Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.     

Evaluation of discrete host–parasitoid models for diamondback moth and Diadegma semiclausum field time population density series

The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models.     

The effects of temperature and salinity on reproductive success of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Temora longicornis</Emphasis> in the Baltic Sea: a copepod coping with a tough situation

At specific locations within the Baltic Sea, thermoclines and haloclines can create rapid spatial and temporal changes in temperature (T) and salinity (S) exceeding 10°C and 9 psu with seasonal ranges in temperature exceeding 20°C. These wide ranges in abiotic factors affect the distribution and abundance of Baltic Sea copepods via species-specific, physiological-based impacts on vital rates. In this laboratory study, we characterized the influence of T and S on aspects of reproductive success and naupliar survival of a southwestern Baltic population of Temora longicornis (Copepoda: Calanoida). First, using ad libitum feeding conditions, we measured egg production (EP, no. of eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹) at 12 different temperatures between 2.5 and 24°C, observing the highest mean EP at 16.9°C (12 eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹). Next, the effect of S on EP and hatching success (HS, %) was quantified at 12°C for cohorts that had been acclimated to either 8, 14, 20 or 26 psu and tested at each of five salinities (8, 14, 20, 26 and 32 psu). The mean EP was highest for (and maximum EP similar among) 14, 20 and 26 psu cohorts when tested at their acclimation salinity whereas EP was lower at other salinities. For adults reared at 8 psu, a commonly encountered salinity in Baltic surface waters, EP was relatively low at all test salinities—a pattern indicative of osmotic stress. When incubated at 12°C and 15 different salinities between 0 and 34 psu, HS increased asymptotically with increasing S and was maximal (82.6–84.3%) between 24 and 26 psu. However, HS did depend upon the adult acclimation salinity. Finally, the 48-h survival of nauplii hatched and reared at 14 psu at one of six different temperatures (10, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 20°C) was measured after exposure to a novel salinity (either 7 or 20 psu). Upon exposure to 7 psu, 48-h naupliar mortality increased with increasing temperature, ranging from 26.7% at 10°C to 63.2% at 20°C. In contrast, after exposure to 20 psu, mortality was relatively low at all temperatures (1.7% at 10°C and ≤26.7% for all other temperatures). An intra-specific comparison of EP for three different T. longicornis populations revealed markedly different temperature optima and clearly demonstrated the negative impact of brackish (Baltic) salinities. Our results provide estimates of reproductive success and early survival of T. longicornis to the wide ranges of temperatures and salinities that will aid ongoing biophysical modeling examining climate impacts on this species within the Baltic Sea.     

Risk to humans of consuming metals in anchovy (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Coilia</Emphasis> sp.) from the Yangtze River Delta

Concentrations of metals were determined in four species of anchovy (Coilia sp.) from the Yangtze River, Taihu Lake, and Hongze Lake in Jiangsu Province, China. Concentrations of Cr in anchovy fish muscle ranged from 2.6 × 10⁻² to 5.0 mg/kg ww, and Coilia nasus taihuensis in Jiaoshan, Taihu Lake contained the highest concentrations of Cr, which was almost 111-fold higher than the mean value at other locations. Concentrations of Pb ranged from 1.5 × 10⁻² to 1.3 × 10⁻¹ mg/kg ww. Comparisons of concentrations of lead (Pb) among the four species indicated that anadromous species contained higher concentrations of Pb than did freshwater species. However, concentrations of Pb in C. nasus from the Nanjing and Haimen locations in the Yangtze River were not significant higher than those of two freshwater species: C. nasus taihuensis from Taihu Lake and C. brachygnathus from Hongze Lake (Duncan’s test, α = 0.05). While concentrations of Cd and Zn ranged from 7.0 × 10⁻⁴ to 3.6 × 10⁻³ mg/kg ww and 3.4 to 4.8 mg/kg ww, respectively, there were no significant differences in concentrations among the eight locations. The only concentration of the metals studied that exceeded the Chinese National Standard was Cr in Coilia from Jiaoshan, Taihu Lake, which was 2.5-fold higher than the standard. These results indicate that people who consume the genus Coilia are not at risk due to concentrations of metals, except Cr in C. nasus taihuensis from Jiaoshan in Taihu Lake. Concentrations of all of the metals studied except for Cr were similar to or less than those of metals in most other areas in the world.     

Explaining the effects of transformational leadership: an investigation of the effects of higher‐order motives in multilevel marketing organizations

Multilevel marketing organizations (MLMs) are a rapidly growing organizational type enlisting nearly 10 million members and producing over 20 billion dollars in sales annually. Despite their remarkable recent growth, few studies have examined these unusual organizations, and none of these have addressed issues of transformational leadership. In MLMs, the key leadership relationships are those between individual member distributors and the members who recruited them into the organization (i.e., their ‘sponsors’). Although sponsors are expected to provide leadership to the members they recruit, they possess no direct supervisory resulting—authority in an uncertain ‘quasi‐leadership’ role. Using a sample of 736 female MLM members, the present study empirically tests an important explanatory component of transformational leadership theory: that belief in the higher purpose of one's work is a mechanism through which transformational leadership achieves its positive outcomes on cohesion, satisfaction, effort, and performance. The results offer support to the notion that transformational leadership indeed ‘transforms’ followers by encouraging them to see the higher purposes in their work. Additionally, the results show positive relationships between belief in a higher purpose of one's work and job satisfaction, unit cohesion, and effort. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in risky driving behavior from age 21 to 26 years

