Geographic Analysis of Forest Health Indicators Using Spatial Scan Statistics

Geographically explicit analysis tools are needed to assess forest health indicators that are measured over large regions. Spatial scan statistics can be used to detect spatial or spatiotemporal clusters of forests representing hotspots of extreme indicator values. This paper demonstrates the approach through analyses of forest fragmentation indicators in the southeastern United States and insect and pathogen indicators in the Pacific Northwest United States. The scan statistic detected four spatial clusters of fragmented forest including a hotspot in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. Three recurring clusters of insect and pathogen occurrence were found in the Pacific Northwest. Spatial scan statistics are a powerful new tool that can be used to identify potential forest health problems.     

Agricultural Land Use Effects on Sediment Loading and Fish Assemblages in Two Minnesota (USA) Watersheds

We examined the relationship between water quality and fish communities within two agricultural areas using a computer simulation model. Our analyses focused on a coolwater stream, Wells Creek in southeastern Minnesota, and a warmwater stream, the Chippewa River in western Minnesota. We used the Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model in relation to land use to calculate instream suspended sediment concentrations using estimates of sediment delivery, runoff, baseflow and streambank erosion, and quantified the effects of suspended sediment exposure on fish communities. We predicted the effects of agricultural practices on stream fish communities under several possible land use scenarios, with reference to current conditions. Land use changes led to reductions in sediment loading of up to 84% in Wells Creek and 49% in the Chippewa River. The reduction in sediment loading across scenarios may be directly related to a reduction in runoff by about 35% in both study areas. We found a 98% decrease in lethal concentrations of suspended sediment on fish in Wells Creek with an increase in conservation tillage, riparian buffers, and permanent vegetative cover. However, the effects of suspended sediment did not significantly decrease in the Chippewa River. This difference between study areas was likely due to differences in tolerance to suspended sediment between coolwater and warmwater fish communities and differences in topography, runoff and bank erosion between the two streams. The Minnesota Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit is jointly sponsored by the US Geological Survey, the University of Minnesota, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, and the Wildlife Management Institute.     

Destocking as a drought-mitigation strategy: clarifying rationales and answering critiques

The idea of externally assisted emergency destocking of pastoralists has gained currency in recent years: increasing the incentives for pastoralists to sell animals, or removing the constraints to selling animals in the early stages of drought. We identify two separate rationales put forward by proponents of destocking: environmental benefits and purchasing power/welfare benefits. We consider whether specific recent critiques of 'new range ecology' and specifically of 'tracking policies' do in fact provide arguments against emergency destocking in pastoralist areas. We illustrate some of these themes with a case study of a successful destocking exercise in northern Kenya where a very specific form of support was requested and received by pastoralists themselves. The sorts of destocking that work are likely to have significant effects on pastoralist purchasing power at key points of the drought cycle, but minimal effects on the environment. Clarifying these points will make it easier to promote destocking as a drought-mitigation policy.     

Public involvement in environmental assessment: the case of the nonparticipant

Public involvement is recognized by legislators, practitioners, academics, nongovernment organizations and, most importantly, affected communities, as a fundamental component of environmental assessment (EA) processes. Experience with public involvement in EA has proven, however, that despite good intentions, there are formidable barriers to participation. This paper examines this issue, largely through a case study of a new Can$120 million hog processing facility in Brandon, Canada. Primary data were collected in three phases, using multiple methodological techniques, including document review, qualitative interviews, and a mail questionnaire. Results included a diverse list of barriers to involvement, grouped into two primary categories: structural and individual. A significant structural barrier was a belief that becoming involved would not make a difference as the ultimate decision in the case was a foregone conclusion. An important individual barrier was that people did not know about the EA. Finally, the results indicated that lack of interest was not an important reason for nonparticipation.     

Picloram and napropamide sorption as affected by polymer addition and salt concentration

Polymer application to soil is a growing practice to improve soil physical properties and reduce soil erosion. Polymer addition can potentially influence herbicide and pesticide sorption in soil. The one-point distribution coefficient Kd values of two herbicides in the absence and presence of each of 10 polymers (7 polyacrylamides and 3 polysaccharides) were determined by the batch equilibrium method. The results showed that nonionic napropamide [2-(alpha-naphthoxy)-N,N-diethyl propionamide] sorption was essentially unaffected by the presence of any of the polymers. The influence of polymers on anionic picloram (4-amino-3,5,6-trichloropicolinic acid) sorption depends on the charge characteristics of polymers and salt concentrations in the solution. Electrostatic interaction and competition for sorption sites are two primary underlying mechanisms for the polymer influence. At low salt concentration, the increased picloram sorption in the presence of both cationic and anionic polymers was attributed to different electrostatic interactions and polymer partitioning between soil and solution phases. At high salt levels, the presence of polymers had either no influence or a slightly negative influence on the picloram sorption, which was attributed to competition for sorption sites. In field conditions, it is more likely that polymers have no or a slightly negative influence on herbicide sorption due to the presence of salts.     

