Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources

Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.     

Radon emissions from natural gas power plants at The Pennsylvania State University

Burning natural gas in power plants may emit radon (²²²Rn) into the atmosphere. On the University Park campus of The Pennsylvania State University, atmospheric radon enhancements were measured and modeled in the vicinity of their two power plants. The three-part study first involved measuring ambient outdoor radon concentrations from August 2014 through January 2015 at four sites upwind and downwind of the power plants at distances ranging from 80 m to 310 m. For each plant, one site served as a background site, while three other sites measured radon concentration enhancements downwind. Second, the radon content of natural gas flowing into the power plant was measured, and third, a plume dispersion model was used to predict the radon concentrations downwind of the power plants. These predictions are compared to the measured downwind enhancements in radon to determine whether the observed radon concentration enhancements could be attributed to the power plants’ emissions. Atmospheric radon concentrations were consistently low as compared to the EPA action level of 148 Bq m^?3, averaging 34.5 ± 2.7 Bq m^?3 around the East Campus Steam Plant (ECSP) and 31.6 ± 2.7 Bq m^?3 around the West Campus Steam Plant (WCSP). Significant concentrations of radon, ranging from 516 to 1,240 Bq m^?3, were detected in the natural gas. The measured enhancements downwind of the ECSP averaged 6.2 Bq m^?3 compared to modeled enhancements of 0.08 Bq m^?3. Measured enhancements around the WCSP averaged ?0.2 Bq m^?3 compared to the modeled enhancements of 0.05 Bq m^?3, which were not significant compared to observational error. The comparison of the measured to modeled downwind radon enhancements shows no correlation over time. The measurements of radon levels in the vicinity of the power plants appear to be unaffected by the emissions from the power plants.

Implications: Radon measurements at sites surrounding power plants that utilize natural gas did not indicate that the radon concentrations originated from the plants’ emissions. There were elevated radon concentrations in the natural gas supply flowing into the power plants, but combustion dilution puts the concentration below EPA action levels coming out of the stack, so no hazardous levels were expected downwind. Power plant combustion of natural gas is not likely to pose a radiation health hazard unless very different gas radon concentrations or combustion dilution ratios are encountered.     

An evaluation of selenium concentrations in water, sediment, invertebrates, and fish from the Solomon River Basin

The Solomon River Basin is located in north-central Kansas in an area underlain by marine geologic shales. Selenium is an indigenous constituent of these shales and is readily leached into the surrounding groundwater. Portions of the Basin are irrigated primarily through the pumping of selenium-contaminated groundwater from wells onto fields in agricultural production. Water, sediment, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected from various sites in the Basin in 1998 and analyzed for selenium. Selenium concentrations were analyzed spatially and temporally and compared to reported selenium toxic effect thresholds for specific ecosystem components: water, sediments, food-chain organisms, and wholebody fish. A selenium aquatic hazard assessment for the Basin was determined based on protocol established by Lemly. Throughout the Basin, water, macroinvertebrate, and whole fish samples exceeded levels suspected of causing reproductive impairment in fish. Population structures of several fish species implied that successful reproduction was occurring; however, the influence of immigration of fish from low-selenium habitats could not be discounted. Site-specific fish reproduction studies are needed to determine the true impact of selenium on fishery resources in the Basin. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Ecology of subtropical hermit crabs in S.W. Madagascar: cluster structure and function

The Madagascar coast (both) has a higher density and diversity of hermit crabs than is known from any other locality in the western Indian Ocean. Of the 20 species occurring at Anakao (S.W. Madagascar), 11 aggregated into clusters, including all but one of the species above the subtidal zone. The mean number of hermit crabs and species in clusters varied with several spatial parameters and time. Over 80% of the community clustered in certain habitats in particular tidal zones, whilst as low as 3% clustered in others. The highest intensity of clustering with shore zone was coincident with peak numbers of hermit crabs. The initiation and duration of clusters of hermit crabs above the eulittoral was driven by circadian rhythms, whilst those in the eulittoral were governed by tidal state. Clusters above and below the eulittoral were longer in duration, and those in the subtidal were more temporally variable than those above it. Certain pairs of species showed positive correlations of occurrence and (more rarely) of abundance, and all the correlations (of occurrence) of one, Clibanarius eurysternus, were negative. Positive correlations of occurrence were related to the degree of shell-use commonality between species pairs. Eulittoral species clustered with other individuals of approximately similar size and exchanged shells upon cluster disintegration. There was evidence of a dehydration-reduction function to shell clustering in addition to shell-exchange facilitation. The highly variable species-specific strategies of clustering may be important in alleviating both intra- and interspecific competition in assemblages of similar and highly abundant species.     

