陕西省精细化地质灾害气象预报预警研究

在黄土高原和秦巴山区地质灾害与降水相关特征分析基础上,介绍了陕西省气象台精细化地质灾害气象预报预警模型与业务系统.利用新一代多普勒天气雷达和自动气象站加密资料实现了综合雨量的精细估计,结合GIS地形地貌信息和历史灾害风险分析确定出降水影响系数后,通过计算指标量与灾害临界阈值判断实现了陕西省l 915个乡镇地质灾害的逐日...     

A dynamic Bayesian networks modeling of human factors on offshore blowouts

An application of dynamic Bayesian networks for quantitative risk assessment of human factors on offshore blowouts is presented. Human error is described using human factor barrier failure (HFBF), which consists of three categories of factors, including individual factor barrier failure (IFBF), organizational factor barrier failure (OFBF) and group factor barrier failure (GFBF). The structure of human factors is illustrated using pseudo-fault tree, which is defined by incorporating the intermediate options into fault tree in order to eliminate the binary restriction. A methodology of translating pseudo-fault tree into Bayesian networks and dynamic Bayesian networks taking repair into consideration is proposed and the propagation is performed. The results show that the human factor barrier failure probability only increases within the first two weeks and rapidly reaches a stable level when the repair is considered, whereas it increases continuously when the repair action is not considered. The results of mutual information show that the important degree sequences for the three categories of human factors on HFBF are: GFBF, OFBF and IFBF. In addition, each individual human factor contributes different to the HFBF, those which contribute much should given more attention in order to improve the human reliability and prevent the potential accident occurring.     

Towards Sustainable Integrated Watershed Ecosystem Management: A Case Study in Dingxi on the Loess Plateau, China

The Chinese government initiated a massive conservation program called “Grain-for-Green” in 1999 to reduce soil erosion and improve ecosystem function. Implementing practical sustainable development in the loess plateau still remains problematic, particularly in its eco-fragile areas. Here we discussed an approach for sustainable development at the watershed scale by integrating land use suitability, ecosystem services and public participation in the loess hilly area. We linked land use scenario analysis and economic modeling to compare the outcomes of three scenarios, CLU (Current Land Use), GOLU (Grain-production Oriented Land Use) and PSLU (Potential Sustainable Land Use). The results indicated that compared to PSLU, GOLU may provide a higher economic productivity in the short-term, but not in the long-term. CLU ranked lowest in terms of economic benefits and did not meet the daily needs of the local farmers. To reconcile the land use adjustments with farmers’ basic needs, a labor-saving land use strategy is necessary. Since the PSLU scenario assumes that slope cropland should be converted to pastures or orchards, more time may be available for off-farm work and for more public participation in integrated ecosystem management. Financial support to the local farmers for environmental conservation should be modulated in function of their positive contribution to ecosystem management.     

可进行择优决策的灰色预测GM（1,1）动态模型

本文提出了一个可进行择优决策的GM(1、1)优化模型。这个模型使原序列的内含信息得到充分开发利用,较好地解决了大样本序列用GM(1、1)建模的问题。实例证明:通过择优指数C_i择取的、以a、u参数外延得到的优化模型,抓住了原序列的主要变化规律,是一个平稳的、具有一定预测能力的模型。     

Biodegradation of phenol and /w-cresol by mutated Candida tropicalis

The phenol and m-cresol biodegradations were studied using the mutant strain CTM 2 obtained by the He-Ne laser irradiation on wild-type Candida tropicalis. The results showed that C. tropicalis exhibited the increased capacity of phenolic compounds degradation after laser irradiation. It could degrade 2600 mg/L phenol and 300 mg/L m-cresol by 5% inoculum concentration, respectively. In the dual-substrate biodegradation system, 0-500 mg/L phenol could accelerate m-cresol biodegradation, and 300 mg/L m-cresol could be completely utilized within 46 hr at the presence of 350 mg/L phenol. Besides, the maximum biodegradation of m-cresol could reach 350 mg/L with 80 mg/L phenol within 61 hr. Obviously, phenol, as a growth substrate, could promote CTM 2 to degrade m-cresol, and was always preferentially utilized as carbon source. Comparatively, low-concentration m-cresol could result in a great inhibition on phenol degradation. In addition, the kinetic behaviors of cell growth and substrate biodegradation were described by kinetic model proposed in our laboratory.     

采用双膜法处理炼油达标污水的试验及应用

介绍了中国石油化工股份有限公司济南分公司采用双膜法处理炼油达标污水回用于锅炉的中试及应用情况,提出了工艺设计及运行中可以采用的几项节能减排措施.     

环境样品中多氯联苯的分析技术

作为一种持久性有机污染物,多氯联苯在地球上的分布十分广泛。然而由于多氯联苯在环境样品中残留浓度低、干扰物质多且组成复杂,必须对环境样品进行预处理。目前较为常用的含多氯联苯样品的前处理技术有：溶剂萃取技术、固相萃取技术、固相微萃取技术、超临界萃取技术、微波萃取技术和加速溶剂萃取技术等,分析经过技术处理以后的样品常用的方法有化学分析方法和生物分析方法,化学方法包括气相色谱法,气相色谱质谱分析法等;生物方法有生物传感器测定法、表面胞质团共振检测、以Ah受体为基础的生物分析法和酶联免疫检测法。中国在这方面的研究投入不够,应加大人力、财力和物力的支持,提高环境样品中多氯联苯的检测水平。     

沉淀-Fenton氧化预处理甲基硫菌灵废水

研究沉淀-Fenton氧化对甲基硫菌灵生产废水的预处理,考察SCN^-和CODcr的去除效果。先加入Cu-SO4和Na2S2O3对SCN^-进行沉淀,考察CuSO4和Na2S2O3加入量对CODcr去除率的影响;对沉淀后水样进行Fenton氧化,通过改变pH值、H2O2浓度、Fe^2＋浓度、反应时间等得出该农药废水在常温下的最佳操作条件。实验结果表明,经过沉淀处理后的废水,pH值为4、H2O2投加量为6～7 g/L、Fe^2＋投加量为1.2～1.5 g/L,氧化时间为2～4 h,CODcr浓度从12 000 mg/L降至3 600 mg/L,总去除率达到了70%。     

原子吸收法测定土壤中金属元素时空白值的降低方法

对采用硝酸-氢氟酸-高氯酸消解体系消解土壤,原子吸收法测定铜、锌、铅、镉、镍时空白值不同程度升高的原因进行了详细的分析,通过采用器皿的认真清洗,防止消解过程中的尘埃污染,选用高纯水和优级纯消解试剂,注意氢氟酸的准确加入方法以及消解过程中赶酸完全等改进措施,有效降低了空白试验值,提高了土壤中金属元素测定的精密度和准确度,满足了监测方法的需要。     

中国战略环境评价（SEA）研究进展及发展趋势

自1990年战略环境评价引入中国以来,SEA在中国已经有了很大发展。中国政府已于2002年颁布了《中华人民共和国环境影响评价法》（以下称“环评法”）,该法中明确规定了对各级政府制定的规划需要进行SEA。通过运用资料调查和文献分析等方法,针对环评法实施后中国SEA实践和学术研究成果进行分析,并探讨中国SEA主要层次一规划环境影响评价的研究现状,总结发展特点;结合中国国情提出中国SEA发展趋势。