Geographic Profiling to Assess the Risk of Rare Plant Poaching in Natural Areas

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities.     

A harvest failure approach to assess the threat from an invasive species

We present the idea of using potential infringements on annual allowable harvest targets as an approach to estimate threats from invasive species to the forest products sector. The approach uses present-day harvest levels as a reference level to estimate when and where the impact of a nonnative forest pest could become economically damaging. We use a generic model that simulates spread and damage by nonnative invasive species, basic harvest and forest growth through time. The concept is illustrated with a case study of a new nonnative invasive pest, Sirex noctilio Fabricius on pine resources in eastern Canada. Impacts of invasion on wood supply, in particular, the point at which present-day harvest levels are not attainable, were identified for 77 non-overlapping geographical regions that delimit the primary wood supply areas around large mills and wood processing facilities in eastern Canada. The results identify the minimum area of a pest outbreak that could trigger harvest shortages (approximately 12.5–14 M ha of pine forests in Ontario and Quebec). Beyond this level, the amount of host resource available for harvesting in any given year declines rapidly. The failure to sustain broad-scale harvest targets may be an attractive and intuitive indicator for policy makers and regulators interested in developing control and “slow-the-spread” programs for non-native forest pests.     

Hydraulic management of a soil moisture controlled SDI wastewater dispersal system in an Alabama Black Belt soil

Rural areas represent approximately 95% of the 14000 km(2) Alabama Black Belt, an area of widespread Vertisols dominated by clayey, smectitic, shrink-swell soils. These soils are unsuitable for conventional onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) which are nevertheless widely used in this region. In order to provide an alternative wastewater dosing system, an experimental field moisture controlled subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system was designed and installed as a field trial. The experimental system that integrates a seasonal cropping system was evaluated for two years on a 500-m(2) Houston clay site in west central Alabama from August 2006 to June 2008. The SDI system was designed to start hydraulic dosing only when field moisture was below field capacity. Hydraulic dosing rates fluctuated as expected with higher dosing rates during warm seasons with near zero or zero dosing rates during cold seasons. Lower hydraulic dosing in winter creates the need for at least a two-month waste storage structure which is an insurmountable challenge for rural homeowners. An estimated 30% of dosed water percolated below 45-cm depth during the first summer which included a 30-year historic drought. This massive volume of percolation was presumably the result of preferential flow stimulated by dry weather clay soil cracking. Although water percolation is necessary for OWTS, this massive water percolation loss indicated that this experimental system is not able to effective control soil moisture within its monitoring zone as designed. Overall findings of this study indicated that soil moisture controlled SDI wastewater dosing is not suitable as a standalone system in these Vertisols. However, the experimental soil moisture control system functioned as designed, demonstrating that soil moisture controlled SDI wastewater dosing may find application as a supplement to other wastewater disposal methods that can function during cold seasons.     

Laboratory and lysimeter studies of glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid in a sand and a clay soil

Due to the increasing concern about the appearance of glyphosate [N-(phosphonomethyl)glycine] and its major metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) in natural waters, batch laboratory and lysimeter transport studies were performed to assess the potential for leaching of the compounds in two agricultural soils. Unlabeled and 14C-labeled glyphosate were added at a rate corresponding to 1.54 kg a.i. ha(-1) on undisturbed sand and clay columns. Leachate was sampled weekly during a period of 748 d for analyses of glyphosate, AMPA, total 14C, and particle-bound residues. Topsoil and subsoil samples were used for determination of glyphosate adsorption, glyphosate degradation, and formation of AMPA and its degradation. The influence of adsorption on glyphosate degradation was confirmed, giving very slow degradation rate in the clay soil (half-life 110-151 d). The kinetics of AMPA residues suggest that although AMPA is always more persistent than glyphosate when formed from glyphosate, its degradation rate can be faster than that of glyphosate. The kinetics also suggest that apart from glyphosate being transformed to AMPA, the sarcosine pathway can be just as significant. The long persistence of glyphosate was also confirmed in the lysimeter study, where glyphosate+AMPA residues constituted 59% of the initial amount of glyphosate added to the clay soil 748 d after application. Despite large amounts of precipitation in the autumn and winter after application, however, these residues were mainly located in the topsoil, and only 0.009 and 0.019% of the initial amount of glyphosate added leached during the whole study period in the sand and clay, respectively. No leaching ofAMPA occurred in the sand, whereas 0.03 g ha(-1) leached in the clay soil.     

