Predicting Extinction Times from Environmental Stochasticity and Carrying Capacity

Managers of small populations often need to estimate the expected time to extinction T_e of their charges. Useful models for extinction times must be ecologically realistic and depend on measurable parameters. Many populations become extinct due to environmental stochasticity, even when the carrying capacity K is stable and the expected growth rate is positive. A model is proposed that gives T_e by diffusion analysis of the log population size n_t (= log_e N_t). The model population grows according to the equation N_t+1 = R_tN_t, with K as a ceiling. Application of the model requires estimation of the parameters k = logK, r_d = the expected change in n, v_r = Variance(log R), and ϱ the autocorrelation of the r_t. These are readily calculable from annual census data (r_d is trickiest to estimate). General formulas for T_e are derived. As a special case, when environmental fluctuations overwhelm expected growth (that is r_d 0), T_e = 2n_o(k - n_o/2)/v_r. If the r_t are autocorrelated, then the effective variance is v_re v_r (1 + ϱ)/(1 - ϱ). The theory is applied to populations of checkerspot butterfly, grizzly bear, wolf, and mountain lion.     

Traits, not origin, explain impacts of plants on larval amphibians

Managing habitats for the benefit of native fauna is a priority for many government and private agencies. Often, these agencies view nonnative plants as a threat to wildlife habitat, and they seek to control or eradicate nonnative plant populations. However, little is known about how nonnative plant invasions impact native fauna, and it is unclear whether managing these plants actually improves habitat quality for resident animals. Here, we compared the impacts of native and nonnative wetland plants on three species of native larval amphibians; we also examined whether plant traits explain the observed impacts. Specifically, we measured plant litter quality (carbon : nitrogen : phosphorus ratios, and percentages of lignin and soluble phenolics) and biomass, along with a suite of environmental conditions known to affect larval amphibians (hydroperiod, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH). Hydroperiod and plant traits, notably soluble phenolics, litter C:N ratio, and litter N:P ratio, impacted the likelihood that animals metamorphosed, the number of animals that metamorphosed, and the length of larval period. As hydroperiod decreased, the likelihood that amphibians achieved metamorphosis and the percentage of tadpoles that successfully metamorphosed also decreased. Increases in soluble phenolics, litter N:P ratio, and litter C:N ratio decreased the likelihood that tadpoles achieved metamorphosis, decreased the percentage of tadpoles metamorphosing, decreased metamorph production (total metamorph biomass), and increased the length of larval period. Interestingly, we found no difference in metamorphosis rates and length of larval period between habitats dominated by native and nonnative plants. Our findings have important implications for habitat management. We suggest that to improve habitats for native fauna, managers should focus on assembling a plant community with desirable traits rather than focusing only on plant origin.     

Palatability mapping: a koala's eye view of spatial variation in habitat quality

Ecologists trying to understand the value of habitat to animals must first describe the value of resources contained in the habitat to animals and, second, they must describe spatial variation in resource quality at a resolution relevant to individual animal foraging. We addressed these issues in a study of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in a Eucalyptus woodland. We measured beneficial and deterrent chemical characteristics as well as the palatability of trees using a near-infrared spectroscopic model based on direct feeding experiments. Tree use by koalas was influenced by tree size and foliar quality but was also context-dependent: trees were more likely to be visited if they were surrounded by small, unpalatable trees or by large, palatable trees. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and several mapping approaches demonstrated that foliar quality is spatially structured in the woodland at a scale relevant to foraging decisions by koalas and that the spatial structure is an important component of habitat quality.     

Organochlorine residues in New York waterfowl harvested by hunters in 1983–1984

Thirteen organochlorine compounds were detected in fat and breast muscle tissues of Canada goose and five species of ducks that were shot by sportsman in New York. Residues of DDE and PCB occurred most frequently and were positively identified along with DDT, heptachlor epoxide, trans-nonachlor, and hexachlorobenzene. Compounds that were detected but not positively confirmed by mass spectrometry were dieldrin, mirex, heptachlor, chlordane, oxychlordane, and endrin. Wood duck (Aix sponsa) and Canada goose (Branta canadensis) had significantly lower levels of DDE and PCB than black duck (Anas rubripes), mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), scaup (Athya sp.), and bufflehead (Bucephala albeola). Birds collected from Long Island and the Hudson River-Lake Champlain corridor carried highest concentrations.     

Conflicting demands on detoxification pathways influence how common brushtail possums choose their diets

Most herbivores eat more and survive better when they have access to a variety of foods. One explanation involves the detoxification of plant secondary metabolites (PSMs). By feeding from a variety of plants that contain different classes of PSMs, animals can use multiple detoxification pathways and presumably consume more food. Although popular, this theory is difficult to test because it requires knowledge of the detoxification pathways of each PSM in the diet. We established that common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) use various combinations of oxidation, hydrolysis, and conjugation with glucuronic acid (GA) or glycine to detoxify six PSMs. Compared to their ingestion of a single PSM, possums ate more when offered a choice between two diets containing PSMs that require apparently independent detoxification pathways (benzoate and 1,8-cineole, benzoate and p-cymene, benzoate and orcinol, benzoate and salicin, or orcinol and 1,8-cineole). However, possums still did not eat as much of these diets as they did of a basal diet free of PSMs. This suggests that detoxification pathways are never independent, but are separated instead by degrees. In contrast, possums offered a choice of two PSMs that require competing detoxification pathways (1,8-cineole and p-cymene, 1,8-cineole and salicin, or orcinol and salicin) ate no more than when offered diets containing one of the compounds. There was an exception: even though both rutin and orcinol are detoxified via conjugation with GA, the feeding behavior of possums did not suggest competition for detoxification pathways. This implies that the supply of GA is not limiting. This study provides the first convincing evidence that herbivorous mammals can eat more by selecting mixed diets with a diversity of PSMs that make full use of their detoxification potential. It also emphasizes that other behavioral and physiological factors, such as transient food aversions, influence feeding behavior.     

The territorialization of transnational sustainability governance: production,power and globalization in Iceland’s fisheries

To contribute to the literature on transnational sustainability governance hybrids, a new fisheries certification program in Iceland that was originally developed as an alternative to the non-governmental Marine Stewardship Council is examined. While this new program appears on the surface to constitute a purely nationalistic reaction against external non-state authority, the new governance institution is also non-governmental and incorporates international norms and institutions. To explain this new governance hybrid, Robert Cox’s International Political Economy approach to production and power is engaged. This approach theorizes the co-constitution of the social forces of production, state–society complexes and global governance. It is argued that the Icelandic case is not entirely localized or unique; it is part of a broader movement in which social forces of production respond to new market-oriented transnational sustainability governance institutions by developing territorially embedded but transnationally legitimate alternatives.