A flexible spatio-temporal model for air pollution with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of \(\text {NO}_{x}\) in the Los Angeles area during a 10 year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated \(R^2\) of approximately \(0.7\) at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.     

Optimisation of adjusted barrier management to improve glass eel migration at an estuarine barrier

Estuarine barriers may significantly reduce the upstream migration of diadromous fish species like the European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.). Previous research showed that limited barrier opening during tidal rise was a cost-efficient and effective mitigation option to improve upstream glass eel migration, without significant intrusion of sea water. This paper aims to optimise this adjusted barrier management to improve eel passage at a tidal barrier complex at the mouth of the River Yser, Flanders, Belgium, one of the most important migration routes for glass eel in Flanders. Specifically, three hypotheses were tested. The first hypothesis analysed the impact of the number of barriers opened on the upstream glass eel migration. The second hypothesis evaluated the relation between the size of the barrier opening and glass eel migration. Finally, we tested whether the suggested adjusted barrier management may lead to a significant increase in conductivity in the River Yser. Increased opening of one barrier appeared more efficient than opening several barriers slightly. Conductivity increased during periods of extreme drought and at base flow, but decreased within 24 h after the first peak flow. This indicates that adjusted barrier management does not entail salt intrusion in the Yser basin, as long as this management is not applied in extremely dry periods. Since the adjusted barrier management is easily implemented and could be applied on numerous tidal barriers, the presented results may contribute to restoration of eel populations worldwide and be of interest to a wide range of river managers and stakeholders.     

L'Aquila's reconstruction challenges: has Italy learned from its previous earthquake disasters?

Italy is an earthquake‐prone country and its disaster emergency response experiences over the past few decades have varied greatly, with some being much more successful than others. Overall, however, its reconstruction efforts have been criticised for being ad hoc, delayed, ineffective, and untargeted. In addition, while the emergency relief response to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009—the primary case study in this evaluation—seems to have been successful, the reconstruction initiative got off to a very problematic start. To explore the root causes of this phenomenon, the paper argues that, owing to the way in which Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has politicised the process, the L'Aquila reconstruction endeavour is likely to suffer problems with local ownership, national/regional/municipal coordination, and corruption. It concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at addressing the pitfalls that may confront the L'Aquila reconstruction process over the next few years.     

Population size affects vital rates but not population growth rate of a perennial plant

Negative effects of habitat fragmentation on individual performance have been widely documented, but relatively little is known about how simultaneous effects on multiple vital rates translate into effects on population viability in long-lived species. In this study, we examined relationships between population size, individual growth, survival and reproduction, and population growth rate in the perennial plant Phyteuma spicatum. Population size positively affected the growth of seedlings, the survival of juveniles, the proportion of adults flowering, and potential seed production. Analyses with integral projection models, however, showed no relationship between population size and population growth rate. This was due to the fact that herbivores and pathogens eliminated the relationship between population size and seed production, and that population growth rate was not sensitive to changes in the vital rates that varied with population size. We conclude that effects of population size on vital rates must not translate into effects on population growth rate, and that populations of long-lived organisms may partly be able to buffer negative effects of small population size on vital rates that have a relatively small influence on population growth rate. Our study illustrates that we need to be cautious when assessing the consequences of habitat fragmentation for population viability based on effects on only one or a few vital rates.     

Experimental warming shows that decomposition temperature sensitivity increases with soil organic matter recalcitrance

Soil C decomposition is sensitive to changes in temperature, and even small increases in temperature may prompt large releases of C from soils. But much of what we know about soil C responses to global change is based on short-term incubation data and model output that implicitly assumes soil C pools are composed of organic matter fractions with uniform temperature sensitivities. In contrast, kinetic theory based on chemical reactions suggests that older, more-resistant C fractions may be more temperature sensitive. Recent research on the subject is inconclusive, indicating that the temperature sensitivity of labile soil organic matter (OM) decomposition could either be greater than, less than, or equivalent to that of resistant soil OM. We incubated soils at constant temperature to deplete them of labile soil OM and then successively assessed the CO2-C efflux in response to warming. We found that the decomposition response to experimental warming early during soil incubation (when more labile C remained) was less than that later when labile C was depleted. These results suggest that the temperature sensitivity of resistant soil OM pools is greater than that for labile soil OM and that global change-driven soil C losses may be greater than previously estimated.     

