Evaluating households’ preferences regarding reducing power outages in rural areas: cases in the Ganges Floodplain in Bangladesh

This paper investigates household preferences regarding an improved supply of electricity in rural Bangladesh, where the expansion of stable electricity is an urgent policy issue. The paper examines household preferences regarding reductions in the frequency and duration of power outages. It also examines prior notification mechanisms that do not necessarily provide an increased supply of electricity but that allow households to prepare for potential power failures. A questionnaire survey designed as a choice experiment was applied to households to elicit preferences. The econometric analysis reveals that villagers prefer a reduction in both the frequency and duration of power outages and a 1-day prior notification of power outages. There are slight disparities in preferences according to the season and the timing of improvements (e.g., summer or winter and all day or peak hours). Thus, the present study may be beneficial for policymakers when considering the provision of electricity supply improvements in rural areas in exchange for slight increases in electricity tariffs.     

An interactive simulation and visualization tool for flood analysis usable for practitioners

Developing strategies to mitigate or to adapt to the threats of floods is an important topic in the context of climate changes. Many of the world’s cities are endangered due to rising ocean levels and changing precipitation patterns. It is therefore crucial to develop analytical tools that allow us to evaluate the threats of floods and to investigate the influence of mitigation and adaptation measures, such as stronger dikes, adaptive spatial planning, and flood disaster plans. Up until the present, analytical tools have only been accessible to domain experts, as the involved simulation processes are complex and rely on computational and data-intensive models. Outputs of these analytical tools are presented to practitioners (i.e., policy analysts and political decision-makers) on maps or in graphical user interfaces. In practice, this output is only used in limited measure because practitioners often have different information requirements or do not trust the direct outcome. Nonetheless, literature indicates that a closer collaboration between domain experts and practitioners can ensure that the information requirements of practitioners are better aligned with the opportunities and limitations of analytical tools. The objective of our work is to present a step forward in the effort to make analytical tools in flood management accessible for practitioners to support this collaboration between domain experts and practitioners. Our system allows the user to interactively control the simulation process (addition of water sources or influence of rainfall), while a realistic visualization allows the user to mentally map the results onto the real world. We have developed several novel algorithms to present and interact with flood data. We explain the technologies, discuss their necessity alongside test cases, and introduce a user study to analyze the reactions of practitioners to our system. We conclude that, despite the complexity of flood simulation models and the size of the involved data sets, our system is accessible for practitioners of flood management so that they can carry out flood simulations together with domain experts in interactive work sessions. Therefore, this work has the potential to significantly change the decision-making process and may become an important asset in choosing sustainable flood mitigations and adaptation strategies.     

Predicting δCDIC dynamics in CCS: A scheme based on a review of inorganic carbon chemistry under elevated pressures and temperatures

Stable carbon isotopes are important tools to assess potential storage sites for CO₂, as they allow the quantification of ionic trapping via isotope mass balances. In deep geological formations high p/T conditions need to be considered, because CO₂ dissolution, equilibrium constants and isotope fractionation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) depend on temperature, pressure and solute composition. After reviewing different approaches to account for these dependencies, an expanded scheme is presented for speciation and carbon isotope fractionation of DIC and dissolution of CaCO₃ for pCO₂ up to 100 bar, pH down to 3 and temperatures of up to 200 °C. The scheme evaluates the influence of respective parameters on isotope ratios during CO₂ sequestration. The pCO₂ and pH are the dominant controlling factors in the DIC/δ¹³C/pH system. The fugacity of CO₂ has major impact on DIC concentrations at temperatures below 100 °C at high pCO₂. Temperature dependency of activities and equilibrium dominates at temperatures above 100 °C. Isotope ratios of DIC are expected to be about 1–2‰ more depleted in ¹³C compared to the free CO₂ at pCO₂ values above 10 bar. This depletion is controlled by carbon isotope fractionation between CO₂ and H₂CO₃* which is the dominant species of DIC at the resulting pH below 5.     

On the importance of life history and age structure in biological invasions

The age specific patterns of reproduction and mortality dictated by the life history of an organism apply to potential invaders as well as resident species of an area, but whether certain life history traits are more invasive than others is an unresolved issue. We analyze a two-population system of an invading and a resident species and test the effects of age on the probability to invade when the organisms are iteroparous or semelparous. The life history characteristics of the populations are projected in Leslie matrices, and the probability that the invader exceeds different population sizes is calculated by Monte Carlo analysis. The simulations show that (a) the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism increases with age until the individuals introduced are mature for first reproduction, and then becomes independent of age; (b) the invasion probability is more age sensitive for iteroparous organisms with high juvenile mortality (Type III organisms) than for those with a lower (Type I); (c) invading semelparous organisms are most affected by competition from resident organisms; (d) variations in vital rates of semelparous residents have greater influence on the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism than variations in traits of the invader.     

