Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Constructing and justifying risk and accountability after extreme events: public administration and stakeholders’ responses to a wildfire disaster

ABSTRACT

The impacts of extreme weather events, causing severe storms and wildfires, cascade across administrative borders within a country, challenging the steering capacity of governance networks at different political scales. This paper examines how accountability and risk were constructed and negotiated in the aftermath of Sweden’s largest wildfire. It draws on results from an interview study with executives of organizations and landowners involved, and an analysis of government reports about the wildfire’s cause and consequences. Although the fire was human-caused, public administrative bodies paid considerable attention to the local emergency services and their poor handling of the wildfire, caused by lack of knowledge of forest fire behavior. The study confirms many of the challenges associated with governance networks. It finds that issues about who to hold accountable, in what forum and for what issue are not fully addressed, being overwhelmed by demands for better knowledge of forest fire prevention and improved coordination and collaboration. To conclude, the paper calls for a better-informed public administration, forest sector and interrelated networks that take responsibility for their actions or lack thereof.     

Prenatal measurement of the fetal cerebellum and cisterna cerebellomedullaris by ultrasound

The fetal cerebellum can be visualized with ultrasound throughout the second trimester. We describe a technique for measuring the transverse and anteroposterior cerebellar diameters and the measurement of the cisterna magna in the same plane between 14 and 32 weeks gestation. Nomograms for these measurements against gestational age showed good correlation, and narrow confidence limits for the transverse cerebellar diameter. The transverse cerebellar diameter was also measured directly in 79 fetuses after mid-trimester abortion and the measurements obtained were compared with the ultrasound TCD nomogram. Good correlation, was obtained between the post mortem measurements and the ultrasound TCD nomogram. Routine use of these measurements and nomograms should prove valuable in the diagnosis of congenital abnormality of the posterior fossa and may also be of use in assessing the effect of severe intrauterine growth retardation and other insults on cerebellar growth and development. The narrow confidence limits obtained with the TCD nomogram should enable it to be used with confidence in clinical practice.     

Uncertainties and recommendations

An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.     

Improved recycling with life cycle information tagged to the product

Rising demand for product means that the recycling of materials is now more important than ever, saving a lot of energy embedded in materials, thus reducing CO₂ emissions. Providing relevant information can raise the recycling efficiency, which is too low at present.A Recycling Information Matrix (RIM) concentrating on Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) is suggested in order to facilitate and improve materials recycling. Each RIM focuses on a recycling target, and for each type of product a WEEE vector is constructed. The WEEE vector contains nine hexadecimal numbers where core-recycling info is stored.The WEEE vector can provide direct recycling information escorting the product. Another possibility is to individually identify every single product via RFID technology, giving the potential to look for relevant recycling information in databases. This offers the opportunity to add waste-handling information after the product has entered the market. This would be useful, for example, in tracking substances regarded as non-toxic at time of production which might later be proven to be the opposite.This paper is based on study visits at recycling facilities in Sweden and on many student EcoDesign projects including disassembly of consumer products. Research is done on a focused disassembly of dishwashers and on a polymer recycling experiment at a recycling plant for freezers and refrigerators. Possible escort memories are also studied, especially Radio Frequency Identification Devices (RFID).     

Material hygiene: improving recycling of WEEE demonstrated on dishwashers

There must be a change in attitude towards end-of-life products. The view that these products pose a liability must be changed. Secondary material is valuable as raw material. Thus, activities encouraging changes in opinion are important.Two major EU directives guide the recycling process; the Directive of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV) and the Directive of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE). Both focus on the input of the recycling system, not on what is coming out of the system.The WEEE Directive is the legislation on the European level that governs the handling and processing of these types of products. The WEEE Directive is not only aimed at stricter handling and reduction of hazardous materials but also encourages EU member states to support technical development in order to facilitate increased recycling.In order to properly address these issues a mind-set, material hygiene, has been introduced. The basic idea is to act, in every life cycle phase of the product, towards highest possible efficiency in recycling. The outcome of useful material is in focus.A study on dishwashers is made with copper outcome as target. The results are based on Swedish conditions but general conclusions can be made. Limited design efforts can raise the outcome of valuable materials, if the recycling process is organized in an optimal manner.A theoretical concept of disassembly structures is used to draw general conclusions on the case study.Increasing product recycling suitability is one side of the problem; another is increasing effectiveness of handling and processing of end-of-life products.The purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of “material hygiene” and based on that demonstrate a method for grading structural properties in a recycling perspective. The findings presented in this paper are based on a field study in which a number of dishwashers were disassembled and analyzed.     

What determines the current presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region, a sub-arctic landscape in northern Sweden?

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Tornetr?sk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetr?sk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Tornetr?sk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations.     

Seasonal and long-term variations in the body size of planktonic copepods in the northern Baltic Sea

Seasonal and long-term variations in the body size of planktonic copepods were studied in the northern Baltic Sea. The influence of temperature, salinity and phytoplankton concentration to the body size of Eurytemora affinis, Acartia bifilosa and Limnocalanus macrurus (Calanoida) was examined at three sea areas, differing in their hydrographical and trophic conditions (an archipelago area and an enclosed bay on the SW coast of Finland in 1992 and at an open sea station in the Gulf of Bothnia in 1991). There was an inverse relationship between copepod body length and temperature, while there was a direct effect of phytoplankton concentration. According to multiple regression analysis, the relative importance of these factors varied according to species, developmental stage and study area. In the archipelago area, copepod body size was mainly determined by temperature, while in the open Gulf of Bothnia, phytoplankton concentration was usually more important. Interannual variation in the summer body length of E. affinis and A. bifilosa was examined using samples collected over 18 years (1967 to 1984) in the archipelago area. In this analysis, the inverse relationship between water temperature and copepod body size disappeared; in E. affinis the average female length correlated positively with summer temperature. We suggest that the length and timing of the study period greatly influence the investigator's view of the factors regulating copepod body size.     

Diel vertical migration and feeding patterns of Mysis mixta (Crustacea,Mysidacea) in the Baltic Sea

The extent of the nocturnal vertical migration of Mysis mixta Lilljeborg varied between early July and late October (of 1985 and 1986) in a coastal area of the Baltic Sea. Migration was more restricted in early July and late October. Seasonal changes in surface light levels and transparency were sufficient to explain the observed differences. Mysids avoided light levels above 10^-4 lux throughout the study period. Smaller juveniles migrated higher up than larger juveniles and adults. A two-layered distribution with part of the population close to the bottom was observed at night. Zooplankton were more abundant in water layers above the main concentration of mysids. M. mixta fed on phytoplankton, detritus, copepods, cladocerans, rotifers and tintinnids. Diel changes in gut fluorescence indicated a higher intake of phytoplankton at night, but levels were low compared to primarily herbivorous zooplankton. Comparisons of stomach contents of mysids caught at the bottom in the evening and in the water column at night showed a higher ingestion of zooplankton at night and of detritus during the day. Mysids caught at the bottom at night had an intermediate diet. Copepods and cladocerans constituted between 90 and 100% of ingested material by weight in all mysid groups.     

Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.