Herbivore-induced "rent rise" in the host plant may drive a diet breadth enlargement in the tenant

Inter- and intraspecies variations in host plant traits are presumably involved in many host shifts by insect herbivores, and elucidating the mechanisms involved in such shifts has been a crucial goal in insect-plant research for several decades. Here we propose that herbivore-induced evolutionary increases in host plant resistance may cause oligophagous insect herbivores to shift to other sympatric plants as currently preferred host plants become increasingly unpalatable. We tested this hypothesis in a system based on the perennial herb Filipendula ulmaria (Rosaceae), whose herbivory defense has become gradually stronger due to prolonged selection by Galerucella tenella (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) herbivory in a boreal archipelago. We show that Galerucella gradually increases its use of the alternative host plant Rubus arcticus (Rosaceae) in parallel to gradually increased resistance in Filipendula. Our results imply that, by driving the evolutionary increase in Filipendula resistance, Galerucella is also gradually making the original host species more unpalatable and thereby driving its own host-breadth enlargement. We argue that such self-inflicted "rent rises" may be an important mechanism behind host plant shifts, which in turn are believed to have preceded the speciation of many phytophagous insects.     

Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.     

Drugs and driving

The authors present a global overview on the issue of drugs and driving covering four major areas: (1) Epidemiology and Prevalence--which reviews epidemiological research, summarizes available information, discusses the methodological shortcomings of extant studies, and makes recommendations for future research to better define prevalence and epidemiology; (2) Effects of Medicinal and Illegal Drugs on Driving Performance--focuses on the six classes of drugs most often found in impaired and injured drivers, draws conclusions regarding the risk of these drugs to traffic safety and discusses the need for additional research; (3) Toxicological Issues--discusses ways to identify drug users via behavioral testing and analytical techniques, reviews the approaches used by different countries, screening and confirmation techniques, alternative specimens (e.g., urine, oral fluid, sweat), and how rapid roadside testing could be coupled with behavioral and laboratory testing in an effective approach to identifying and prosecuting drugged drivers; (4) Driving Under the Influence of Drugs [DUID] Laws--provides an overview of DUID laws in the United States and Europe, discusses the basic tenets of these laws, the various types of DUID statutes, the reasons why many existing laws hinder the prosecution of drugged drivers and the rationale for developing per se legislation as a strategy to more effectively manage the drugged driver problem.     

On the ecology of a North Adriatic benthic community: Distribution,standing crop and composition of the macrobenthos

The boundaries as well as the macro-epibenthic biomass distribution and composition of a North Adriatic benthic community, dominated by the brittle star Ophiothrix quinquemaculata (D.Ch.), the sponges Reniera ssp., and the ascidians Microcosmus ssp. were determined. Transects totalling more than 80 km (i.e., a recorded area of approximately 150 000 m²) were taken by means of a combined TV- and photocamera sled. The observations, TV-recordings, and photos, together with 392 diver-collected quantitative samples were evaluated. The biomass values were used to establish isobenths. Within the community, the mean biomass, measured as wet weight, amounted to 370 (±73) g/m² with maxima of more than 1000 g/m². 64% of the biomass was due to the designating group Ophiothrix-Reniera-Micrcosmus, 87.5% were represented by filter- and suspension-feeding species alone. The mean biomass in the peripheral areas was evaluated at 166 (±62) g/m². Biomass distribution and composition is examined, and the ecological function and meaning of the observed patterns is discussed.This investigation was carried out within the frame of a joint programme between the Lehrkanzel für Meeresbiologie, University of Vienna, and the Marine Biological Station, Portoroz, University of Ljubljana.