resources and initiates the burnout syndrome. More specifically, structural equation analyses confirmed that—both at T1 and T2—lack of reciprocity mediates the impact of patient demands on emotional exhaustion. Emotional exhaustion, in turn, evokes negative attitudes toward patients (depersonalization), and toward oneself in relation to the job (reduced personal accomplishment). Moreover, this process model of burnout was confirmed at T2, even after controlling for T1‐scores on each of the model components. Finally, T1 depersonalization predicted the intensity and frequency of T2 patient demands, after controlling for T1 patient demands. This major finding suggests that GPs who attempt to gain emotional distance from their patients as a way of coping with their exhaustion, evoke demanding and threatening patient behaviors themselves. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Computational investigation of the effects of knee airbag design on the interaction with occupant lower extremity in frontal and oblique impacts

Objective: The lower extremity of the occupant represents the most frequently injured body region in motor vehicle crashes. Knee airbags (KABs) have been implemented as a potential countermeasure to reduce lower extremity injuries. Despite the increasing prevalence of KABs in vehicles, the biomechanical interaction of the human lower extremity with the KAB has not been well characterized. This study uses computational models of the human body and KABs to explore how KAB design may influence the impact response of the occupant's lower extremities.

Methods: The analysis was conducted using a 50th percentile male occupant human body model with deployed KABs in a simplified vehicle interior. The 2 common KAB design types, bottom-deploy KAB (BKAB) and rear-deploy KAB (RKAB), were both included. A state-of-the-art airbag modeling technique, the corpuscular particle method, was adopted to represent the deployment dynamics of the unfolding airbags. Validation of the environment model was performed based on previously reported test results. The kinematic responses of the occupant lower extremities were compared under both KAB designs, 2 seating configurations (in-position and out-of-position), and 3 loading conditions (static, frontal, and oblique impacts). A linear statistical model was used to assess factor significance considering the impact responses of the occupant lower extremities.

Results: The presence of a KAB had a significant influence on the lower extremity kinematics compared to no KAB (P <.05) by providing early restraint and distributing contact force on the legs during airbag deployment. For in-position occupants, the KAB generally tended to decrease tibia loadings. The RKAB led to greater lateral motion of the legs compared to the BKAB, resulting in higher lateral displacement at the knee joint and abduction angle change (51.2 ± 21.7 mm and 15° ± 6.0°) over the dynamic loading conditions. Change in the seating position led to a significant difference in occupant kinematic and kinetic parameters (P <.05). For the out-of-position (forward-seated) occupant, the earlier contact between the lower extremity and the deploying KAB resulted in 28.4° ± 5.8° greater abduction, regardless of crash scenarios. Both KAB types reduced the axial force in the femur relative to no KAB. Overall, the out-of-position occupant sustained a raised axial force and bending moment of the tibia by 0.8 ± 0.2 kN and 21.1 ± 8.7 Nm regardless of restraint use.

Conclusions: The current study provided a preliminary computational examination on KAB designs based on a limited set of configurations in an idealized vehicle interior. Results suggested that the BKAB tended to provide more coverage and less leg abduction compared to the RKAB in oblique impact and/or the selected out-of-position scenario. An out-of-position occupant was associated with larger abduction and lower extremity loads over all occupant configurations. Further investigations are recommended to obtain a full understanding of the KAB performance in a more realistic vehicle environment.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources

Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.     

生态时代消费问题的中国方案——读《自然之境:“消费—生态”悖论的伦理探究》

<正>建设生态文明,必须在节约能源资源和保护生态环境方面形成相应的产业结构、增长方式、消费模式。消费是人的本质的表现和确认,也是人的本质不断升华、不断发展的重要条件。此前全球金融危机的一个深刻结论是,传统消费模式是一条资源环境难以支撑的负重之路。因此,转变经济发展方式和消费方式成为当下生态文明建设的重要环节。曾建平教授所著的《自然之境:消费—生态悖论的伦理探究》(中国人民大学出版社2018年