Evaluation of geometrically personalized THUMS pedestrian model response against sedan–pedestrian PMHS impact test data

Objective: Evaluating the biofidelity of pedestrian finite element models (PFEM) using postmortem human subjects (PMHS) is a challenge because differences in anthropometry between PMHS and PFEM could limit a model's capability to accurately capture cadaveric responses. Geometrical personalization via morphing can modify the PFEM geometry to match the specific PMHS anthropometry, which could alleviate this issue. In this study, the Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS) PFEM (Ver 4.01) was compared to the cadaveric response in vehicle–pedestrian impacts using geometrically personalized models.

Methods: The AM50 THUMS PFEM was used as the baseline model, and 2 morphed PFEM were created to the anthropometric specifications of 2 obese PMHS used in a previous pedestrian impact study with a mid-size sedan. The same measurements as those obtained during the PMHS tests were calculated from the simulations (kinematics, accelerations, strains), and biofidelity metrics based on signals correlation (correlation and analysis, CORA) were established to compare the response of the models to the experiments. Injury outcomes were predicted deterministically (through strain-based threshold) and probabilistically (with injury risk functions) and compared with the injuries reported in the necropsy.

Results: The baseline model could not accurately capture all aspects of the PMHS kinematics, strain, and injury risks, whereas the morphed models reproduced biofidelic response in terms of trajectory (CORA score = 0.927 ± 0.092), velocities (0.975 ± 0.027), accelerations (0.862 ± 0.072), and strains (0.707 ± 0.143). The personalized THUMS models also generally predicted injuries consistent with those identified during posttest autopsy.

Conclusions: The study highlights the need to control for pedestrian anthropometry when validating pedestrian human body models against PMHS data. The information provided in the current study could be useful for improving model biofidelity for vehicle–pedestrian impact scenarios.     

Travis Air Force Base: A greener cleanups case study

Travis Air Force Base, California, has accelerated the pace of remediation while reducing long‐term costs and cutting greenhouse gas production. This has been achieved through optimizing existing systems and processes, adopting greener cleanups best management practices, and testing and implementing innovative “green” technologies. By optimizing and replacing existing systems that used energy‐intensive infrastructure, and by promoting the use of innovative in situ technologies, the US Air Force (Air Force) led team comprised of the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the US Army Corps of Engineers, the performance‐based contractor CH2M, and the regulatory agencies consisting of the US Environmental Protection Agency, the California Water Board, and the California Department of Toxic Substances Control, has reduced annual system operation and maintenance costs by over $200,000 per year, while reducing annual carbon dioxide production by approximately 930 tons per year. As a result of these actions, chlorinated solvent source areas have been reduced by over 99 percent in some cases, and the predicted cleanup time frame for multiple sites has been reduced by several decades. This article provides a case study for implementation of cost‐effective greener cleanup actions, and summarizes the approach taken by the Air Force led team to complete the greener cleanups self‐declaration process consistent with the ASTM International's E‐2893 Standard Guide for Greener Cleanups.     

