Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling the contribution of different sources of sulphur to atmospheric deposition in the United Kingdom

In order to understand relationships between sources and receptors of atmospheric deposition, computer models must be used. This paper describes a Lagrangian acid deposition model that represents emissions of trace species across Northern Europe. The chemistry of sulphur dioxide, dimethyl sulphide and hydrogen sulphide is represented and the model tested against estimates of UK wet and dry deposition. Mean UK wet and dry deposition for the period 1992–1994 was 206 and 145 ktonne S yr^-1, respectively. The model predicted wet and dry deposition of 222 and 166 ktonne S yr^-1, in good agreement with measurements. The model has been used to examine the sources of deposited S to the UK. For a base year of 1992, 86% of the UK's SO₂ emissions are exported. The S deposition attributable from mainland European sources was 36% of the UK total S deposition, in good agreement with other UK models but this differs substantially from the calculations of the EMEP model. Natural sources of S deposition from planktonic emissions of dimethyl sulphide, biological emissions of hydrogen sulphide and non-eruptive volcanic emissions of sulphur dioxide contributed approximately 1% of the modelled UK S deposition, of which 95% originated from dimethyl sulphide. The explicit chemical scheme for dimethyl sulphide incorporated into the model showed that 24% of the resultant deposited S was methane sulphonic acid. Boundary conditions of the model were tested and it was found that initialisation of sulphur dioxide and sulphate concentrations to representative ambient conditions had a very small effect. The modelled contribution of UK and European sources to UK S deposition was approximately 40 and 60%, respectively, showing the dramatic change arising from projected UK SO₂ emissions in 2010. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies

This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.     

Water quality assessment of Almatti Reservoir of Bijapur (Karnataka State, India) with special reference to zooplankton

The present investigation deals with the limnobiotic status of Almatti reservoir from February, 2003 to January, 2005. The study revealed that, the distribution and population density of zooplankton species depend upon the physico-chemical factors of the environment. Statistical analysis showed that there exists a significant relation between the biological and non-biological factors. The benthic fauna constituting the food of fish can be utilized for extensive culture operation so that the nutrients in the reservoir are not only properly cycled but also serve as a check on further eutrophication.     

Measurement of particulate phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) around a petroleum refinery

A study on concentrations of ambient particulates viz. total suspended particulate matters (TSP), respirable suspended particulate matter (RSPM) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were carried out at six sites around the Asia’s largest, 12 MMTPA, petroleum refinery in west coast of India. PAH concentrations are correlated with each other in these sites, suggesting that they have related sources and sinks. The present article discusses the monitoring aspects such as sample collection, pretreatment and analytical methods and compares the monitored levels for assessing the source receptor distribution pattern. The main sources of RSPM and PAHs in urban air are automobile exhaust (CPCB, Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air and their effects on human health. “”, 2003; Manuel et al., Environmental Science and Technology, 13: 227–231, 2004) and industrial emissions like petroleum refinery (Vo-Dinh, Chemical analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, Wiley: New York, 1989; Wagrowaski and Hites, Environmental Science and Technology, 31: 279–282, 1997). Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are ubiquitous constituents of urban airborne particulate mostly generated by anthropogenic activities (Li et al., Environmental Science and Technology, 37:1958–2965, 2003; Thorsen et al., Environmental Science and Technology, 38: 2029–2037, 2004; Ohura et al., Environmental Science and Technology, 32: 450–455, 2004) and some of them are of major health concern mainly due to their well-known carcinogenic and mutagenic properties (Soclo et al., Marine Pollution Bulletin, 40: 387–396, 2000; Chen et al., Environment International, 28: 659–668, 2003; Larsen and Baker, Environmental Science and Technology, 32: 450–455, 2003). Limited information is available on PAHs contributions from refineries to ambient air. Hence this study would not only create a database but also provide necessary inputs towards dose-response relationship for fixing standards. Also, since it acts as precursor to green house gas, the data would be useful for climate change assessments. The objective of this article is to find out the concentration of PAHs in particulate matter around petroleum refinery and compare with their concentrations in major Indian urban centers.     

