祸兮福所倚

英语中有一句谚语：“事情总有好的一面”,人们相信不幸有时能够转化为幸运的事。2008年,中国经受了一系列灾难——出人预料的雪灾、地震、洪水,以及过去几年我们享受的表面上经济繁荣的最后“崩溃”,从中我们能够得到什么呢？我们是否可以从这些可怕的事件中寻找到些许安慰？     

Changes in functional structure of soil bacterial communities due to fungicide and insecticide applications in canola

The fungicide vinclozolin and insecticide λ-cyhalothrin are widely used to control canola (Brassica spp.) diseases and insect pests, respectively, in Canada. We investigated non-target effects of these pesticides, applied at recommended rates, on soil microbial biomass, functional bacterial diversity and functional community structure of soil bacteria (by evaluating patterns of C substrate utilization) in canola rhizosphere and bulk soil at three locations in Alberta from 2002 to 2004. Experimental treatments were (a) untreated control, (b) vinclozolin fungicide foliar application, (c) λ-cyhalothrin insecticide foliar application, and (d) vinclozolin and λ-cyhalothrin applications. No significant pesticide effects on soil microbial biomass or functional bacterial diversity were observed, but the functional structures of soil bacteria were altered. In 1 of 12 cases, the control treatment had a different soil bacterial community structure from the 3 pesticide treatments. The fungicide treatment had different bacterial community structures from the control or insecticide treatments in 3 of 12 cases, the insecticide treatment had different community structures from the control or fungicide treatments in 4 of 12 cases, and the combined fungicide and insecticide treatment had different community structures from the other treatments in 3 of 12 cases. Therefore, evaluating soil bacterial functional structures revealed pesticide effects that were not detected when bacterial diversity or microbial biomass were measured in canola rhizosphere or bulk soil.     

Recilia banda Kramer (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae), a vector of Napier stunt phytoplasma in Kenya

Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum) is the most important fodder crop in smallholder dairy production systems in East Africa, characterized by small zero-grazing units. It is also an important trap crop used in the management of cereal stemborers in maize in the region. However, production of Napier grass in the region is severely constrained by Napier stunt disease. The etiology of the disease is known to be a phytoplasma, 16SrXI strain. However, the putative insect vector was yet unknown. We sampled and identified five leafhopper and three planthopper species associated with Napier grass and used them as candidates in pathogen transmission experiments. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR), based on the highly conserved 16S gene, primed by P1/P6-R16F2n/R16R2 nested primer sets was used to diagnose phytoplasma on test plants and insects, before and after transmission experiments. Healthy plants were exposed for 60 days to insects that had fed on diseased plants and acquired phytoplasma. The plants were then incubated for another 30 days. Nested PCR analyses showed that 58.3% of plants exposed to Recilia banda Kramer (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) were positive for phytoplasma and developed characteristic stunt disease symptoms while 60% of R. banda insect samples were similarly phytoplasma positive. We compared the nucleotide sequences of the phytoplasma isolated from R. banda, Napier grass on which these insects were fed, and Napier grass infected by R. banda, and found them to be virtually identical. The results confirm that R. banda transmits Napier stunt phytoplasma in western Kenya, and may be the key vector of Napier stunt disease in this region.     

Management and Limnology Interact to Drive Water Temperature Patterns in a Middle Rockies River‐Reservoir System

This study seeks to improve understanding of temperature patterns in reservoir outflows. We examined water temperatures in an irrigation storage reservoir, Island Park Reservoir, and its outflow, Henry’s Fork of the Snake River in eastern Idaho. Our objectives were to (1) quantify the extent to which daily temperature ranges in the reservoir outflow deviated from other reaches of the Henry’s Fork, and (2) test whether the reservoir’s net volume change during the summer — expressed as the volume of water remaining in the reservoir on September 1 — predicted mean summer temperature in the outflow. Two years of temperature data showed dampened diel temperature cycles in the reservoir outflow. Model selection with 17 years of climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir management variables found mean summer temperature in the outflow was best predicted by September 1 reservoir volume and average summer air temperature. Two years of weekly reservoir thermal profiles indicated large changes in reservoir volume eliminated cool hypolimnetic water and encouraged mixing, allowing warm epilimnetic water to be discharged into the outflow. Increases in future drought frequency and severity and increases in summer air temperatures could increase the frequency of occurrence of high mean summertime water temperatures in the outflow. Our study provides important information for local managers by quantifying influences on outflow temperatures and the downstream river ecosystem.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Habitat Improvements and Fish Community Response Associated with an Agricultural Two‐Stage Ditch in Mower County,Minnesota