How to Constrain Multi‐Objective Calibrations of the SWAT Model Using Water Balance Components

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. We propose an evaluation framework that considers both discharge and water balance components as evaluation criteria for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, we integrated average annual values of surface runoff, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the model evaluation procedure to constrain the selection of good model runs for the Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia, United States. For evaluating water balance and discharge dynamics, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) were used. In addition, the ratio of root mean square error and standard deviation of measured data (RSR) was calculated for individual segments of the flow duration curve to identify the best model runs in terms of discharge magnitude. Our results indicate that good statistics for discharge do not guarantee realistic simulations of individual water balance components. Therefore, we recommend constraining the ranges of water balance components to achieve a more realistic simulation of the entire hydrological system, even if tradeoffs between good statistics for discharge simulations and reasonable amounts of the water balance components are unavoidable. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Implications of Conceptual Channel Representation on SWAT Streamflow and Sediment Modeling

Hydrologic modeling outputs are influenced by how a watershed system is represented. Channel routing is a typical example of the mathematical conceptualization of watershed landscape and processes in hydrologic modeling. We investigated the sensitivity of accuracy, equifinality, and uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling to channel dimensions to demonstrate how a conceptual representation of a watershed system affects streamflow and sediment modeling. Results showed the amount of uncertainty and equifinality strongly responded to channel dimensions. On the other hand, the model performance did not significantly vary with the changes in the channel representation due to the degree of freedom allowed by the conceptual nature of hydrologic modeling in the parameter calibration. Such findings demonstrated good modeling performance statistics do not necessarily mean small output uncertainty, and partial improvements in the watershed representation may neither increase modeling accuracy nor reduce uncertainty. We also showed the equifinality and uncertainty of hydrologic modeling are case‐dependent rather than specific to models or regions, suggesting great caution should be used when attempting to transfer uncertainty analysis results to other modeling studies, especially for ungauged watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Evaluation of Existing and Modified Wetland Equations in the SWAT Model

The ability to accurately simulate flow and nutrient removal in treatment wetlands within an agricultural, watershed‐scale model is needed to develop effective plans for meeting nutrient reduction goals associated with protection of drinking water supplies and reduction of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. The objectives of this study were to incorporate new equations for wetland hydrology and nutrient removal in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), compare model performance using original and improved equations, and evaluate the ramifications of errors in watershed and tile drain simulation on prediction of NO₃‐N dynamics in wetlands. The modified equations produced Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.88 to 0.99 for daily NO₃‐N load predictions, and percent bias values generally less than 6%. However, statistical improvement over the original equations was marginal and both old and new equations provided accurate simulations. The new equations reduce the model's dependence on detailed monitoring data and hydrologic calibration. Additionally, the modified equations increase SWAT's versatility by incorporating a weir equation and an irreducible nutrient concentration and temperature coefficient. Model improvements enhance the utility of SWAT for simulating flow and nutrients in wetlands and other impoundments, although performance is limited by the accuracy of inflow and NO₃‐N predictions from the contributing watershed. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Influence of biochar on nitrogen fractions in a coastal plain soil

Interest in the use of biochar from pyrolysis of biomass to sequester C and improve soil productivity has increased; however, variability in physical and chemical characteristics raises concerns about effects on soil processes. Of particular concern is the effect of biochar on soil N dynamics. The effect of biochar on N dynamics was evaluated in a Norfolk loamy sand with and without NHNO. High-temperature (HT) (≥500°C) and low-temperature (LT) (≤400°C) biochars from peanut hull ( L.), pecan shell ( Wangenh. K. Koch), poultry litter (), and switchgrass ( L.) and a fast pyrolysis hardwood biochar (450-600°C) were evaluated. Changes in inorganic, mineralizable, resistant, and recalcitrant N fractions were determined after a 127-d incubation that included four leaching events. After 127 d, little evidence of increased inorganic N retention was found for any biochar treatments. The mineralizable N fraction did not increase, indicating that biochar addition did not stimulate microbial biomass. Decreases in the resistant N fraction were associated with the high pH and high ash biochars. Unidentified losses of N were observed with HT pecan shell, HT peanut hull, and HT and LT poultry litter biochars that had high pH and ash contents. Volatilization of N as NH in the presence of these biochars was confirmed in a separate short-term laboratory experiment. The observed responses to different biochars illustrate the need to characterize biochar quality and match it to soil type and land use.