A guide to qualitative attribution methods for evaluation in conservation

Knowledge of what conservation interventions improve biodiversity outcomes, and in which circumstances, is imperative. Experimental and quasi-experimental methods are increasingly used to establish causal inference and build the evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions, but their ability to provide insight into how and under what conditions an intervention should be implemented to improve biodiversity outcomes faces limitations. A suite of attribution methods that leverage qualitative methods for causal inference is available but underutilized in conversation impact evaluation. This article provides a guide to 5 such qualitative attribution methods: contribution analysis, process tracing, realist evaluation, qualitative comparative analysis, and most significant change. It defines and introduces each method and then illustrates how they could be applied through a case study of community conservancies in Namibia. This guide provides examples of how qualitative attribution methods can advance knowledge of what works, in which contexts, and why in biodiversity conservation.     

How is activity distributed among and within tasks in Temnothorax ants?

How social insect colonies behave results from the actions of their workers. Individual variation among workers in their response to various tasks is necessary for the division of labor within colonies. A worker may be active in only a subset of tasks (specialist), perform all tasks (elite), or exhibit no particular pattern of task activity (idiosyncratic). Here we examine how worker activity is distributed among and within tasks in ants of the genus Temnothorax. We found that workers exhibited elitism within a situation, i.e., in particular sets of tasks, such as those associated with emigrations, nest building, or foraging. However, there was weak specialization for working in a particular situation. A few workers exhibited elitism across all situations, i.e., high performance in all tasks in all situations. Within any particular task, the distribution of activity among workers was skewed, with few ants performing most of the work and most ants performing very little of the work. We further found that workers persisted in their task preference over days, with the same individuals performing most of the work day after day. Interestingly, colonies were robust to the removal of these highly active workers; they were replaced by other individuals that were previously less active. This replacement was not short-lived; when the removed individuals were returned to the colony, not all of them resumed their prior high activity levels, and not all the workers that replaced them reduced their activity. Thus, even though some workers specialize in tasks within a particular situation and are persistent in performing them, task allocation in a colony is plastic and colonies can withstand removal of highly active individuals.     

Herbivorous amphipods inhabit protective microhabitats within thalli of giant kelp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrocystis pyrifera</Emphasis>

Many small marine herbivores utilize specific algal hosts, but the ultimate factors that shape host selection are not well understood. For example, the use of particular microhabitats within algal hosts and the functional role of these microhabitats have received little attention, especially in large algae such as kelps. We studied microhabitat use of the herbivorous amphipod Peramphithoe femorata that inhabits nest-like domiciles on the blades of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera. The vertical position of nest-bearing blades along the stipe of the algal thallus and the position of the nests within the lateral blades of M. pyrifera were surveyed in two kelp forests in northern-central Chile. Additionally, we conducted laboratory and field experiments to unravel the mechanisms driving the observed distributions. Peramphithoe femorata nests were predominantly built on the distal blade tips in apical sections of the stipes. Within-blade and within-stipe feeding preferences of P. femorata did not explain the amphipod distribution. Amphipods did not consistently select distal over proximal blade sections in habitat choice experiments. Mortality of tethered amphipods without nests was higher at the seafloor than at the sea surface in the field. Nests mitigated mortality of tethered amphipods, especially at the seafloor. Thus, protective microhabitats within thalli of large kelp species can substantially enhance survival of small marine herbivores. Our results suggest that differential survival from predation might be more important than food preferences in determining the microhabitat distribution of these herbivores.     

