Integrated Models of Fisheries Management and Policy

An overview of the structure and elements of integrated models aimed at studying fishery management policies using static and dynamic optimisation techniques is presented. Continuous and discrete time models are considered under both open-access and sole-owner settings. A variety of economic and biological processes that affect the fishery as a whole is examined. It turns out that overseeing important fish population characteristics such as metapopulation dynamics and multi-species interaction can lead to serious misrepresentation of the fishery and suboptimal controls. Adequate understanding of the economic conditions and considerations potentially affecting the fishermen is necessary to model their behaviour and address their concerns. Misrepresentation of these economic and biologic processes will have an impact on the success of management policies in attaining a sustainable fish population.     

Uncertainty Assessment of Voc Emissions from Paint in the Netherlands Using the Nusap System

We demonstrate an innovative approach to uncertainty assessment known as the NUSAP system, to assess qualitative and quantitative uncertainty for the case of emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from paint in The Netherlands. Using expert elicitation, we identified key sources of error, critical assumptions, and bias in the monitoring process. We assessed pedigree and probabilistic uncertainty of all input quantities. We used four pedigree criteria to assess the strength of the knowledge base: proxy representation, empirical basis, methodological rigour and degree of validation. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we assessed sensitivity and propagation of uncertainty. Results for sensitivity and pedigree were combined in a NUSAP Diagnostic Diagram, which effectively highlighted the assumption for VOC percentage of imported paint as the weakest spot in the monitoring of VOC emissions. We conclude that NUSAP facilitates systematic scrutinization of method and underlying assumptions and structures creative thinking on sources of error and bias. It provides a means to prioritise uncertainties and focus research efforts on the potentially most problematic parameters and assumptions, at the same time identifying specific weaknesses in the knowledge base. With NUSAP, nuances of meaning about quantities can be conveyed concisely and clearly, to a degree that is not possible with statistic methods only.     

Voluntary urban climate programmes: should city governments be involved and,if so,how?

It has been proposed that voluntary urban climate programmes overcome shortfalls in mandatory, top-down, state-led government interventions to address climate change risks. Such programmes seek commitments from households and firms to improve their environmental sustainability, but do not have the force of law. City governments are actively developing and implementing such programmes, seeking improved and accelerated urban climate action. There is little evidence, however, of whether their involvement positively affects voluntary programme performance. This article presents qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of 26 voluntary programmes from Australia, the Netherlands and the US, seeking to understand whether, and if so how, city governments affect the performance of voluntary urban climate programmes. The results will help to inform city governments about the roles they may play in urban climate governance.     

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome: mathematical modelling

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) represents a pregnancy complication with a high risk for perinatal mortality and postnatal morbidity. Mathematical models have been utilized to examine the mechanisms of disease and potential treatment modalities. We developed four consecutive models based on pathophysiology mechanisms. Conceptually, these models remained simple, but with increased complexity in details. We present our models tutorially with the necessary equations expressed in words. The aetiology of TTTS was related to AV anastomoses from donor to recipient and their growth commensurate with placental growth. We assessed that natural growth of placenta and foetuses causes the diameter and length of the AV, as well as the AV's pressure gradient, to increase proportional to gestational age. The AV transfusion then increases faster than natural foetal growth. A progressively increasing discordance subsequently develops, not compensated for by foetal growth. A simulation is performed to show how this discordance in blood volumetric development causes successive discordances in other functions, particularly renal, circulatory, and cardio-vascular, resulting in disease progression to the various stages of TTTS. In conclusion, mathematical modelling of TTTS has provided an understanding of the sequence of events that leads to the various presentations of TTTS stages as well as the efficacy of therapies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of atmospheric mercury depletion events on the net deposition flux around Hudson Bay,Canada

