The tenth dragon: controlled seasonal flooding in long-term policy plans for the Vietnamese Mekong delta

Recently the Vietnamese government has endorsed a long-term policy plan in which it is proposed to restore controlled seasonal flooding in the upper regions of the Vietnamese part of the Mekong delta. Restoring controlled flooding would contrast a period of several decades characterized by a dominant flood prevention approach to enable intensive rice production in the delta. This article investigates a series of long-term policy plans, which have been developed for the Mekong delta since the 1960s, on their take on flood control sensu flood prevention, or the opposite, controlled seasonal flooding. By doing so it is demonstrated how perspectives on flood management have gradually evolved and, in the specific case of suggesting controlled flooding, have been framed in various ways by various actors. Contemporary proposals for controlled seasonal flooding are supported by actors ranging from governmental institutes to environmental NGOs, and connect to on-going debates about environmental challenges and sustainable development of the Mekong delta. We adopt a systems approach to analyze social, environmental and technological dynamics in the Mekong delta, and discuss whether the different interpretations of controlled flooding may contribute to the long-term sustainability of the delta.     

From leaders to majority: a frontrunner paradox in built-environment climate governance experimentation

This paper seeks to better understand the possible paradox of frontrunners in experimental climate governance. This paradox refers to the situation where frontrunners are required to push boundaries in terms of developing governance innovations and to experiment with these, but where, at the same time, a too strong focus on frontrunners may result in a situation where lessons from these experiments and the innovations developed do not resonate with the majority. In such a situation, an innovation may not be capable of being scaled up or of being transferred to another context. This paper draws lessons from a series of nine experimental and innovative governance instruments for low-carbon building development and transformation in Australia. It points out that for these instruments the frontrunners paradox provides a partial explanation as to why they have not yet been able to scale up from a small group of industry leaders to the large majority.     

Relationship between different size classes of particulate matter and meteorology in three European cities

Evidence on the correlation between particle mass and (ultrafine) particle number concentrations is limited. Winter- and spring-time measurements of urban background air pollution were performed in Amsterdam (The Netherlands), Erfurt (Germany) and Helsinki (Finland), within the framework of the EU funded ULTRA study. Daily average concentrations of ambient particulate matter with a 50% cut off of 2.5 microm (PM2.5), total particle number concentrations and particle number concentrations in different size classes were collected at fixed monitoring sites. The aim of this paper is to assess differences in particle concentrations in several size classes across cities, the correlation between different particle fractions and to assess the differential impact of meteorological factors on their concentrations. The medians of ultrafine particle number concentrations were similar across the three cities (range 15.1 x 10(3)-18.3 x 10(3) counts cm(-3)). Within the ultrafine particle fraction, the sub fraction (10-30 nm) made a higher contribution to particle number concentrations in Erfurt than in Helsinki and Amsterdam. Larger differences across the cities were found for PM2.5(range 11-17 microg m(-3)). PM2.5 and ultrafine particle concentrations were weakly (Amsterdam, Helsinki) to moderately (Erfurt) correlated. The inconsistent correlation for PM2.5 and ultrafine particle concentrations between the three cities was partly explained by the larger impact of more local sources from the city on ultrafine particle concentrations than on PM2.5, suggesting that the upwind or downwind location of the measuring site in regard to potential particle sources has to be considered. Also, relationship with wind direction and meteorological data differed, suggesting that particle number and particle mass are two separate indicators of airborne particulate matter. Both decreased with increasing wind speed, but ultrafine particle number counts consistently decreased with increasing relative humidity, whereas PM2.5 increased with increasing barometric pressure. Within the ultrafine particle mode, nucleation mode (10-30 nm) and Aitken mode (30-100 nm) had distinctly different relationships with accumulation mode particles and weather conditions. Since the composition of these particle fractions also differs, it is of interest to test in future epidemiological studies whether they have different health effects.     

Closure of Disputes in Assessments of Climate Change in The Netherlands

2 greenhouse gases in assessment studies. For the cases studied, we identify variability in the assessment reports in the Netherlands during the pre-IPCC period. In the Netherlands arena, the assessments in this period can be seen as exponents of two different lines, a Netherlands line and an international line. We seek to identify what factors were decisive in the selection processes that resulted in the closure of visible disputes (visible in or across the assessment reports) for both cases. Our analysis reveals a remarkable difference in the adoption behavior of two Dutch assessment groups despite a large overlap in membership. We provide evidence that it is not the paradigmatic predisposition of the experts in the committee that was decisive for the closure of visible disputes, but it was the context in which the experts operated and the commitments they had made in each setting.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

Compound urban crises

The crises that cities face—such as climate change, pandemics, economic downturn, and racism—are tightly interlinked and cannot be addressed in isolation. This paper addresses compound urban crises as a unique type of problem, in which discrete solutions that tackle each crisis independently are insufficient. Few scholarly debates address compound urban crises and there is, to date, a lack of interdisciplinary insights to inform urban governance responses. Combining ideas from complex adaptive systems and critical urban studies, we develop a set of boundary concepts (unsettlement, unevenness, and unbounding) to understand the complexities of compound urban crises from an interdisciplinary perspective. We employ these concepts to set a research agenda on compound urban crises, highlighting multiple interconnections between urban politics and global dynamics. We conclude by suggesting how these entry points provide a theoretical anchor to develop practical insights to inform and reform urban governance.     

Ecological economics: themes, approaches, and differences with environmental economics

This article provides a short overview of the main themes of ecological economics (EE). It is argued that EE provides a platform that fosters multidisciplinary environmental research by bringing together the core contributing disciplines – economics and ecology. In addition, EE is regarded as a pluralistic approach to environmental research that can be set opposite to, and has indeed developed as a response to, traditional environmental and resource economics. A comparison of the two fields is presented to clarify the essential differences between them. In addition, specific themes are examined in more detail. These include: sustainable development; the growth debate; international trade; dynamic processes; and behaviour and policy. Electronic Publication     

The role of farmers’ objectives in current farm practices and adaptation preferences: a case study in Flevoland,the Netherlands

The diversity in farmers’ objectives and responses to external drivers is usually not considered in integrated assessment studies that investigate impacts and adaptation to climate and socio-economic change. Here, we present an approach to assess how farmers’ stated objectives relate to their currently implemented practices and to preferred adaptation options, and we discuss what this implies for assessments of future changes. We based our approach on a combination of multi-criteria decision-making methods. We consistently assessed the importance of farmers’ objectives and adaptation preferences from what farmers say (based on interviews), from what farmers actually do (by analysing current farm performance) and from what farmers want (through a selected alternative farm plan). Our study was performed for six arable farms in Flevoland, a province in the Netherlands. Based on interviews with farmers, we reduced the long list of possible objectives to the most important ones. The objectives we assessed included maximization of economic result and soil organic matter, and minimization of gross margin variance, working hours and nitrogen balance. In our sample, farmers’ stated preferences in objectives were often not fully reflected in realized farming practices. Adaptation preferences of farmers largely resembled their current performance, but generally involved a trend towards stated preferences. Our results suggest that in Flevoland, although farmers do have more objectives, in practical decision-making they focus on economic result maximization, while for strategic decision-making they account for objectives influencing long-term performance and indicators associated with sustainability, in this case soil organic matter.