Aim: The aim of this study was to determine whether the prevalence of risky driving behavior changed between ages 21 and 26 years, among a cohort of young people. Method: This study was part of the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, which is a longitudinal study of a birth cohort. This study involved examining changes in the prevalence of risky driving behavior among young adults at ages 21 and 26 years. At both ages, 936 members of the cohort were administered face-to-face interviews, using a structured questionnaire that included items on a range of risky driving and thrill-seeking activities. Results: The results showed that risky driving was predominantly a male activity, but by 26 years of age, many had “matured out” of this behavior. At the same time, the desire for thrill-seeking increased among the males. Among the females, there were few significant changes between ages 21 and 26 years, but at both ages, the prevalence of risky driving and thrill-seeking was relatively low. Impact on industry: These results show that the main target population for road safety interventions aimed at reducing risky driving behavior should be young, male drivers.     

Migration of colloids in discretely fractured porous media: effect of colloidal matrix diffusion

Numerical simulations of colloid transport in discretely fractured porous media were performed to investigate the importance of matrix diffusion of colloids as well as the filtration and remobilization of colloidal particles in both the fractures and porous matrix. To achieve this objective a finite element numerical code entitled COLDIFF was developed. The processes that COLDIFF takes into account include advective-dispersive transport of colloids, filtration and remobilization of colloidal particles in both fractures and porous matrix, and diffusive interactions of colloids between the fractures and porous matrix. Three sets of simulations were conducted to examine the importance of parameters and processes controlling colloid migration. First, a sensitivity analysis was performed using a porous block containing a single fracture to determine the relative importance of various phenomenological coefficients on colloid transport. The primary result of the analysis showed that the porosity of the matrix and the process of colloid filtration in fractures play important roles in controlling colloid migration. Second, simulations were performed to replicate and examine the results of a laboratory column study using a fractured shale saprolite. Results of this analysis showed that the filtration of colloidal particles in the porous matrix can greatly affect the tailing of colloid concentrations after the colloid source was removed. Finally, field-scale simulations were performed to examine the effect of matrix porosity, fracture filtration and fracture remobilization on long-term colloid concentration and migration distance. The field scale simulations indicated that matrix diffusion and fracture filtration can significantly reduce colloid migration distance. Results of all three analyses indicated that in environments where porosity is relatively high and colloidal particles are small enough to diffuse out of fractures, the characteristics of the porous matrix that affect colloid transport become more important than those of the fracture network. Because the properties of the fracture network tend to have greater uncertainty due to difficulties in their measurement relative to those of the porous matrix, prediction uncertainties associated with colloid transport in discretely fractured porous media may be reduced.     

USING REFERENCE SITES AND SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION TO ESTIMATE LONG‐TERM WATER LEVELS IN COASTAL PLAIN FORESTS1

ABSTRACT: The ability of regulators, resource managers, and consultants to assess accurately wetland hydrology is crucial when identifying and delineating wetlands. In this study, simple linear regression and long‐term (ten year) New Jersey Pinelands stream gaging and pitch pine lowland water‐level data sets were used to estimate long‐term hydroperiods at lowland test sites with short‐term (two year) records. Separate regression equations were developed for each test site using reference site data and stream gaging data, and two sets of equations for selected test sites were produced using two different short‐term periods of record. Test sites had long‐term records ranging from four to ten years, allowing validation of the regression models. Measured and predicted test site growing season water levels were similar regardless of which short‐term period of record was used. The results based on the stream gaging site data were similar, although the difference between measured and estimated growing season water levels was greater when this approach was used. Excellent agreement was found between measured and estimated frequencies of near‐surface saturation at test sites for each growing season month, and these relationships improved when cumulative, seasonal frequencies were considered. The reference wetland approach used in this study may have its greatest value in regions with both high development pressures and problem wetlands and may provide an effective way of resolving costly wetland delineation disputes.     

INFLUENCES OF WATERSHED,RIPARIAN‐CORRIDOR,AND REACH‐SCALE CHARACTERISTICS ON AQUATIC BIOTA IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Multivariate analyses and correlations revealed strong relations between watershed and riparian‐corridor land cover, and reach‐scale habitat versus fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages in 38 warmwater streams in eastern Wisconsin. Watersheds were dominated by agricultural use, and ranged in size from 9 to 71 km² Watershed land cover was summarized from satellite‐derived data for the area outside a 30‐m buffer. Riparian land cover was interpreted from digital orthophotos within 10‐, 10‐to 20‐, and 20‐to 30‐m buffers. Reach‐scale habitat, fish, and macroinvertebrates were collected in 1998 and biotic indices calculated. Correlations between land cover, habitat, and stream‐quality indicators revealed significant relations at the watershed, riparian‐corridor, and reach scales. At the watershed scale, fish diversity, intolerant fish and EPT species increased, and Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI) decreased as percent forest increased. At the riparian‐corridor scale, EPT species decreased and HBI increased as riparian vegetation became more fragmented. For the reach, EPT species decreased with embeddedness. Multivariate analyses further indicated that riparian (percent agriculture, grassland, urban and forest, and fragmentation of vegetation), watershed (percent forest) and reach‐scale characteristics (embeddedness) were the most important variables influencing fish (IBI, density, diversity, number, and percent tolerant and insectivorous species) and macroinvertebrate (HBI and EPT) communities.