Atmospheric Mercury Depletion Events (AMDE) occur in Arctic and Antarctic regions during polar sunrise. During AMDE, reactive gaseous Hg is rapidly formed through in-situ oxidation of gaseous Hg⁰ by halogens, notably atomic Br and radical BrO. This leads to high Hg deposition fluxes yet an unknown fraction of deposited Hg is reemitted to the atmosphere through subsequent photo-reduction, so that the net deposition flux related to AMDE is not well constrained. Here, Hg and halogens were measured in lichens hanging in tree branches around Hudson Bay where AMDE were reported. Hg concentrations are strongly correlated to halogen elements Br, Cl and I (r² of 0.91, 0.76, 0.81) and decrease with distance from Hudson Bay. We interpret this trend as the result of AMDE, supported by a 1D numerical Br and BrO oxidation model for Hg⁰. Organic carbon normalized Hg contents of down-core lake sediments reported in the literature also show a decreasing trend away from Hudson Bay. Combined observations suggest that at least 50% of Hg deposited during AMDE is reemitted to the atmosphere. Finally, the latitudinal Hg gradient observed in lake sediments suggests that AMDE were active in the Hudson Bay area during the last 90 to 200 years.     

Irrigation pricing policies and its impact on agricultural inputs demand in Tunisia: a DEA-based methodology

This paper estimates farmers' individual irrigation water demand functions employing the information hidden in individual farmers' technical efficiency. This information is extracted through the development of a new deductive methodology based on inverse Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. The empirical results for Tunisia show that farmers who are more technically efficient have less elastic irrigation water demand functions; these farmers would adjust demand only to a limited extent and they can afford the water price. In contrast, water pricing significantly affects those that are less efficient. These farmers shift towards a different cropping pattern using significantly less water and more land when the price of water increases. Thus, higher water prices would threaten this category's livelihood if their efficiency is not improved. However, if the technical efficiency of these farmers were to improve, then it would be more difficult to reach water saving objectives since their demand will also become highly inelastic. The findings have important implications in view of the objectives of Tunisia water policy which include:full cost recovery, continuity of the irrigation activity, and water saving at the national level.     

A combined ecosystem and value chain modeling approach for evaluating societal cost and benefit of fishing

We describe a combined ecological and economic approach aimed at giving more equal emphasis to both disciplines, while being integrated so that design, analysis, data entry and storage, and result capabilities are developed with emphasis on deriving a user-friendly, easily accessible tool. We have thus developed the approach as an integrated module of the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim scientific software; the world's most widely applied ecological modeling tool. We link the trophic ecosystem model to a value-chain approach where we explicitly and in considerable detail keep track of the flow (amounts, revenue, and costs) of fish products from sea through to the end consumer. We also describe the social aspects of the fish production and trade, by evaluating employment and income diagnostics. This is done with emphasis on distribution income while accounting for social aspects of the fishing sector. From a management perspective, one of the interesting aspects of the approach we introduce here, is that it opens for direct evaluation of what impact management interventions, e.g., quota settings, effort regulation, or area closures, may have on the ecosystem, the economy and the social setting, as well as on food availability for the consumer.     

Backgrounds of students of behavior in relation to their attitude toward animal well-being

Knowledge of the backgrounds of students of behaviour working in the field of applied animal behavior science may help us to recognize their influence on conclusions reached in a particular study and on more general points of view. This recognition may result in a speed up of the progress in this science, to the benefit of science and animals. Some types are: (1) Eco-ethologists (ethologists of the hunters-type). They like to stalk healthy wild animals in their natural environment. They are less interested in the abnormal behavior of domestic animals under husbandry circumstances. (2) Behaviorists. These are psychologists that still think in a man-animal dichotomy. They are not interested in animals for their own sake but as models for human behavior. (3) Behavior physiologists. These biologists are not primarily interested in behavior. Because of the type of experiments they perform they have an aversity against animal protectionists. (4) Ethologists of the farmers type. These ethologists want to posses animals, collect animal species, take care of them and breed them. They are able to speak on approximately the same wavelength as farmers as well as animal protectionists. (5) Zootechnicians of the farmers type. These scientists want to make a living out of animals and like to take care for them. They are also able to speak at approximately the same wavelength as farmers and animal protectionists.