Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

Distribution of Organochlorine Pesticides in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand

Water samples from the Chao Phraya River, the main river in Thailand were collected and analyzed during 1988–1994. Organochlorine pesticides such as HCHs, DDTs, aldrin, dieldrin and chlordanes were determined. Aldrin and dieldrin had high frequencies of occurrence in water samples. The concentration median of the pesticides was approximately one order of magnitude higher than those of total HCHs and DDTs. Levels of aldrin were relatively high in the upstream while levels of DDTs were high in the urban area of Bangkok during 1989–1990. p,p-DDE levels were relatively higher in 1992. No clear trends in the levels of pesticides were observed.     

CADMIUM ACCUMULATION AND TOXICITY IN SUBMERGED PLANT HYDRILLA VERTICILLATA (l.f.) ROYLE

Cadmium accumulation and its toxicity in relation tochlorophyll, protein, cysteine contents and in vivo nitrate reductaseactivity were studied under controlled conditions in Hydrillaverticillata, a submerged commonly occurring macrophyte. Plants weresubjected to six different concentrations of Cd ranging from 1.0 to 25.0 µM for 24, 48, 72 and 168 h. Tissue Cd concentration was maximum (13.71 µmoles/g dw) at 25 µM background concentration. At this concentration, a decrease of approximately 79 and 72% was found in chlorophyll and protein content. In vivo nitrate reductase activity was stimulated at 1.0 µM; however, the activity gradually declined beyond this concentration. Exposure to various cadmium concentrations resulted in an increase in cysteine content of the plant.     

Investigating phosphorus limitation in a fixed bed filter with phosphorus and nitrogen profile measurements

In 2000, the European Union adopted the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) (European Commission, 2000). The WFD focuses on increasingly stringent nutrient standards including ultra low nitrogen (< 2.2 mg N-total/L) and phosphorus concentrations (< 0.15 mg total phosphorus/L) in receiving surface waters and in relevant point sources like wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. Expansion of WWTPs with advanced post-treatment processes, like effluent filtration, is widely proposed to meet possible future effluent discharge standards. When combining biological nitrate-nitrogen and chemical phosphorus removal in one filter, phosphorus limitation in the denitrifying process may occur. This study investigated where in the filter bed and under which conditions phosphorus limitation occurs. Profile measurements for nitrate, nitrite, and orthophosphorus (PO4-P) combined with chemical oxygen demand (COD) and 02 were conducted. Results showed that the required PO4-P/NOx-N ratio is approximately 0.006 mg/mg after phosphorous precipitation and flocculation. Profile measurements have proven to be an applicable and useful tool. It showed how nitrate and orthophosphorus are removed through the filter bed based on the PO4-P/NOx-N ratio. When orthophosphorus is removed more rapidly and efficiently compared to nitrate, the PO4-P/NOx-N ratio decreases. When PO4-P/NOx-N ratio thresholds are approximately 0.006 mg/mg for a certain period of time and water temperatures varied significantly, orthophosphorus limitation may occur. Changing the filter-bed configuration or decreasing the coagulant dosage can prevent limitation of the denitrifying process because of a phosphorous shortage.     

Factors diminishing the effectiveness of phosphorus loading from municipal effluent: critical information for TMDL analyses

Factors that diminish the effectiveness of phosphorus inputs from a municipal wastewater treatment facility (Metro) in contributing to phosphorus levels and its availability to support algae growth in a culturally eutrophic urban lake (Onondaga Lake, NY) were characterized and quantified. These factors included the bioavailability and settling characteristics of particulate phosphorus from this effluent, the dominant form (70%) of phosphorus in this input, and the plunging of the discharge to stratified layers in the lake. Supporting studies included: (1) chemical and morphometric characterization of the phosphorus-enriched particles of this effluent, compared to particle populations of the tributaries and lake, with an individual particle analysis technique; (2) conduct of algal bioavailability assays of the particulate phosphorus of the effluent; (3) conduct of multiple size class settling velocity measurements on effluent particles; and (4) determinations of the propensity of the discharge to plunge, and documentation of plunging through three-dimensional monitoring of a tracer adjoining the outfall. All of these diminishing effects were found to be operative for the Metro effluent in Onondaga Lake and will be integrated into a forthcoming phosphorus "total maximum daily load" analysis for the lake, through appropriate representation in a supporting mechanistic water quality model. The particulate phosphorus in the effluent was associated entirely with Fe-rich particles formed in the phosphorus treatment process. These particles did not contribute to concentrations in pelagic portions of the lake, due to local deposition associated with their large size. Moreover, this particulate phosphorus was found to be nearly entirely unavailable to support algae growth. While substantial differences are to be expected for various inputs, the effective loading concept and the approaches adopted here to assess the diminishing factors are broadly applicable.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Second-order chlorine decay and trihalomethanes formation in a pilot-scale water distribution systems

It is well known that model-building of chlorine decay in real water distribution systems is difficult because chlorine decay is influenced by many factors (e.g., bulk water demand, pipe-wall demand, piping material, flow velocity, and residence time). In this paper, experiments were run to investigate the kinetic model of chlorine decay and the formation model of trihalomethanes (THMs) in pilot-scale water distribution systems. Experimental results show that the rate constants of chlorine decay, including wall decay and bulk decay, increasing with temperature. Moreover, the kinetic model of chlorine decay and the formation model of THMs describe experiment data of pilot-scale water distribution systems. The effect of different piping material on chlorine decay and THMs formation were also investigated. The rate constants of chlorine decay are ranked in order: stainless steel pipe, ductile iron pipe, and last, polyethelene pipe because wall decay is the largest in stainless steel pipe than that in other piping material. Correspondingly, the rate of THMs formation follows the order of stainless steel pipe, ductile iron pipe, and last, polyethelene pipe because of less chlorine in bulk water reacting with the trihalomethane formation potential (THMFP).     

Histopathological alterations in gill, liver and kidney of common carp exposed to chlorpyrifos

Histopathological alterations in gill, liver and kidney of common carp, Cyprinus carpio, intoxicated with sub-lethal concentrations of chlorpyrifos (O,O,-diethyl-O-3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridyl phosphorothioate) pesticide (1 and 100 μg/L) for a period of 14 days were analyzed under light microscope. Gill exhibited hyperplasia and hypertrophy of gill epithelium, blood congestion, dilation of marginal channel, epithelial lifting, lamellar fusion, lamellar disorganization, lamellar aneurysm, rupture of the lamellar epithelium, rupture of pillar cells and necrosis. Alterations in hepatocytes were more pronounced, including nuclear and cellular hypertrophy, cellular atrophy, irregular contour of cells and nucleus, cytoplasmic vacuolation, cytoplasmic and nuclear degeneration, cellular rupture, pyknotic nucleus, necrosis and melanomacrophages aggregations. Histopathological lesions in kidney were cellular and nuclear hypertrophy, narrowing of tubular lumen, cytoplasmic vacuolation, hyaline droplet degeneration, nuclear degeneration, occlusion of tubular lumen, tubular regeneration, dilation of glomerular capillaries, degeneration of glomerulus and hemorrhage in Bowman's space. The most significant conclusion drawn from this study was that with the increased concentration and duration the toxicosis of chlorpyrifos would be enhanced as shown through the analysis of mean assessment value (MAV) and degree of tissue changes (DTC) also.