Legitimacy of urban climate change adaptation: a case in Helsinki

While there is general agreement on the necessity for local adaptation, there is a wide range of different understandings of what type of adaptation is seen as legitimate. It is often contested who should actively steer and take part in local adaptation, for which reasons and based on what kind of mandate, and with which methods. Planning theory can serve as a helpful reference point for examining the sources of legitimacy for adaptation in an urban context. From a planning perspective, adaptation is concerned with climate change as one out of many issues planning has to respond to. The layered co-existence of planning paradigms in practice suggests diverse, sometimes contradictory sources of legitimacy for urban planning and—as we claim here—also for climate change adaptation. This study examines the legitimacy of adaptation from a planning theoretical perspective in Helsinki, drawing on semi-structured interviews and social network analysis to show how adaptation is commonly understood from a rationalist perspective as an apolitical activity with local authorities’ experts designing and implementing adaptation. Nevertheless, some of the central actors understand adaptation as a communicative activity and a common deliberation of solutions. The co-occurrence of disparate paradigms results in ambiguous legitimacy that can impede the successful implementation of local climate change adaptation.     

应用体内和体外方法评价原油水溶性组分和原油污染的地表水对淡水生物的内分泌干扰潜力

目前关于原油对淡水水生脊椎动物内分泌信号的潜在影响的认知有限。本文以非洲爪蟾(爪蟾属,X. laevis)蝌蚪和莫桑比克罗非鱼幼鱼(口孵非鲫属,O. mossambicus)为研究对象,选择风化原油和未风化提炼后的原油这2种原油的水溶性组分(WAFs)进行暴露实验,选择出可作为内分泌信号改变的生物标志物的基因,对其表达进行了研究。此外,将X. laevis蝌蚪暴露于靠近地下石油库的地表水中,对上述基因表达做了定量分析。利用重组酵母对原油、原油水溶性组分和地表水的(抗)雌激素和(抗)雄激素性进行了评价。在X. laevis对2种原油WAFs的响应中,甲状腺激素受体β表达均显著下调,而另一种与甲状腺相关的基因,2型脱碘酶,在O. mossambicus暴露于高浓度的原油WAF时被上调。此外,这2种WAFs都改变了与脂肪生成相关的过氧化物酶体增殖物激活受体γ在X. laevis中的表达。原油和WAFs在体外表现出抗雌激素和抗雄性激素的活性。然而,O. mossambicus雄激素受体2作为唯一一个代表生殖系统的基因,受到WAF暴露的影响显著。在地表水样品中发现了雌激素、抗雌激素和抗雄激素的作用;但是,在暴露于地表水的X. laevis中没有观察到任何基因表达的明显变化。在所用的2种模式生物以及2种原油中,响应各不相同。尽管如此,这些数据提供了证据证明原油污染可能会因内分泌信号转变对淡水鱼和两栖动物的健康造成不利影响。
精选自Truter, J. C., van Wyk, J. H., Oberholster, P. J., Botha, A.-M. and Mokwena, L. M. (2017), An evaluation of the endocrine disruptive potential of crude oil water accommodated fractions and crude oil contaminated surface water to freshwater organisms using in vitroand in vivo approaches. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 1330–1342. doi: 10.1002/etc.3665
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3665/full
     

Plant Communities,Soil Carbon,and Soil Nitrogen Properties in a Successional Gradient of Sub-Alpine Meadows on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau of China

To assess the recovery trajectory and self-maintenance of restored ecosystems, a successional gradient (1, 3, 5, 15, and 30 years after abandonment) was established in a sub-alpine meadow of the eastern Tibetan Plateau in China. Plant communities and soil carbon and nitrogen properties were investigated and analyzed. Regression analyses were used to assess the models (linear or quadratic) relating measures of species richness, soil carbon and nitrogen properties to fallow time. We found that species richness (S) increased over the first 20 years but decreased thereafter, and aboveground biomass showed a linear increase along the fallow time gradient. The richness of different functional groups (forb, grass and legume) changed little along the fallow time gradient, but their corresponding above ground biomass showed the U-shaped, humped or linear pattern. Soil microbial carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN) in the upper 20 cm showed a U-shaped pattern along the fallow time gradient. However, soil organic carbon (C_org) and total nitrogen (TN) in the soil at depth greater than 20 cm showed significant patterns of linear decline along the fallow time gradient. The threshold models of species richness reflected best the recovery over the 15 year fallow period. These results indicated that fallow time had a greater influence on development of the plant community than soil processes in abandoned fields in sub-alpine meadow ecosystem. These results also suggested that although the succession process did not significantly increase soil C, an increase in microbial biomass at the latter stage of succession could promote the decomposability of plant litter. Therefore, abandoned fields in sub-alpine meadow ecosystem may have a high resilience and strong rehabilitating capability under natural recovery condition.