An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: the impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia

The combined influence on the environment of all projects occurring in a single area is evaluated through cumulative impact assessments (CIA), which consider the consequences of multiple projects, each insignificant on its own, yet important when evaluated collectively. Traditionally, future human activities are included in CIA using an analytical platform, commonly based on complex models that supply precise predictions but with reduced accuracy. To compensate for the lack of accuracy in current CIA approaches, we propose a shift in the paradigm governing CIA. The paradigm shift involves a change in the focus of CIA investigations from the detailed analysis of one unlikely future to the identification of the patterns describing multiple potential future changes in the environment. To illustrate the approach, a set of 144 possible and equally likely futures were developed that aimed to identify the potential impacts of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on the habitat suitability of moose and marten in northeast British Columbia, Canada. The evolution of two measures of habitat suitability (average habitat suitability index and surface of the stands with habitat suitability index >0.5) revealed that the human activities could induce cycles in the habitat dynamics of moose and marten. The planning period of 100 years was separated into three distinct periods following a sinusoidal pattern (i.e., increase - constant - decrease in the habitat suitability measures). The attributes that could induce significant changes in the assessment of environment are the choice of harvesting age and species.     

Controlling urban air pollution caused by households: uncertainty, prices, and income

We examine the control of air pollution caused by households burning wood for heating and cooking in the developing world. Since the problem is one of controlling emissions from nonpoint sources, regulations are likely to be directed at household choices of wood consumption and combustion technologies. Moreover, these choices are subtractions from, or contributions to, the pure public good of air quality. Consequently, the efficient policy design is not independent of the distribution of household income. Since it is unrealistic to assume that environmental authorities can make lump sum income transfers part of control policies, efficient control of air pollution caused by wood consumption entails a higher tax on wood consumption and a higher subsidy for more efficient combustion technologies for higher income households. Among other difficulties, implementing a policy to promote the adoption of cleaner combustion technologies must overcome the seemingly paradoxical result that efficient control calls for higher technology subsidies for higher income households.     

Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area1

Mieno, Taro and John B. Braden, 2011. Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):713‐723. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00536.x Abstract: This paper provides the first contemporary analysis of residential water demand in humid Northeastern Illinois, in the vicinity of Chicago, and explores seasonal and income‐based differentials in the responsiveness of water use to water prices. Using a panel of system‐level data for eight water systems and controlling for seasons, weather, incomes, and community characteristics, the analysis yields low estimates of price elasticity of demand for water in line with other studies. Furthermore, price response is greater in summer and less in higher income communities. We suggest that use of seasonal pricing can help mitigate equity issues arising from differential income elasticities while taking advantage of the greater price responsiveness of summertime water use.     

Pond bank access as an approach for managing toxic cyanobacteria in beef cattle pasture drinking water ponds

Forty-one livestock drinking water ponds in Alabama beef cattle pastures during were surveyed during the late summer to generally understand water quality patterns in these important water resources. Since livestock drinking water ponds are prone to excess nutrients that typically lead to eutrophication, which can promote blooms of toxigenic phytoplankton such as cyanobacteria, we also assessed the threat of exposure to the hepatotoxin, microcystin. Eighty percent of the ponds studied contained measurable microcystin, while three of these ponds had concentrations above human drinking water thresholds set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (i.e., 0.3 μg/L). Water quality patterns in the livestock drinking water ponds contrasted sharply with patterns typically observed for temperate freshwater lakes and reservoirs. Namely, we found several non-linear relationships between phytoplankton abundance (measured as chlorophyll) and nutrients or total suspended solids. Livestock had direct access to all the study ponds. Consequently, the proportion of inorganic suspended solids (e.g., sediment) increased with higher concentrations of total suspended solids, which underlies these patterns. Unimodal relationships were also observed between microcystin and phytoplankton abundance or nutrients. Euglenoids were abundant in the four ponds with chlorophyll concentrations >?250 μg/L (and dominated three of these ponds), which could explain why ponds with high chlorophyll concentrations would have low microcystin concentrations. Based on observations made during sampling events and available water quality data, livestock-mediated bioturbation is causing elevated total suspended solids that lead to reduced phytoplankton abundance and microcystin despite high concentrations of nutrients, such as phosphorus and nitrogen. Thus, livestock could be used to manage algal blooms, including toxic secondary metabolites, in their drinking water ponds by allowing them to walk in the ponds to increase turbidity.     

GPU Accelerated Lattice Boltzmann Simulation of a Cyanide-Release Accident in the Danjiangkou Reservoir

A graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated two-dimensional contamination transport model is developed using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The intrinsic parallel features of LBM make it particularly suitable for implementation on GPUs. After validation with two benchmarks, the model was applied to a cyanide-release accident in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, using a numerical combination of hydrodynamics and solute transport. The results show good agreement with an Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model. A single GPU workstation speedup reaches 1.58 times that of a central processing unit (CPU) calculation alone. This speedup provides the opportunity for applying the model as a pollution accident information and decision support system for the Middle Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project in China.