The foraging ecology of coastal bottlenose dolphins based on stable isotope mixing models and behavioural sampling

Understanding trophic interactions is critical for elucidating ecological roles of marine predators. We used behavioural observations and stable isotope mixing models to investigate the feeding ecology of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in the lagoon of Mayotte (East Africa). We identified prey during 77 % of 54 observed feeding events, observed in both rainy (61 % of events) and dry (39 %) seasons. Caranx melampygus and Gnathanodon speciosus were involved in 67 % of these events, with Tylosurus crocodilus (20 %) and Mugil cephalus (13 %) also consumed. Mixing models, based on δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values of skin and blubber (n = 30 samples for both tissues), suggest that behavioural observations are representative of general feeding patterns. Indeed, C. melampygus and T. crocodilus (G. speciosus could not be included in models) were estimated to contribute most to dolphin diets, with mean estimated contributions of 44.6 % (±18.9) and 48.1 % (±19.1) for skin and 73.7 % (±14.9) and 16.9 % (±12.4) for blubber, respectively. Our results highlight the value of two independent methods (stable isotopes and behavioural observations) to assess prey preferences of free-ranging dolphins.     

Multimodal signals increase active space of communication by wolf spiders in a complex litter environment

Multimodal signals may compensate for environmental constraints on communication, as signals in different modalities vary in efficacy. We examined the influence of complex microhabitats on transmission of vibratory and visual signals of courting male Schizocosa ocreata wolf spiders (Araneae: Lycosidae) with laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV) and behavioral observations in lab and field. We measured maximum potential detection distance of visual and vibratory signals by females in laboratory mesocosms, recorded vibration signal attenuation on different substrates, and estimated transmission distances for male vibration signals in the field. We also determined effective line-of-sight visual detection distances in the field with laser distance measures. Together, these data were used to estimate the potential and effective active space of multimodal signals. LDV measures show leaves are highly conductive substrates for wolf spider vibratory signals compared to others (soil, wood, rock). For both visual and vibratory modes, lab estimates of maximum potential distance for signal transmission and detection (behavior studies) exceeded estimates of effective active space (signal attenuation, “vanishing point,” and “line-of-sight” measures). Field estimates of transmission distance for signal modes overlap, such that in close range (<20 cm), vibratory signals are more likely to be detected, while farther away, visual signals are more likely to be seen. These findings thus support current hypotheses regarding how multimodal communication might extend the range of overall signal active space or compensate for environmental constraints.     

Individual and collective decision-making during nest site selection by the ant Leptothorax albipennis

Social insect colonies possess remarkable abilities to select the best among several courses of action. In populous societies with highly efficient recruitment behaviour, decision-making is distributed across many individuals, each acting on limited local information with appropriate decision rules. To investigate the degree to which small societies with less efficient recruitment can also employ distributed decision-making, we studied nest site selection in Leptothorax albipennis. Colonies were found to make sophisticated choices, taking into account not only the intrinsic qualities of each site, but also its value relative to the available options. In choices between two sites, individual ants were able to visit both sites, compare them and choose the better one. However, most ants encountered only one site in the course of an emigration. These poorly informed ants also contributed to the colony's decision, because their probability of initiating recruitment to a site depended on its quality. This led to shorter latencies between discovery and recruitment to a superior site, and so created greater amplification via positive feedback of the population at the better site. In short, these small colonies make use of a distributed mechanism of information processing, but also take advantage of direct decision-making by well-informed individuals. The latter feature may in part stem from the limitations of their social structure, but may also reflect the stringent demand for unanimous decisions by house-hunting colonies of any size.     

Testing the limits of social resilience in ant colonies

Social resilience is the ability of Leptothorax ant colonies to re-assemble after dissociation, as caused, for example, by an emigration to a new nest site. Through social resilience individual workers re-adopt their spatial positions relative to one another and resume their tasks without any time being wasted in worker respecialisation. Social resilience can explain how an efficient division of labour can be maintained throughout the trials and tribulations of colony ontogeny including the, often substantial, period after the queen dies when the ability to conserve worker social relationships may be essential for efficiency to be maintained. The mechanism underlying social resilience is, therefore, expected to be robust even in the absence of many of the colony’s components, such as the queen, the brood and even a large proportion of the workers. Such losses are likely, given the ecology of this genus. Using sociotomy experiments, we found that social resilience can occur in the absence of the queen. Furthermore, the spatial component of social resilience can occur even when the queen, the brood, as well as a large proportion of the workers, are all absent simultaneously and hence many of the tasks are missing. We conclude, therefore, that social resilience is indeed robust. This does not, however, preclude worker flexibility in response to changes in task supply and demand. We propose a possible sorting mechanism based on worker mobility levels which might explain the robustness underlying this phenomenon. Received: 25 October 1999 / Accepted: 1 April 2000     