Spatial and temporal modeling of microbial contaminants on grazing farmlands

This paper introduces an integrated spatial and temporal modeling system developed mathematically for assessing microbial contaminants on animal-grazed farmlands. The model uses fecal coliform, specifically Escherichia coli, as an indicator of fecal contamination and describes the sources, sinks, transport processes, and fate of E. coli contaminants in catchments and associated streams. Spatial features include grazing location, land topography, distance to a nearby stream, and distance through the stream network to the outlet. Temporal features are population dynamics on the land surface, in flow, and on streambeds. The model applies the principles of conservation of mass balance on two different types of pools: grid cells on land surfaces and networked stream segments. The model aims to improve the prediction of the effects of different land management strategies on the fecal contamination of waterways. This is achieved by characterizing the movement of fecal contaminants from land to streams and in-stream mobilization. Processes of attenuation, diffusion, and transport govern the movement. Our study site is a hill land catchment with an area of 140 ha and is used exclusively for animal grazing. The model was calibrated with previous research results, and then tested using the data collected at the outlet of the catchment. The sensitivity of the model predictions was analyzed for different scenarios: effect of stock rate, attenuation rate, and flow volumes. The similar pattern between monitored and predicted E. coli concentration proved that the model captures the key features that control the population dynamics of fecal contaminants. Further experiments are required to expand the model's functionality for covering more mitigation options.     

Landscape metrics and estuarine sediment contamination in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions

In a previously published study, quantitative relationships were developed between landscape metrics and sediment contamination for 25 small estuarine systems within Chesapeake Bay. These analyses have been extended to include 75 small estuarine systems across the mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions of the USA. Because of the different characteristics and dynamics of the estuaries across these regions, adjustment for differing hydrology, sediment characteristics, and sediment origins were included in the analysis. Multiple linear regression with stepwise selection was used to develop statistical models for sediment metals, organics, and total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The landscape metrics important for explaining the variation in sediment metals levels (R2 = 0.72) were the percent area of nonforested wetlands (negative contribution), percent area of urban land, and point source effluent volume and metals input (positive contributions). The metrics important for sediment organics levels (R2 = 0.5) and total PAHs (R2 = 0.46) were percent area of urban land (positive contribution) and percent area of nonforested wetlands (negative contribution). These models included silt-clay content (metals) or total organic C (organics, total PAHs) of sediments and grouping by estuarine hydrology, suggesting the importance of sediment characteristics and hydrology in mitigating the influence of the landscape metrics on sediment contamination levels. The overall results from this study are indicative of how statistical models can be developed relating landscape metrics to estuarine sediment contamination for distributions of land cover and point source discharges.     

Do vesicle cells of the red alga Asparagopsis (Falkenbergia stage) play a role in bromocarbon production?

The Rhodophyceae (red algae) are an established source of volatile halocarbons in the marine environment. Some species in the Bonnemaisoniaceae have been reported to contain large amounts of halogens in structures referred to as vesicle cells, suggesting involvement of these specialised cells in the production of halocarbons. We have investigated the role of vesicle cells in the accumulation and metabolism of bromide in an isolate of the red macroalga Asparagopsis (Falkenbergia stage), a species known to release bromocarbons. Studies of laboratory-cultivated alga, using light microscopy, revealed a requirement of bromide for both the maintenance and formation of vesicle cells. Incubation of the alga in culture media with bromide concentrations below 64 mgl(-1) (the concentration of Br(-) in seawater) resulted in a decrease in the proportion of vesicle cells to pericentral cells. The abundance of vesicle cells was correlated with bromide concentration below this level. Induction of vesicle cell formation in cultures of Falkenbergia occurred at concentrations as low as 8 mgl(-1), with the abundance of vesicle cells increasing with bromide concentration up to around 100 mgl(-1). Further studies revealed a positive correlation between the abundance of vesicle cells and dibromomethane and bromoform production. Interestingly, however, whilst dibromomethane production was stimulated by the presence of bromide in the culture media, bromoform release remained unaffected suggesting that the two compounds are formed by different mechanisms.     

Assessing chronic toxicity of bisphenol A to larvae of the African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis) in a flow-through exposure system

A number of currently used industrial chemicals are estrogenic, and therefore have potential to disrupt sexual differentiation in vertebrate wildlife during critical developmental windows. We assessed the effect of larval exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) on growth, development and sexual differentiation of the gonad in the African Clawed frog, Xenopus laevis. Larvae were maintained in flow-through conditions at 22 +/- 1 degrees C and exposed to BPA at mean measured concentrations of 0.83, 2.1, 9.5, 23.8, 100, and 497 microg/l, from developmental stages 43/45-66 (completion of metamorphosis). Each test concentration, plus dilution water control (DWC) and positive control (17beta-estradiol (E2), 2.7 microg/l) employed four replicate test vessels with 40 larvae per tank. Individual froglets were removed from test vessels upon reaching stage 66, and the study was terminated at 90 days. Froglets were dissected and sex was determined by inspection of gross gonadal morphology. Test concentrations of BPA had no effect on survival, growth, developmental stage distributions at exposure days 32 and 62, or mean time to completion of metamorphosis, compared to DWC. Analysis of post-metamorphic sex ratio, determined by gross gonadal morphology, indicated no significant deviations from expected (50:50) sex ratio, in DWC or any BPA test concentration. In contrast, exposure of larvae to (E2) resulted in feminisation, with sex ratio deviating significantly (31% male, replicates pooled). Exposure to BPA in the concentration range 0.83-497 microg/l in flow-through conditions had no observable effect on larval growth, development or sexual differentiation (as determined by gross gonadal morphology) in this study.     

Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.