Examination of model predictions at different horizontal grid resolutions

While fluctuations in meteorological and air quality variables occur on a continuum of spatial scales, the horizontal grid spacing of coupled meteorological and photochemical models sets a lower limit on the spatial scales that they can resolve. However, both computational costs and data requirements increase significantly with increasing grid resolution. Therefore, it is important to examine, for any given application, whether the expected benefit of increased grid resolution justifies the extra costs. In this study, we examine temperature and ozone observations and model predictions for three high ozone episodes that occurred over the northeastern United States during the summer of 1995. In the first set of simulations, the meteorological model RAMS4a was run with three two-way nested grids of 108/36/12 km grid spacing covering the United States and the photochemical model UAM-V was run with two grids of 36/12 km grid spacing covering the eastern United States. In the second set of simulations, RAMS4a was run with four two-way nested grids of 108/36/12/4 km grid spacing and UAM-V was run with three grids of 36/12/4 km grid spacing with the finest resolution covering the northeastern United States. Our analysis focuses on the comparison of model predictions for the finest grid domain of the simulations, namely, the region overlapping the 12 km and 4 km domains. A comparison of 12 km versus 4 km fields shows that the increased grid resolution leads to finer texture in the model predictions; however, comparisons of model predictions with observations do not reveal the expected improvement in the predictions. While high-resolution modeling has scientific merit and potential uses, the currently available monitoring networks, in conjunction with the scarceness of highly resolved spatial input data and the limitations of model formulation, do not allow confirmation of the expected superiority of the high-resolution model predictions.The U.S. Governments right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Systemic retention of ingested cantharidin by frogs

Summary Frogs(Rana pipiens) fed on blister beetles (Meloidae) or cantharidin, retain cantharidin systemically. After cessation of feeding, they void the compound relatively quickly. Systemic cantharidin does not protect frogs against ectoparasitic feeding by leeches(Hirudo medicinalis) or predation by snakes(Nerodia sipedon). As suggested by our data, and from reports in the early literature, ingestion of cantharidin-containing frogs can pose a health threat to humans.Paper no. 95 of the seriesDefense Mechanisms of Arthropods; no. 94 is LaMunyon & Eisner, Psyche (in press)     

The perturbation of historical pollution records in aquatic sediments

It is often claimed that coastal marine and freshwater lake sediments preserve temporal records of anthropogenic input of heavy metals to the environment since the onset of the Industrial Revolution. Growing evidence of perturbatory factors such as physical and biological mixing, other redistributional processes and the early post-depositional diagenetic release and mobility of some elements is reviewed. Fundamental requirements of future studies are outlined.     

Current versus future reproduction: an experimental test of parental investment decisions using nest desertion by mallards (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Anas platyrhynchos</Emphasis>)

Past investment in offspring may be important in determining a parent's ability to reproduce in the future and, hence, should affect the relative value of current offspring. However, there have been surprisingly few clear tests of whether animals actually adjust parental care in response to diminished opportunities for future reproduction. We modified the experimental protocol of Sargent and Gross [Behav Ecol Sociobiol (1985) 17:43–45] to examine offspring desertion by mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos), and decoupled the influence of past investment from expected current benefits by controlling for the effect of offspring age on clutch value. Using 9 years of nest mortality data, we accounted for the increasing prospects of egg survival with clutch age by calculating clutch sizes throughout incubation with equivalent expected benefits. Applying this approach, we experimentally reduced 203 clutches at two different incubation stages such that they had equivalent expected benefits but differed in the amount of past investment. Nest desertion rates did not differ between early- and late-incubated clutches that had equivalent expected benefits. Rather, the probability of desertion increased with the severity of the clutch reduction treatment. These results suggest that female mallards adjust parental care according to the expected benefits of current offspring, rather than to diminished prospects for future reproduction due to past investment. We further examined whether females assessed expected benefits on the basis of clutch size alone or clutch size adjusted for the age of the clutch. Using Akaike's Information Criterion, the most parsimonious model to explain the probability of deserting an experimentally reduced clutch included both the proportion of the clutch remaining and clutch age. Thus, female mallards appear to fine-tune their level of parental care not only according to the relative number of offspring in the clutch, but also to the increased prospects for offspring survival as they age.     

Amino acid uptake by the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense

A toxic axenic strain of Alexandrium fundyense is shown to be capable of removing dissolved free amino acids (DFAAs) until concentrations are similar (low nM) to those found in natural waters. Uptake is greatest during exponential growth, rather than during C and/or N-stress as is usual in diatoms and other flagellates. A wide range of amino acids can be taken up, their concentration being decreased within a few hours to the levels observed prior to DFAA addition. The maximum rate of DFAA-N uptake, during early exponential phase, was 0.8 pmol-N cell⁻¹ h⁻¹, equivalent to ≃20% of the total N requirement. More typically, the contribution of DFAA-N was only ≃5%. However, these uptake rates are not sustainable. It is apparent that this organism cannot use amino-N to support significant growth, even though it can take up DFAAs. This, and the fact that the composition of the internal amino acid pool differed from that externally, is further evidence that the N-physiology of this genus is abnormal (differences to other dinoflagellates include an abnormally high concentration of glutamine and arginine, an effective absence of amine X, and release of nitrite during the␣concurrent assimilation of nitrate and ammonium in␣darkness). There is no evidence that the use of DFAAs enhance toxin content, except when cells are supplied with very high (unnatural) concentrations of arginine. Received: 8 May 1989 / Accepted: 14 September 1998