METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

Reverse logistics in the Brazilian construction industry

In Brazil most Construction and Demolition Waste (C&D waste) is not recycled. This situation is expected to change significantly, since new federal regulations oblige municipalities to create and implement sustainable C&D waste management plans which assign an important role to recycling activities. The recycling organizational network and its flows and components are fundamental to C&D waste recycling feasibility. Organizational networks, flows and components involve reverse logistics. The aim of this work is to introduce the concepts of reverse logistics and reverse distribution channel networks and to study the Brazilian C&D waste case.     

Cytotoxicity and DNA damage of five organophosphorus pesticides mediated by oxidative stress in PC12 cells and protection by vitamin E

Previous studies have demonstrated that pesticides could induce cytotoxicity and genotoxicity in vivo and in vitro, and that oxidative stress may be an important factor involved. However, investigations comparing the capability of different organophosphorous (OP) compounds to induce cytotoxicity, genotoxicity and oxidative stress are limited. Hence, the aim of this paper was to access the cytotoxic and genotoxic effects of five OPs or metabolites, Acephate (ACE), Methamidophos (MET), Chloramidophos (CHL), Malathion (MAT) and Malaoxon (MAO), and to clarify the role of oxidative stress, using PC12 cells. The results demonstrated that MET, MAT and MAO caused significant inhibition of cell viability and increased DNA damage in PC12 cells at 40 mg L^?1. MAO was more toxic than the other OPs. ACE, MET, MAT and MAO increased the levels of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) and malondialdehyde (MDA), and decreased the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and glutathione (GSH) at 20 mg L^?1 and 40 mg L^?1 to different degrees. Pre-treatment with vitamin E(600 μM)caused a significant attenuation in the cytotoxic and genotoxic effect; pre-treatment reversed subsequent OP-induced elevation of peroxidation products and the decline of anti-oxidant enzyme activities. These results indicate that oxidative damage is likely to be an initiating event that contributes to the OP-induced cytotoxicity.     

Possible Environmental Factors Underlying Amphibian Decline in Eastern Puerto Rico: Analysis of U.S. Government Data Archives

Abstract: The past three decades have seen major declines in populations of several species of amphibians at high elevations in eastern Puerto Rico, a region unique in the humid tropics because of the degree of environmental monitoring that has taken place through the efforts of U.S. government agencies. I examined changes in environmental conditions by examining time-series data sets that extend back at least into the 1980s, a period when frog populations were declining. The data include forest cover; annual mean, minimum, and maximum daily temperature; annual rainfall; rain and stream chemistry; and atmospheric-dust transport. I examined satellite imagery and air-chemistry samples from a single National Aeronautics and Space Administration aircraft flight across the Caribbean showing patches of pollutants, described as thin sheets or lenses, in the lower troposphere. The main source of these pollutants appeared to be fires from land clearing and deforestation, primarily in Africa. Some pollutant concentrations were high and, in the case of ozone, approached health limits set for urban air. Urban pollution impinging on Puerto Rico, dust generation from Africa ( potential soil pathogens), and tropical forest burning ( gaseous pollutants) have all increased during the last three decades, overlapping the timing of amphibian declines in eastern Puerto Rico. None of the data sets pointed directly to changes so extreme that they might be considered a direct lethal cause of amphibian declines in Puerto Rico. More experimental research is required to link any of these environmental factors to this problem.     

Intranest relatedness and nestmate recognition in the meadow ant Formica pratensis (R.)

The impact of intranest relatedness on nestmate recognition was tested in a population of polydomous and monodomous nests of the mound-building ant Formica pratensis. Nestmate recognition was evaluated by testing aggression levels between 37 pairs of nests (n=206 tests). Workers from donor colonies were placed on the mounds of recipient nests to score aggressive interactions among workers. A total of 555 workers from 27 nests were genotyped using four DNA microsatellites. The genetic and spatial distances of nests were positively correlated, indicating budding and/or fissioning as spread mechanisms. Monodomous and polydomous nests did not show different aggression levels. Aggression behavior between nests was positively correlated with both spatial distance and intranest relatedness of recipient colonies, but not with genetic distance or intranest relatedness of donor colonies. Multiple regression analysis revealed a stronger effect of spatial distance than of genetics on aggression behavior in this study, indicating that the relative importance of environment and genetics can be variable in F. pratensis. Nevertheless, the positive regression between intranest relatedness of recipient colonies and aggression in the multiple analysis supports earlier results that nestmate recognition is genetically influenced in F. pratensis and further indicates that foreign label rejection most likely explains our data.