Water quality and stream habitat in agricultural watersheds are under greater scrutiny as hydrologic pathways are altered to increase crop production. Ditches have been traditionally constructed to remove water from agricultural lands. Little attention has been placed on alternative ditch designs that are more stable and provide greater habitat diversity for wildlife and aquatic species. In 2009, 1.89 km of a conventional drainage ditch in Mower County, Minnesota, was converted to a two‐stage ditch (TSD) with small, adjacent floodplains to mimic a natural system. Cross section surveys, conducted pre‐ and post‐construction, generally indicate a stable channel with minor adjustments over time. Vegetation surveys showed differences in species composition and biomass between the slopes and the benches, with changes ongoing. Longitudinal surveys demonstrated a 12‐fold increase in depth variability. Fish habitat quality improved with well‐sorted gravel riffles and deeper pool habitat. The biological response to improved habitat quality was investigated using a Fish Index of Biological Integrity (FIBI). Our results show higher FIBI scores post‐construction with scores more similar to natural streams. In summary, the TSD demonstrated improvements in riparian and instream habitat quality and fish communities, which showed greater fish species richness, higher percentages of gravel spawning fish, and better FIBI scores. This type of management tool could benefit ditches in other regions where gradient and geology allow.     

Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

We investigate the sensitivity of phosphorus loading (mass/time) in an urban stream to variations in climate using nondimensional sensitivity, known as elasticity, methods commonly used by economists and hydrologists. Previous analyses have used bivariate elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but such bivariate relations cannot reflect the complex multivariate nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using fixed‐effect multivariate regression methods, we obtain two phosphorus models (nonparametric and parametric) for an urban stream with high explanatory power that can both estimate phosphorus loads and the elasticity of phosphorus loading to changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. A case study demonstrates total phosphorus loading depends significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow events, and flow rate, yet the elasticity of total phosphorus to all these factors remains relatively constant throughout the year. The elasticity estimates reported here can be used to examine how nutrient loads may change under future climate conditions.     

Search for a natural scientific measure of economy

Through human history, wealth has been measured in grain, gold, and, now, dollars. Though counterfeiting of coins and notes goes back a long way, it is only with electronic financial accounting in a global economy tainted by toxic loans and imaginary funds that there is an urgency to search for a realistic objective way to monitor and regulate what we are doing to our Earth and ourselves. Various schemes using analysis of utility functions, oil equivalents, entropy, energy, and other units have been tried and, while helping to understand some basic processes and flows, have always been swamped by the machinations of financiers and the attention big sums of money attract. Now, the concept of exergy, pioneered in Eastern Europe in the 1950s, is being researched, developed, and applied, especially in China, driven by the desperation to measure the reality beyond the twin specters of global financial and environmental crises. A rough inventory of the matter in the biosphere at the coordinate details of an angstrom and an appreciation of how humans harness and manipulate electromagnetic forces can be enlightening as to what is and is not sustainable. Without that understanding, any financial estimate and proposed stimulus packages or IMF reform will be wildly wrong and may even be headed in the wrong direction.     

Long Term Trends in Liver Neoplasm Epizootics of Brown Bullhead in the Black River, Ohio

Since 1980, liver neoplasms in brown bullhead and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in sediment have been researched in a series of studies on the Black River in Lorain, Ohio. In the early 1980s the liver cancer prevalence in fish of age 3 and older was high, ranging from 22% to 39% of the adult population. These high cancer rates corresponded to high levels of PAHs in the sediment resulting from long-term releases by an upstream coking facility (USX). In 1983 this coking plant was closed, and by 1987 the PAH in sediment had declined by about two orders of magnitude. Coincidentally the tumor prevalence in 1987 was only about one-fourth of that in the early 1980s. In 1990, the most contaminated sediments were dredged. Neoplasm surveys in 1992 and 1993 found liver tumor frequencies in mature bullhead were as high as or higher than in the early 1980s. However liver tumor incidence declined in 1994, especially among age 3 fish, where neoplasm incidence was zero. These age 3 fish were the first group sampled that were not present during the 1990 dredging. These data are consistent with a hypothesis that the increase in tumor prevalence in 1992 and 1993 was caused by exposure to buried PAH-contaminated sediments released by the dredging. This research points out the insight provided by long term effects studies.