A survey of diagnostic amniocenteses in Oxford from 1974–1981

A survey was conducted of the results of mid-trimester diagnostic amniocenteses in the Oxford Region from 1974 to 1981. The survey used data relating to all 4357 singleton pregnancies in which an amniocentesis was performed during this period. Follow-up information on outcome was obtained in respect of 4284 (98 per cent) pregnancies. A cell culture to determine karyotype and an alpha-fetoprotein determination was carried out in all cases. From 1974 to 1981 amniocenteses became increasingly common, rising from 2 to 32 per 1000 births. The most common indication for amniocentesis was a high risk of a chromosome abnormality–56 per cent of all amniocenteses. Within this group advanced maternal age was responsible for 89 per cent of the cases. The next most common indication was a high risk of a neural tube defect (37 per cent of all amniocenteses)–in 1974 a raised maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein level accounted for only 4 per cent of these; by 1981 this had risen to 67 per cent. There were seven false-positive and 132 true-positive diagnoses of neural tube defect; since 1981, with the introduction of amniotic fluid acetylocholinesterase determination as a secondary diagnostic test for neural tube defects, there have been no further false-positive diagnoses. In 1981 76 per cent of women aged 35 years or more did not have an amniocentesis. It is not known to what extent this was due to not offering women in this age group amniocentesis or to women not accepting such an offer.     

Risk-taking, warning labels, training, and regulation: Are they associated with the use of helmets by all-terrain vehicle riders?

Training programs and warning labels have been advocated as a means of convincing consumers to follow safety precautions when using all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and are emphasized in the recent consent decree signed between the Consumer Product Safety Commission and ATV manufacturers. An alternative approach is to mandate safe behavior through regulations and law. This field study of ATV operator behavior conducted in six states in 1988 and 1989 provides initial insight into the effectiveness of these approaches. Logit analysis revealed that helmet use was significantly higher when required by law or when riders had 3 or more years of riding experience. Helmet use was significantly lower when riders rode frequently, when helmets were perceived as uncomfortable or not used on motorcycles, and when subjects had been moderately or seriously injured in ATV accidents. The presence of warning labels, reading of a manual, and participation in a training course were not significantly related to helmet use.     

Exploratory factor analysis of adolescent attitudes toward alcohol and risk

This 2-year longitudinal study of 302 high school students in the state of Indiana examined attitudes toward the use of alcohol in 25 potentially hazardous settings, varying from riding in a car, to swimming, to simply drinking at home. Student ratings indicated that they were capable of rationally evaluating alcohol-related risks. Principal components factor analysis identified three factors underlying student responses: propensity/desirability of the behavior, choice/control of the risk, and fear/consequences/likelihood of the risk. Each of these factors was comparable to factors found to be important in past studies of adult risk perception. The finding that self-reported behavioral propensity and desirability were weakly correlated with the measures of perceived risk is of particular interest. Attempts to reduce the use of alcohol by adolescents have traditionally focused on risk awareness. The implication of this study is that intervention programs might be more successful if they focused on modifying perceived value.     

Spatial and Seasonal Variation of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Concentrations in Irish Streams: Importance of Soil and Topography Characteristics

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have increased in many sites in Europe and North America in recent decades. High DOC concentrations can damage the structure and functions of aquatic ecosystems by influencing water chemistry. This study investigated the spatial and seasonal variation of DOC concentrations in Irish streams across 55 sites at seven time occasions over 1 year (2006/2007). The DOC concentrations ranged from 0.9 to 25.9 mg/L with a mean value of 6.8 and a median value of 5.7 mg/L and varied significantly over the course of the year. The DOC concentrations from late winter (February: 5.2 ± 3.0 mg/L across 55 sites) and early spring (April: 4.5 ± 3.5 mg/L) had significantly lower DOC concentrations than autumn (October: mean 8.3 ± 5.6 mg/L) and early winter (December: 8.3 ± 5.1 mg/L). The DOC production sources (e.g., litterfall) or the accumulation of DOC over dry periods might be the driving factor of seasonal change in Irish stream DOC concentrations. Analysis of data using stepwise multiple linear regression techniques identified the topographic index (TI, an indication of saturation-excess runoff potential) and soil conditions (organic carbon content and soil drainage characteristics) as key factors in controlling DOC spatial variation in different seasons. The TI and soil carbon content (e.g., soil organic carbon; peat occurrence) are positively related to DOC concentrations, while well-drained soils are negatively related to DOC concentrations. The knowledge of spatial and seasonal variation of DOC concentrations in streams and their drivers are essential for optimum riverine water resources management.     

US copper supply : An economic/engineering analysis of cost—supply relationships

The authors present short- and long-term supply schedules for the primary US copper industry. These schedules are based on the economic theory of supply, and are derived from site- and input-specific cost data. Cost figures are arrived at by a combination of engineering process analysis and statistical cost estimation. The supply functions can be used to evaluate the effects of changes in market, policy, or other variables on US copper supply.     

Introducing urine-enriched biochar-based fertilizer for vegetable production: acceptability and results from rural Bangladesh

Improved agricultural practices that increase yields and preserve soils are critical to addressing food insecurity and undernutrition among smallholder farmer families. Urine-enriched biochar has been shown to be an accessible and effective fertilization option in various subtropical countries; however, it is new to Bangladesh. To better understand attitudes and experiences preparing and using urine-enriched biochar fertilizer, mixed-methods research was undertaken among smallholder farmers in northeastern Bangladesh in 2016/2017. In-depth interviews were conducted with 25 respondents who had compared the production of crops grown with biochar-based fertilizer to usual practice. In addition, in areas where trainings on biochar-based fertilization had been offered, 845 farmers were asked about their experience through a quantitative survey. Interview results indicated that cow urine-enriched biochar was favored over human urine because cow urine was perceived as clean and socially acceptable, whereas human urine was considered impure and disgusting. Respondents praised biochar-based fertilizer because it increased yields, cost little, was convenient to prepare with readily available natural materials, produced tastier crops, and allowed families to share their larger yields which in turn enhanced social and financial capital. Comparative field trials indicated a 60% yield benefit in both cabbage and kohlrabi crops. Challenges included uneven access to ingredients, with some respondents having difficulty procuring cow urine and biomass feedstock. The low social, health, and financial risk of adoption and the perceived benefits motivated farmers to produce and apply biochar-based fertilizer in their gardens, demonstrating strong potential for scale-up of this technology in Bangladesh.

     

Predicting Extinction Times from Environmental Stochasticity and Carrying Capacity

Managers of small populations often need to estimate the expected time to extinction T_e of their charges. Useful models for extinction times must be ecologically realistic and depend on measurable parameters. Many populations become extinct due to environmental stochasticity, even when the carrying capacity K is stable and the expected growth rate is positive. A model is proposed that gives T_e by diffusion analysis of the log population size n_t (= log_e N_t). The model population grows according to the equation N_t+1 = R_tN_t, with K as a ceiling. Application of the model requires estimation of the parameters k = logK, r_d = the expected change in n, v_r = Variance(log R), and ϱ the autocorrelation of the r_t. These are readily calculable from annual census data (r_d is trickiest to estimate). General formulas for T_e are derived. As a special case, when environmental fluctuations overwhelm expected growth (that is r_d 0), T_e = 2n_o(k - n_o/2)/v_r. If the r_t are autocorrelated, then the effective variance is v_re v_r (1 + ϱ)/(1 - ϱ). The theory is applied to populations of checkerspot butterfly, grizzly bear, wolf, and mountain lion.