Artificial neural network based carbon monoxide persistence models for episodic urban air quality management

This paper describes the development of artificial neural network (ANN) based carbon monoxide (CO) persistence (ANNCOP) models to forecast 8-h average CO concentration using 1-h maximum predicted CO data for the critical (winter) period (November–March). The models have been developed for three 8-h groupings of 10 p.m. to 6 a.m., 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. and 2–10 p.m., at two air quality control regions (AQCRs) in Delhi city, representing an urban intersection and an arterial road consisting heterogeneous traffic flows. The result indicates that time grouping of 2–10 pm is dominantly affected by inversion conditions and peak traffic flow. The ANNCOP model corresponding to this grouping predicts the 8-h average CO concentrations within the accuracy range of 68–71%. The CO persistence values derived from ANNCOP model are comparable with the persistence values as suggested by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USA. This work demonstrates that ANN based model is capable of describing winter period CO persistence phenomena.     

Assessment of metal enrichments in tsunamigenic sediments of Pichavaram mangroves, southeast coast of India

The 26 December 2004-Tsunami has deposited sediments in the Pichavaram mangrove ecosystem, east coast of India. Ten surface and three core sediment samples were collected within thirty days of the event. High concentrations of Cd, Cu, Cr, Pb, and Ni were observed in the tsunamigenic sediments. With respect to Fe, Zn, and Mn, there was little variation as compared to pre-tsunami values. The geo-accumulation index was calculated in order to assess the contamination of heavy metals in the sediments. The sediments were extremely contaminated with respect to Cd and they showed moderate to strong contamination with respect to Cr, Pb and Ni. The study highlighted the future risk of enhanced metal pollution in near future in this mangrove ecosystem.     

Screening and identification of early warning algal species for metal contamination in fresh water bodies polluted from point and non-point sources

The water bodies of Lucknow, Unnao and Kanpur (U.P.), India polluted through various point and non point sources were found to be either eutrophic or oligotrophic in nature. These water bodies supported a great number of algal diversity, which varied seasonally depending upon the physico-chemical properties of water. Further, the water bodies polluted through non point sources supports diverse algal species, while the water bodies polluted through point sources supports growth of tolerant blue green algae. High biomass producing algal species growing in these water bodies have accumulated significant amount of metals in their tissues. Maximum amount of Fe was found accumulated by species of Oedogonium sp. II (20,523.00 mug g(-1) dw) and Spirogyra sp. I (4,520.00 mug g(-1) dw), while maximum Chromium (Cr) was found accumulated in Phormedium bohneri (2,109.00 mug g(-1) dw) followed by Oscillatoria nigra (1,957.88 mug g(-1) dw) and Oedogonium sp. I (156.00 mug g(-1) dw) and Ni in Ulothrix sp. (495.00 mug g(-1) dw). Results showed that some of these forms growing in polluted environment and accumulating high amounts of toxic metals may be used as bioindicator species, however, their performance in metal contaminated water under different ecological niche is to be ascertained.     

Biophysical and socioeconomic characterization of a water-stressed area and simulating agri-production estimates and land use planning under normal and extreme climatic events: a case study

This study aims in linking the biophysical and socioeconomic data base layers with the technical coefficients or simulation models for agri-production estimates and land use planning under normal and extreme climatic events, and exploring the resource and inputs management options in village Shikohpur, Gurgaon district located in the northwest part of India. The socioeconomic profile of Shikohpur is highly skewed with mostly small and marginal farmers. Though the areas under wheat in Shikohpur are increasing, the productivity is declining or remaining stagnant over the years. Most of the area during kharif season (June-September) remains fallow. Pearl millet based cropping systems (pearl millet-mustard and pearl millet-wheat) are predominant. Soils are mostly loamy sand to sandy loam with average of 70-80% sand content. Organic C content in soil is less than 0.3%, due to high prevailing temperature with little rainfall and also intensive agriculture followed in this region. Though the annual average seasonal rainfall in Gurgaon did not have much variation over the years, occurrence of extreme climate events has increased in the last two decades. The crop intensity is low and the water table is declining. Water and nitrogen production functions were developed for the important crops of the region, for their subsequent use in scheduling of the inputs. InfoCrop, WTGROWS and technical coefficients were used for crop planning and resource management under climate change and its variability, extreme events, limited resource availability and crop intensification. These will help in disseminating necessary agro-advisories to the farmers so that they will be able to manipulate the inputs and agronomic management practices for sustained agricultural production under normal as well as extreme climatic conditions.