Multivariate analysis for source identification of pollution in sediment of Linggi River,Malaysia

Rapid socioeconomic development in the Linggi River Basin has contributed to the significant increase of pollution discharge into the Linggi River and its adjacent coastal areas. The toxic element contents and distributions in the sediment samples collected along the Linggi River were determined using neutron activation analysis (NAA) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) techniques. The measured mean concentration of As, Cd, Pb, Sb, U, Th and Zn is relatively higher compared to the continental crust value of the respective element. Most of the elements (As, Cr, Fe, Pb, Sb and Zn) exceeded the freshwater sediment quality guideline-threshold effect concentration (FSQG-TEC) value. Downstream stations of the Linggi River showed that As concentrations in sediment exceeded the freshwater sediment quality guideline-probable effect concentration (FSQG-PEC) value. This indicates that the concentration of As will give an adverse effect to the growth of sediment-dwelling organisms. Generally, the Linggi River sediment can be categorised as unpolluted to strongly polluted and unpolluted to strongly to extremely polluted. The correlation matrix of metal-metal relationship, principle component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) indicates that the pollution sources of Cu, Ni, Zn, Cd and Pb in sediments of the Linggi River originated from the industry of electronics and electroplating. Elements of As, Cr, Sb and Fe mainly originated from motor-vehicle workshops and metal work, whilst U and Th originated from natural processes such as terrestrial runoff and land erosion.     

Uncertainty assessment of mapping mercury contaminated soils of a rapidly industrializing city in the Yangtze River Delta of China using sequential indicator co-simulation

Accurate characterization of heavy-metal contaminated areas and quantification of the uncertainties inherent in spatial prediction are crucial for risk assessment, soil remediation, and effective management recommendations. Topsoil samples (0–15 cm) (n = 547) were collected from the Zhangjiagang suburbs of China. The sequential indicator co-simulation (SIcS) method was applied for incorporating the soft data derived from soil organic matter (SOM) to simulate Hg concentrations, map Hg contaminated areas, and evaluate the associated uncertainties. High variability of Hg concentrations was observed in the study area. Total Hg concentrations varied from 0.004 to 1.510 mg kg⁻¹ and the coefficient of variation (CV) accounts for 70%. Distribution patterns of Hg were identified as higher Hg concentrations occurred mainly at the southern part of the study area and relatively lower concentrations were found in north. The Hg contaminated areas, identified using the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soils critical values through SIcS, were limited and distributed in the south where the SOM concentration is high, soil pH is low, and paddy soils are the dominant soil types. The spatial correlations between Hg and SOM can be preserved by co-simulation and the realizations generated by SIcS represent the possible spatial patterns of Hg concentrations without a smoothing effect. Once the Hg concentration critical limit is given, SIcS can be used to map Hg contaminated areas and quantitatively assess the uncertainties inherent in the spatial prediction by setting a given critical probability and calculating the joint probability of the obtained areas.     

The Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme: objectives, achievements in the first four years, and plans for future development

The Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme (SRMS) comprises 7 partner organizations and was established in 2002 after i) the publication of the UK Government's Raptor Working Group Report that made recommendations for enhanced monitoring, ii) increased applied data needs (e.g., for site designation), and iii) concerns for the status of some species. The SRMS has 3 major objectives: i) to facilitate cooperation between parties; ii) to provide robust information on Scottish raptor populations by determining trends in numbers, range, survival, and productivity and understanding the causes of change; and iii) to maintain high and uniform standards for the collection, collation, auditing, and analysis of data and reporting of information. Data are collected for 19 species: 14 diurnal raptors, 4 owls, and 1 corvid, the Common Raven. Here we describe the development of the scheme, challenges, and achievements during its first 4 y, the nature and value of the data collected, and plans for the future.